Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, January 1, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 293-162 SU but just 189-253-13 ATS (42.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 at DAL)
* Underdogs are on a big 14-2 ATS run in the Heat-Pistons set
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4.5 at DET)
#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS: UTA-LAC OVER 232.5 (projections have total at 237.1)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 204-262 SU but 262-196-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 at DAL)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 47-22 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
* PHILADELPHIA is 19-5 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since Nov 2024
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-DAL (o/u at 230.5)
* MIAMI is 13-6 SU and 14-5 ATS playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario since Jun 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4.5 at DET)
* UTAH is 92-62 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-LAC (o/u at 232.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 87-59 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-SAC (o/u at 227.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(519) HOUSTON at (520) BROOKLYN
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the HOU-BKN non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-BKN (o/u at 218.5)
(521) MIAMI at (522) DETROIT
* Underdogs are on a big 14-2 ATS run in the MIA-DET set
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4.5 at DET)
(523) PHILADELPHIA at (524) DALLAS
* Road teams are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five of the PHI-DAL non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 at DAL)
(525) BOSTON at (526) SACRAMENTO
* Road teams are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five of the BOS-SAC cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-9.5 at SAC)
(527) UTAH at (528) LA CLIPPERS
* Home teams are 18-5 SU and 18-4-1 ATS in the last 23 of the UTA-LAC series
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-12.5 vs UTA)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 128-100 (56.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 235-191 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 327-250 (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – HOU-BKN (spread +11.5, total 218.5), UTA-LAC (spread -12.5, total 232.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 91-62 SU and 82-69-2 ATS (54.3%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 32-17 ATS (65.3%) as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4.5 at DET)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 293-162 SU but just 189-253-13 ATS (42.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 at DAL)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 319-250 SU but 255-299-15 ATS (46%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): LA CLIPPERS (-12.5 vs UTA)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 187-200 SU and 175-202-10 ATS (46.4%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+4.5 at DET)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 144-26 SU but 73-94-3 ATS (43.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): LA CLIPPERS (-12.5 vs UTA)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DALLAS, BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a masive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT ML, SACRAMENTO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-DET, UTA-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit less than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 396-334 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 386-348 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – HOU-BKN
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DALLAS +2.5 (+1.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -9.5 (+1.8)
2. LA CLIPPERS -12.5 (+0.7)
3. DETROIT -4.5 (+0.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +9.5 (+4.0)
2. UTAH +12.5 (+0.9)
3. BROOKLYN +11.5 (+0.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DETROIT -4.5 (+0.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-DET OVER 235.5 (+3.2)
2. PHI-DAL OVER 230.5 (+2.5)
3. UTA-LAC OVER 232.5 (+2.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BOS-SAC UNDER 227.5 (-0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -11.5 (+2.6)
2. LA CLIPPERS -12.5 (+1.7)
3. DETROIT -4.5 (+1.0)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-LAC OVER 232.5 (+4.6)
2. MIA-DET OVER 235.5 (+3.5)
3. PHI-DAL OVER 230.5 (+1.8)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-BKN UNDER 218.5 (-2.2)
2. BOS-SAC UNDER 227.5 (-0.1)
