NFL Survivor
The anthology written about Survivor contests in the 2020s will lead with the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have wiped out large swathes of the field in recent seasons and nearly did it again this past week, outlasting the Titans 43-36 in overtime. Despite those transgressions, 53% of remaining Circa Survivor players rolled the dice with Joe Burrow & Co. and had years stripped from their lives.
There are only 610 entries left of the 25,017 that started. The Circa Grandissimo had 77 entries and is down to three. Nobody was eliminated last week, but all three had the Bengals, so it was a downright scary day. Our Circa Survivor dashboard has all kinds of awesome bells and whistles to help you keep an eye on who has who left and which entries appear to be in the best shape.
This week, we have an enormous road favorite on Thursday night that most of the field has already taken. There are some really tough decisions to make because the big favorites this week are mostly teams that have holiday considerations. If your Survivor rules don’t have that wrinkle, then you probably have a lot more options at your disposal than those who are playing with that rulebook.
The goal here will be to continue sharing information on the contest as a whole, but also to share my insights on the week at hand. Even though this article “entry” was knocked out a while ago, I am keeping in mind the likely availability that remains, so as to present relevant notes and nuggets.
Once again, we’ll be using the Survivor tools from PoolGenius to plot out a course for the season and evaluate the pool picks each week.
Week 9 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Jaguars (-10) over Ravens
Survivor contests are full of twists and turns. Will we get one here with Joe Fagnano as the starting QB for the Ravens on Thursday night? Lamar Jackson is out for the year, Tyler Huntley is also hurt. So, Fagnano, who shined at UConn and Maine, gets the nod for Baltimore. You can bet we’ll see a lot of Derrick Henry this week if he can handle the workload.
Jacksonville is in some pretty rare air here as a road favorite laying over a touchdown in this Thursday Night Football spot. In fact, this is the biggest road favorite with these circumstances since 2022. The Broncos were -13.5 against the Chiefs in Week 17 last season when Patrick Mahomes was out for the Christmas game. The Cowboys were -13.5 against the Titans in Week 17 of 2022. It should be noted that road favorites on Thursdays are 9-1 SU dating back to 2004. The lone upset? The Browns over the Steelers in 2009.
Like I said, most entrants have used the Jags already, with a 29.3% availability rate per our Circa Survivor dashboard. They have been a popular pick a few times, including Week 1 against the hapless Browns. Even with Jackson out, this isn’t the most optimal spot to take them per PoolGenius, which lists the Jags at 81%. They actually have a bigger favorite role on paper coming up against the Titans at home. Our numbers have a 77.3% win probability.
Chiefs (-9.5) over Jets
Here’s one of those holiday considerations. The Chiefs should win this week and look like a pretty safe pick for those who still have them. The catch is that KC plays at Buffalo on the Thanksgiving “week.” That said, it would be a really hard spot to take them. The only reasons you would hold the Chiefs back here is because you want as many holiday options as possible and the chance for injuries could turn them into a much more palatable pick. Hell, just look at the game above. Jacksonville would have never been an option on Thursday against Baltimore without a Lamar Jackson injury.
If something were to happen to Josh Allen or there were some cluster injuries at other positions, then I think you’d see more people willing to saddle up with KC. As of now, PoolGenius only has them with a 37% win probability in that game. The Chiefs do not play on Christmas.
If you choose not to use them here, they do host Arizona in a couple of weeks and also have a couple of high-percentage games left against AFC West opponents. Given some of the shockers that we’ve had this season, it has been hard to be too cute and try and plan for the future. There is only a future in this contest if you pick correctly in the present. That was the belief for many, as the Chiefs are only available to 19.8% of the field per our Circa Survivor dashboard.
Lions (-7) over Dolphins
A similar situation here. Detroit should go down to South Florida and win. We all know the reputation of Jared “Small Hands” Goff on the road, but this isn’t a December game at Lambeau or Soldier Field. This is Detroit taking on arguably the worst team in the NFL.
But, the Lions are a Thanksgiving team. They do not play on Christmas or Christmas Eve, so they aren’t a consideration there, but we know that they play every year on Turkey Day. The Week 14 home game against Tennessee is a better bet based on PoolGenius’ win expectancy, but Week 14 still feels pretty far away.
The question you have to ask yourself here is if it’s worth using the Lions when they’ll be in a coin flip situation as one of your Thanksgiving options. The Cowboys are easily the best option on paper right now with everything the Eagles are dealing with. The Rams are next, even though they have plenty of problems of their own. As of now, Detroit wouldn’t be the top choice, but, again, what if Chicago has a rash of injuries?
It’s something you have to plan for, given the limited number of teams that can be used in those holiday weeks. Of the remaining Survivors, 69.7% of them have the Lions. We have them 77.2% to win. PoolGenius says 74%.
49ers (-10) over Raiders
This one really, really intrigues me. The Raiders are a dangerous team. They’re good on offense and have some compelling pieces on defense. On the other hand, they started 3-0 and then lost four in a row before beating the hapless Jets last week. It’s another road game for the Silver & Black after going all the way out to the Meadowlands last week.
But, the 49ers may very well be the league’s best team and they’re one of this week’s biggest favorites. What I think is the most fascinating part here is that San Francisco is not a holiday team. Therefore, this is probably the optimal time to deploy them. On paper, they could be a bigger favorite against the Eagles later in the season, but who knows if Philly has righted the ship at all by then. Plus, the Niners are a team that annually gets swarmed by injury bugs and has to contend with the big, bad power substation. It could be really beneficial to use them when they’re relatively okay.
I don’t think the Raiders win here. They are the best of the big dogs this week, though, so I do think there will be a lot of hesitation in taking them. Many entries don’t have a choice, as only 10% of the Circa Survivor field has the Niners at their disposal. Our numbers have them at 81% to win. PoolGenius has 81% as well.
NFL Week 9 Survivor Pick
Seahawks (-8.5) over Cardinals
The biggest favorite of the week was Seattle before Sam Darnold’s injury announcement. The Seahawks are a Christmas team, but they host the Rams. Will LA have it all figured out by then? If so, that game might be pretty coin-flippy. This game is not coin-flippy at all. In fact, this is PoolGenius’ top pick by win expectancy this week by a pretty good margin. Their 86% is well ahead of the 49ers’ 81%.
Again, though, the art and science of this contest comes into play. Is that 5% worth burning a holiday team? The 49ers are the Ron Popeil Rotisserie Oven of the week – set it and forget it. Take your probable win, save the holiday teams, and move on with your day.
Like I said, I can envision a world in which the Raiders have a better chance to upset the 49ers than the Cardinals do with the Seahawks, even if Seattle has been a pretty disappointing team thus far. This is the only game above 75% for the Seahawks the rest of the way per PG. The 49ers have one more.
Based on the side-by-side comparison of these three teams, you can make a pretty strong case for the Chiefs. Kansas City at Buffalo is pretty low down the totem pole for the Thanksgiving holiday. The Niners could be saved for another week where they are a heavy favorite. The Seahawks could be saved for Christmas. I can’t really tell anybody what to do here. It’s a question of risk tolerance and also is pretty dependent on the size of your pool, how many are left, the teams left for the entries, and, most importantly, if the holidays matter at all.
Over 84% of the Circa Survivor field has Seattle, but their win probability has fallen to 78% at PoolGenius without Darnold. Regardless, I don’t think I’d save them for the Rams on Christmas. This is a team that won a Super Bowl and has a starting QB that has missed multiple games. How healthy are they seven weeks from now?
Pick: Seahawks
Teams Used: Jaguars, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Vikings, Bengals, 49ers, Texans, Bengals
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