The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, November 11, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

NBA Streak Betting System #6: Teams having lost four or more games in a row have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 44-13 SU and 39-16-2 ATS (70.9%) in their last 57 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 at UTA)

* Over the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the Warriors-Thunder series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-OKC (o/u at 228.5)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager in the past two and a half seasons, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-10.5 vs MEM)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* BROOKLYN is 12-2 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since February 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-BKN (o/u at 232.5)

* PHILADELPHIA is 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since November 2024
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs BOS)

* GOLDEN STATE is 119-89 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-OKC (o/u at 228.5)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-5 SU and 31-7-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs GSW)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario were 45-35 SU and 44-35 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 vs UTA)

* SACRAMENTO is 5-10 SU and 2-13 ATS playing in 3rd Straight Home games since November 2024
Trend Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+8.5 vs DEN)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(533) TORONTO (5-5) at (534) BROOKLYN (1-9)
* Road teams have covered five of the last six in the Raptors-Nets divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-9.5 at BKN)

(535) MEMPHIS (4-7) at (536) NEW YORK (6-3)
* Road teams are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of this non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+10.5 at NYK)

* Over the total has converted in six straight Grizzlies-Knicks meetings in New York
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-NYK (o/u at 231.5)

(537) BOSTON (5-6) at (538) PHILADELPHIA (6-4)
* Although 1-4 SU, home teams have covered four of the last five in the BOS-PHI divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs BOS)

(539) GOLDEN STATE (6-5) at (540) OKLAHOMA CITY (10-1)
* Over the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the Warriors-Thunder series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-OKC (o/u at 228.5)

(541) INDIANA (1-9) at (542) UTAH (3-7)
* Home teams are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven of this non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+2.5 vs IND)

(543) DENVER (7-2) at (544) SACRAMENTO (3-7)
* Over the total has converted in eight of the last 10 Nuggets-Kings games in Sacramento, including five straight since late-December 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-SAC (o/u at 242.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between teams with 40% or lower winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 119-81 SU and 121-76-3 ATS (61.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 at UTA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
Road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 85-33 SU and 72-45-1 ATS (61.5%).
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 at UTA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 35-121 SU and 63-88-5 ATS (41.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+9.5 vs TOR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 116-96 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 227-181 (55.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 303-230 (56.8%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-NYK (spread -10.5, total 231.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 86-31 SU and 72-52-3 ATS (58.1%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-9.5 at BKN), PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs BOS)

NBA Extreme Stats Next-Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 83-56 SU and 73-64-2 ATS (53.3%) in the follow-up game since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-10.5 vs MEM)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 155-56 SU and 125-84-2 ATS (59.8%) in their last 211 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 at UTA)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 307-238 SU but 243-287-15 ATS (45.8%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): NEW YORK (-10.5 vs MEM)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 340-292 (53.8%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-OKC (o/u at 228.5)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or lower field goal percentage in any given game have performed well the next game as well, going 164-108 SU and 156-109-7 ATS (58.9%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-8.5 at SAC), GOLDEN STATE (+7.5 at OKC)

High-TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 67-49 SU and 69-46-1 ATS (60%) in their last 116 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 at UTA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 133-24 SU but 69-85-3 ATS (44.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): NEW YORK (-10.5 vs MEM)

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 80-19 SU and 55-41-3 ATS (57.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-8.5 at SAC)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost four or more games in a row have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 44-13 SU and 39-16-2 ATS (70.9%) in their last 57 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 at UTA)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on the home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare games. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and a ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and a ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, PHILADELPHIA ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MEM-NYK, BOS-PHI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and a R.O.I. of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OVER – DEN-SAC

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH +2.5 (+4.7)
2. GOLDEN STATE +7.5 (+0.6)
3. BOSTON +1.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -10.5 (+1.7)
2. TORONTO -9.5 (+1.2)
3. DENVER -8.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH +2.5 (+5.1)
2. BROOKLYN +9.5 (+1.8)
3. MEMPHIS +10.5 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+3.1)
2. DENVER -8.5 (+2.9)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-BKN UNDER 233.5 (-2.5)
2. BOS-PHI UNDER 231.5 (-1.8)
3. GSW-OKC UNDER 228.5 (-1.6)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MEM-NYK OVER 231.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH +2.5 (+5.1)
2. SACRAMENTO +8.5 (+1.6)
3. BOSTON +1.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -10.5 (+1.7)
2. TORONTO -9.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-PHI OVER 231.5 (+1.1)
2. MEM-NYK OVER 231.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-UTA UNDER 232.5 (-3.9)
2. TOR-BKN UNDER 233.5 (-1.5)
3. DEN-SAC UNDER 242.5 (-1.1)

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