The following NBA betting trends a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, January 11, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* ORLANDO is 12-2 SU and ATS in the last 14 meetings with New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-6.5 vs NOP)

* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 296-165 SU but just 192-256-13 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-13.5 vs MIA)

* PHILADELPHIA is 21-6 Over the total playing on the road in OneDayRest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-TOR (o/u at 221.5)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 37-34 SU and 32-39 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs SAS)

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 23-9 Under the total vs. teams in back-to-back away games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-MIN (o/u at 235.5)

* BROOKLYN is 11-17 SU but 19-8-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2024
* MEMPHIS is 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS playing in 4th Straight Home games since December 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY of BROOKLYN, 1 PLAY of MEMPHIS

* GOLDEN STATE is 31-31 SU and 21-38 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2023
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs ATL)

* ATLANTA is 130-95 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
* GOLDEN STATE is 128-96 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-GSW (o/u at 235.5)

* HOUSTON is 119-94 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-SAC (o/u at 222.5)

* MILWAUKEE is 6-20 SU and 6-19-1 ATS playing in 4th Straight Road games since February 2021
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at DEN)

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 92-62 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-DEN (o/u at 221.5)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 40-6 SU and 34-11-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-13.5 vs MIA)

* MIAMI is 14-5 Under the total playing in the back-to-back away scenario since February 2023
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-OKC (o/u at 234.5)

* ORLANDO is 114-82 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 20’22
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-ORL (o/u at 234.5)

* PHILADELPHIA is 21-6 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-TOR (o/u at 221.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(513) NEW ORLEANS at (514) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO is 12-2 SU and ATS in the last 14 meetings with New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-6.5 vs NOP)

(517) PHILADELPHIA at (518) TORONTO
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the 76ers-Raptors divisional rivalry in Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-TOR (o/u at 221.5)

(519) NEW YORK at (520) PORTLAND
* Under the total has converted in all four matchups between NYK and POR since the start of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-POR (o/u at 229.5)

(521) SAN ANTONIO at (522) MINNESOTA
* Over the total is 4-1 in the SAS-MIN series since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-MIN (o/u at 234.5)

(523) MIAMI at (524) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Road teams are 12-2-3 ATS in the last 17 of the MIA-OKC non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+13.5 at OKC)
* Under the total has converted in the last five meetings in Oklahoma City as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-OKC (o/u at 233.5)

(525) WASHINGTON at (526) PHOENIX
* Road teams are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the Wizards-Suns set
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+13.5 at PHX)

(527) MILWAUKEE at (528) DENVER
* MILWAUKEE has won three straight ATS in matchups with Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at DEN)

(529) ATLANTA at (530) GOLDEN STATE
* Favorites are on 11-1 SU and ATS run in ATL-GSW non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs ATL)

(531) HOUSTON at (532) SACRAMENTO
* Home teams are 8-3-1 ATS in the HOU-SAC series since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+13.5 vs HOU)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 128-103 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 237-197 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 328-255 (56.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIA-OKC (spread -13.5, total 233.5), WSH-PHX (spread -13.5, total 229.5), HOU-SAC (spread +13.5, total 222.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, home underdogs of 5 points or less have gone 15-38 SU and 18-33-2 ATS (35.3%) since late-April 2021.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+4.5 vs PHI)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams coming off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 180-104 SU but 131-149-4 ATS (46.8%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs SAC)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 296-165 SU but just 192-256-13 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-13.5 vs MIA)

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 169-207 SU and 164-208-4 ATS (44.1%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+4.5 vs NYK)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 325-340 SU and 300-357-8 ATS (45.7%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs SAS)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that come off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 189-162 SU and 194-147-10 ATS (56.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+5.5 at GSW)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 289-332-4 ATS (46.5%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+13.5 vs HOU)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1,321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:

  • Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
  • Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
  • Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
  • Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
  • Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, WASHINGTON, ATLANTA, HOUSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%).  This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, WASHINGTON, ATLANTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, BROOKLYN, WASHINGTON, DENVER, ATLANTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-ORL, NYK-POR, SAS-MIN, MIA-OKC, HOU-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January ’23.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – SAS-MIN, MIA-OKC, ATL-GSW
UNDER – NOP-ORL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-OKC

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +13.5 (+2.8)
2. SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+1.2)
3. TORONTO +4.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -6.5 (+3.2)
2. PHOENIX -14.5 (+1.9)
3. GOLDEN STATE -5.5 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +14.5 (+2.9)
2. SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+2.8)
3. BROOKLYN +6.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -13.5 (+3.0)
2. NEW YORK -4.5 (+1.0)
3. MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-DEN OVER 221.5 (+3.6)
2. PHI-TOR OVER 221.5 (+1.1)
3. NYK-POR OVER 229.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-OKC UNDER 234.5 (-2.5)
2. NOP-ORL UNDER 234.5 (-2.1)
3. HOU-SAC UNDER 222.5 (-1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +13.5 (+2.1)
2. SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+2.0)
3. TORONTO +4.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -6.5 (+4.0)
2. PHOENIX -14.5 (+3.5)
3. MEMPHIS -6.5 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-DEN OVER 221.5 (+5.2)
2. PHI-TOR OVER 221.5 (+4.9)
3. BKN-MEM OVER 220.5 (+4.4)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-ORL UNDER 234.5 (-1.7)
2. SAS-MIN UNDER 235.5 (-1.4)

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