The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, November 12, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

NBA Streak Betting System #5: Teams having won their last four games and playing on a back-to-back as favorites of 4 points or more versus below-.500 teams are 49-12 SU and 38-23 ATS (62.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs ORL) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1: In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 166-62 SU and 136-91-1 ATS (59.9%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-5.5 vs CLE), OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs LAL) 

* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the Grizzlies-Celtics series at TD Garden
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-BOS (o/u at 230.5)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenarios were 45-36 SU and 44-36 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+4.5 at NYK)

* ORLANDO is 104-73 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since Mar 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-NYK (o/u at 227.5)

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 191-243 SU but 247-179-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four Seasons
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+16.5 at HOU)

* NBA teams playing in away-to-home back-to-back scenarios are 26-31 SU and 21-36 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two Seasons
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-6.5 vs MEM) 

* NBA teams playing in away-to-home back-to-back scenarios are 20-7 Under the total vs. teams in A2A b2b games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-BOS (o/u at 230.5) 

* CHARLOTTE is 134-98 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CHA (o/u at 231.5)

* MIAMI is 19-7 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-MIA (o/u at 238.5) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 45-36 SU and 44-36 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+6.5 at OKC)

* DENVER is 77-51 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-LAC (o/u at 225.5) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 45-36 SU and 44-36 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season

* SACRAMENTO is 5-11 SU and 2-14 ATS playing in 3rd Straight Home games since Nov 2024
System/Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-3.5 at SAC) 

* ATLANTA is 120-88 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-SAC (o/u at 233.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(545) MILWAUKEE (7-4) at (546) CHARLOTTE (3-7)
* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the MIL-CHA series at Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CHA (o/u at 231.5) 

(547) CHICAGO (6-4) at (548) DETROIT (9-2)
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the CHI-DET divisional rivalry in the Motor City
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-DET (o/u at 235.5)

(549) ORLANDO (5-6) at (550) NEW YORK (7-3)
* Under the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the ORL-NYK Eastern Conference series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-NYK (o/u at 227.5) 

(551) CLEVELAND (7-4) at (552) MIAMI (7-4)
* Over the total is 8-1-1 in the CLE-MIA series since 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-MIA (o/u at 238.5) 

(553) MEMPHIS (4-8) at (554) BOSTON (5-7)
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the Grizzlies-Celtics series at TD Garden
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-BOS (o/u at 230.5) 

(555) WASHINGTON (1-10) at (556) HOUSTON (6-3)
* HOUSTON has covered seven of their last eight games with Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-16.5 vs WSH) 

(557) GOLDEN STATE (6-6) at (558) SAN ANTONIO (8-2)
* Underdogs are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 of the GSW-SAS series
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+4.5 at SAS) 

(559) PORTLAND (5-5) at (560) NEW ORLEANS (2-8)
* PORTLAND has covered all five meetings with New Orleans since April 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-8.5 at NOP) 

(561) PHOENIX (6-5) at (562) DALLAS (3-8)
* PHOENIX is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five trips to Dallas
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-1.5 at DAL) 

(563) LA LAKERS (8-3) at (564) OKLAHOMA CITY (11-1)
* Over the total is 8-2 in the LAL-OKC series at Oklahoma City since the start of the 2019 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-OKC (o/u at 230.5)

(565) ATLANTA (6-5) at (566) SACRAMENTO (3-8)
* Under the total is 9-1 in the ATL-SAC non-conference series since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-SAC (o/u at 233.5) 

(567) DENVER (8-2) at (568) LA CLIPPERS (3-7)
* DENVER is 4-0 ATS in the last four games with LA Clippers
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-2.5 at LAC) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 166-62 SU and 136-91-1 ATS (59.9%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-5.5 vs CLE), OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs LAL) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 117-96 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 227-181 (55.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 303-230 (56.8%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-HOU (spread -16.5, total 234.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 22-13 Over (62.9%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-DET (o/u at 235.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 88-55-1 (61.5%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-NYK (o/u at 227.5) 

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 84-56 SU and 74-64-2 ATS (53.6%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs ORL), MIAMI (-5.5 vs CLE) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 130-134 SU but 136-113-5 ATS (54.6%), including 94-62-1 ATS (60.3%) when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+2.5 at DET)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 282-149 SU but just 181-237-13 ATS (43.3%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-2.5 vs CHI), MILWAUKEE (-5.5 at CHA) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 340-293 (53.7%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-DET (o/u at 235.5), CLE-MIA (o/u at 238.5), PHX-DAL (o/u at 226.5) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 172-189 SU and 161-190-10 ATS (45.9%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+5.5 at MIA) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 204-78 SU and 148-131-3 ATS (53%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-5.5 vs CLE) 

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 21-72 SU and 40-53 ATS (43%) in their last 93 tries.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+16.5 at HOU) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 67-50 SU and 69-47-1 ATS (59.5%) in their last 117 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET, BUT WATCH FOR GOLDEN STATE at SAS (+4.5 spread currently) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
Teams having won their last four games and playing on a back-to-back as favorites of 4 points or more versus below-.500 teams are 49-12 SU and 38-23 ATS (62.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs ORL)

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 121-85-2 (58.7%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-HOU (o/u at 234.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least 4 games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 35-77 SU but 61-51 ATS (54.5%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+2.5 vs DEN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 262-312-4 ATS (45.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 32-137 SU and 73-90-6 ATS (44.8%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+16.5 at HOU)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PORTLAND, PHOENIX, ATLANTA, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON, HOUSTON, ATLANTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, NEW YORK, MIAMI, SAN ANTONIO, PORTLAND, PHOENIX, OKLAHOMA CITY, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-MIA, MEM-BOS, POR-NOP 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UNDER – POR-NOP

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +5.5 (+2.4)
2. SACRAMENTO +3.5 (+2.3)
3. NEW ORLEANS +8.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -16.5 (+4.4)
2. DENVER -3.5 (+3.2)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+2.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +5.5 (+2.2)
2. CHICAGO +2.5 (+1.9)
3. SACRAMENTO +3.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). PHOENIX -1.5 (+4.2)
MIAMI -5.5 (+4.2)
3. DENVER -3.5 (+4.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-NYK OVER 227.5 (+4.2)
2. ATL-SAC OVER 233.5 (+3.7)
3. CLE-MIA OVER 238.5 (+2.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-BOS UNDER 230.5 (-4.0)
2. CHI-DET UNDER 235.5 (-1.4)
3. GSW-SAS UNDER 231.5 (-1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +5.5 (+5.4)
2. SACRAMENTO +3.5 (+4.7)
3. NEW ORLEANS +8.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -16.5 (+3.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+2.2)
3. NEW YORK -4.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-SAC OVER 233.5 (+3.7)
2. POR-NOP OVER 229.5 (+3.6)
3. WSH-HOU OVER 234.5 (+3.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-CHA UNDER 231.5 (-2.4)
2(tie). MEM-BOS UNDER 230.5 (-2.1)
LAL-OKC UNDER 230.5 (-2.1)

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