The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, February 26, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Favorites are on an extended 25-2 SU and 22-4-1 ATS run in the last 27 of the Spurs-Nets non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at BKN) 

* NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 179-81 SU and 147-109-4 ATS (57.4%) (sub-system: 85-29 SU and 68-42-4 ATS (61.8%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-5.5 at PHX) 

* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 173-114 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last 2+ Seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-UTA (o/u at 242.5) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* ATLANTA is 136-104 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-ATL (o/u at 237.5) 

* BROOKLYN is 21-8 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since February 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-BKN (o/u at 224.5) 

* CHARLOTTE is 152-109 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-IND (o/u at 229.5) 

* ORLANDO is 120-89 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-ORL (o/u at 215.5) 

* CHICAGO is 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS (14.3%) in its last 14 games
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+4.5 vs POR) 

* PORTLAND is 17-6 Over the total (73.9%) as a favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-CHI (o/u at 234.5) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 218-276 SU but 276-210-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 at UTA)

* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 173-114 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-UTA (o/u at 242.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 108-80 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-DAL (o/u at 236.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 85-46 SU and 80-49-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
* LA CLIPPERS are 12-5 SU and 14-3 ATS playing at home with 3+ Days Rest since December 2021
System/Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+5.5 vs MIN) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(535) MIAMI at (536) PHILADELPHIA
* MIAMI is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine visits to Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+2.5 at PHI) 

(537) CHARLOTTE at (538) INDIANA
* Undedogs are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six of the CHA-IND series
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+13.5 vs CHA) 

(539) HOUSTON at (540) ORLANDO
* Over the total is 9-3-1 in the Rockets-Magic non-conference set since the start of the 2019-20 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-ORL (o/u at 215.5) 

(541) SAN ANTONIO at (542) BROOKLYN
* Favorites are on an extended 25-2 SU and 22-4-1 ATS run in the last 27 of the SAS-BKN series
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at BKN)

(543) WASHINGTON at (544) ATLANTA
* ATLANTA is on a 4-1 SU and ATS surge versus divisional foe Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-10.5 vs WSH)

(545) PORTLAND at (546) CHICAGO
* Under the total is 4-1 in the POR-CHI non-conference set since the start of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-CHI (o/u at 234.5) 

(547) SACRAMENTO at (548) DALLAS
* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the Kings-Mavs series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-DAL (o/u at 236.5)

* Underdogs are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 of the overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+6.5 at DAL) 

(549) NEW ORLEANS at (550) UTAH
* UTAH is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games hosting New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+5.5 vs NOP) 

(551) LA LAKERS at (552) PHOENIX
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Lakers-Suns divisional rivalry in Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-PHX (o/u at 220.5) 

(553) MINNESOTA at (554) LA CLIPPERS
* Underdogs are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the Twolves-Clippers set
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+5.5 vs MIN)

* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAC (o/u at 225.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 96-41 SU and 83-53-1 ATS (61%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 at UTA) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five points or more have gone 13-46 SU and 24-33-2 ATS (42.1%) in their last 59 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ORLANDO vs HOU (+3.5 CURRENTLY) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 136-108 (55.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 249-210 (54.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 341-266 (56.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHA-IND (spread +13.5, total 229.5), SAS-BKN (spread +12.5, total 224.5)
UNDER – WSH-ATL (spread -10.5, total 237.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game are 24-13 SU and 23-12-2 ATS (65.7%) since early-March 2023.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-10.5 vs WSH) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 98-65 SU and 87-74-2 ATS (54%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs MIA) 

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 179-81 SU and 147-109-4 ATS (57.4%) (sub-system: 85-29 SU and 68-42-4 ATS (61.8%) when favored by 4-points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-5.5 at PHX) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 303-171 SU but just 197-264-13 ATS (42.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at BKN), MINNESOTA (-5.5 at LAC) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 200-215 SU and 190-215-10 ATS (46.9%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-13.5 at IND) 

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 27-77 SU and 48-56 ATS (46.2%) in their last 104 tries.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+10.5 at ATL) 

Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 58-71 SU and 45-82-2 ATS (35.4%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at BKN) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5-points or more, going 93-24 SU and 64-50-3 ATS (56.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at BKN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
Teams having won their last four games and playing on a back-to-back as favorites of 4 points or more versus below-.500 teams are 52-12 SU and 39-25 ATS (60.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at BKN)

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 112-128 SU but 134-104-3 ATS (56.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+4.5 vs POR)

NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least 4-games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 38-87 SU but 69-56 ATS (55.2%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BROOKLYN (+12.5 vs SAS) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 304-348-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at BKN), CHICAGO (+4.5 vs POR)

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 73-98-1 ATS (42.7%) in the next game, including 34-49 ATS (41%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at BKN) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, SAN ANTONIO, PORTLAND, NEW ORLEANS, LA LAKERS, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%).  This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): INDIANA, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, SAN ANTONIO, PORTLAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, NEW ORLEANS, MINNESOTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in DIVISIONAL games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-UTA, LAL-PHX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – WSH-ATL, POR-CHI 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – HOU-ORL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-UTA, LAL-PHX 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +2.5 (+2.3)
2. MIAMI +2.5 (+2.2)
3. WASHINGTON +10.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -5.5 (+2.1)
2. SAN ANTONIO -12.5 (+1.3)
3. NEW ORLEANS -5.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +2.5 (+3.2)
2. MIAMI +2.5 (+2.2)
3. PHOENIX +5.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -12.5 (+0.7)
2. NEW ORLEANS -5.5 (+0.6)
3. CHARLOTTE -12.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-CHI OVER 234.5 (+1.6)
2. MIA-PHI OVER 239.5 (+1.2)
3. LAL-PHX OVER 220.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1.WSH-ATL UNDER 237.5 (-4.3)
2. CHA-IND UNDER 229.5 (-1.5)
3. SAS-BKN UNDER 224.5 (-0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +10.5 (+2.7)
2. MIAMI +2.5 (+2.5)
3. ORLANDO +2.5 (+2.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -5.5 (+2.4)
2. DALLAS -6.5 (+1.5)
3. NEW ORLEANS -5.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-CHI OVER 234.5 (+4.7)
2. SAC-DAL OVER 236.5 (+2.3)
3. LAL-PHX OVER 220.5 (+1.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-ATL UNDER 237.5 (-3.9)
2. NOP-UTA UNDER 242.5 (-3.8)
3. CHA-IND UNDER 229.5 (-1.8)

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