The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, November 4, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 50-60 SU and 40-68-2 ATS (37%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+4.5 at TOR)

* Philadelphia has won and covered in nine of its last 10 trips to Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 at CHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #2: Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 77-18 SU and 52-40-3 ATS (56.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 at LAC)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario were 74-47 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games last season
* ATLANTA is 119-87 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-ATL (o/u at 227.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 133-98 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-NOP (o/u at 236.5)

* PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-CHI (o/u at 240.5)

* TORONTO is 13-12 SU and 17-7 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since October 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-4.5 vs MIL)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario are 190-241 SU but 246-177-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+11.5 at GSW)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario were 43-34 SU and 43-33 ATS vs. teams in b2b games since the start of last season
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 64-13 SU and 49-25-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 24
System/Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 at LAC)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 115-93 (55.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 227-180 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 298-228 (56.7%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-GSW (spread at GSW -11.5, total at 233.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next-Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 257-138 SU but 184-203-8 ATS (47.5%) skid in the follow-up game when favored.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 at LAC)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 163-95 SU but 119-135-4 ATS (46.9%) in the follow-up game over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 97-119 ATS (44.9%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs CHA)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 335-286 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-ATL (o/u at 227.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3-point field goal attempts in a game have responded the next time out by going just 303-318 SU and 279-334-8 ATS (45.5%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+11.5 at GSW)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 171-188 SU and 160-189-10 ATS (45.8%) in that next game over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+4.5 at TOR), OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 at LAC)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 202-77 SU and 147-129-3 ATS (53.3%) over the last five seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs CHA), CHICAGO (-1.5 vs PHI)

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 65-48 SU and 67-45-1 ATS (59.8%) in their last 113 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+3.5 vs ORL)

Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 50-60 SU and 40-68-2 ATS (37%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+4.5 at TOR)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(501) MILWAUKEE (5-2) at (502) TORONTO (3-4)
* Over the total has converted in five straight meetings between Milwaukee and Toronto in Canada
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-TOR (o/u at 236.5)

(503) ORLANDO (3-4) at (504) ATLANTA (3-4)
* Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the Magic-Hawks divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-ATL (o/u at 227.5)

(505) CHARLOTTE (3-4) at (506) NEW ORLEANS (0-6)
* Home teams have covered all five meetings between non-conference foes Charlotte and New Orleans since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs CHA)

(507) PHILADELPHIA (5-1) at (508) CHICAGO (5-1)
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the PHI-CHI series, including four straight at Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-CHI (o/u at 240.5)

* PHILADELPHIA has won and covered in nine of its last 10 trips to Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 at CHI)

(509) PHOENIX (3-4) at (510) GOLDEN STATE (4-3)
* PHOENIX is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 of its divisional set with Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+11.5 at GSW)

(511) OKLAHOMA CITY (7-0) at (512) LA CLIPPERS (3-3)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 games versus LA Clippers
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 at LAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 77-18 SU and 52-40-3 ATS (56.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 at LAC)

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play-against teams in general, going 260-310-4 ATS (45.6%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 at LAC)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and a ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, PHILADELPHIA, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and a ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare games. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and a ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and a ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and a ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and a ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and a ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA ML, GOLDEN STATE ML, LA CLIPPERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and a ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY OVER): CHA-NOP

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA +3.5 (+1.8)
2. PHOENIX +11.5 (+0.8)
3. CHARLOTTE +2.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO -1.5 (+0.8)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+0.6)
3. TORONTO -4.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHONEIX +11.5 (+3.1)
2. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+1.8)
3. CHARLOTTE +2.5 (+1.20

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-LAC OVER 220.5 (+1.8)
2. PHI-CHI OVER 240.5 (+1.6)
3. ORL-ATL OVER 228.5 (+0.4)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-NOP UNDER 236.5 (-1.0)
2. PHX-GSW UNDER 233.5 (-0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHOENIX +11.5 (+0.9)
2. CHARLOTTE +2.5 (+0.7)
3. ATLANTA +3.5 (+0.5)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+0.9)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-GSW UNDER 233.5 (-1.6)
2. CHA-NOP UNDER 236.5 (-0.6)
3. MIL-TOR UNDER 235.5 (-0.3)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-CHI OVER 240.5 (+1.9)
2. ORL-ATL OVER 228.5 (+0.8)
3. OKC-LAC OVER 220.5 (+0.7)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR