The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, November 26, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 90-95 SU but 106-77-3 ATS (57.9%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+8.5 at MIA), CHARLOTTE (+6.5 vs NYK)

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 34-17 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DET-BOS (o/u at 231.5), NYK-CHA (o/u at 240.5), MIN-OKC (o/u at 227.5) 

* NBA CUP FAVORITES are on a 43-15 SU and 35-23 ATS (60.3%) run in their last 58 tries
Trend Matches: PLAY ALL FAVORITES TONIGHT

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* TORONTO is 17-12 SU and 19-9 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Oct 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-10.5 vs IND) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 195-248 SU but 250-185-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-2.5 at BOS), MINNESOTA (+8.5 at OKC) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 34-17 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DET-BOS (o/u at 231.5), NYK-CHA (o/u at 240.5), MIN-OKC (o/u at 227.5) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 195-248 SU but 250-185-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
* CHARLOTTE is 8-34 SU and 13-28-1 ATS playing in 2 Days Rest scenario since Mar 2022
System/Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-6.5 at CHA)

* GOLDEN STATE is 27-29 SU and 18-35 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2023
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 vs HOU)

* GOLDEN STATE is 123-90 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
* HOUSTON is 117-84 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-GSW (o/u at 223.5) 

* MIAMI is 20-8 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-MIA (o/u at 237.5) 

* PORTLAND is 25-26 SU but 35-14 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Oct 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-1.5 vs SAS) 

* PORTLAND is 65-37 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Apr 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-POR (o/u at 239.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(527) DETROIT at (528) BOSTON
* Home teams are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five of the DET-BOS series
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+2.5 vs DET) 

(529) NEW YORK at (530) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the Knicks-Hornets series at Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-CHA (o/u at 240.5) 

(531) INDIANA at (532) TORONTO
* TORONTO is 6-2 ATS in the last eight games with Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-10.5 vs IND) 

(533) MINNESOTA at (534) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Home teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the MIN-OKC divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs MIN) 

(535) MILWAUKEE at (536) MIAMI
* MILWAUKEE is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven games with Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+8.5 at MIA) 

(537) MEMPHIS at (538) NEW ORLEANS
* Home teams have covered in all three MEM-NOP meetings in 2025
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs MEM) 

(539) HOUSTON at (540) GOLDEN STATE
* Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the Rockets-Warriors series at Chase Center
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+2.5 at GSW) 

(541) SAN ANTONIO at (542) PORTLAND
* Home teams are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between SAS and POR
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-1.5 vs SAS) 

(543) PHOENIX at (544) SACRAMENTO
* Favorites are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 of the PHX-SAC Pacific Division rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-4.5 at SAC)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 123-85 SU and 126-79-3 ATS (61.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-3.5 at NOP)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 87-35 SU and 74-47-1 ATS (61.2%).
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-3.5 at NOP) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 35-123 SU and 64-89-5 ATS (41.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs MEM), SACRAMENTO (+4.5 vs PHX) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 123-98 (55.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 229-185 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 311-236 (56.9%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – IND-TOR (spread -10.5, total 234.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Western Northwest Division Betting System #3:
In Western Northwest divisional games, favorites on two days rest or more are 7-9 SU and 3-13 ATS (18.8%) since the start of the 2024 playoffs.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs MIN) 

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 40-8 SU and 32-16 ATS (66.7%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-3.5 at NOP)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 349-304 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-BOS (o/u at 231.5), MEM-NOP (o/u at 235.5) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 75-55 SU and 77-52-1 ATS (59.7%) in their last 130 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR PHOENIX at SAC, -4.5 CURRENTLY 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 137-25 SU but 71-88-3 ATS (44.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): TORONTO (-10.5 vs IND) 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 26-9 SU but 12-23 ATS (34.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 24-11 (68.6%) in these games.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR OKLAHOMA CITY vs MIN, -8.5 CURRENTLY 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 90-95 SU but 106-77-3 ATS (57.9%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+8.5 at MIA), CHARLOTTE (+6.5 vs NYK) 

NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 36-83 SU but 64-55 ATS (53.8%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+8.5 at MIA)

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 67-89-1 ATS (42.9%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs MIN), TORONTO (-10.5 vs IND) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, NEW YORK, SAN ANTONIO, PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%).  This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, NEW YORK, TORONTO, MIAMI, GOLDEN STATE, SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in a NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-SAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – NYK-CHA, MEM-NOP, SAS-POR

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (+3.1)
2. HOUSTON +2.5 (+1.5)
3. SACRAMENTO +4.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK -6.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +10.5 (+3.2)
2. SACRAMENTO +4.5 (+2.3)
3. NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (+1.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -8.5 (+2.0)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -10.5 (+1.1)
3. PORTLAND -1.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-CHA OVER 240.5 (+1.5)
2. IND-TOR OVER 234.5 (+0.3)
3. MIL-MIA OVER 237.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-POR UNDER 239.5 (-5.6)
2. DET-BOS UNDER 231.5 (-2.6)
3. MEM-NOP UNDER 235.5 (-2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +1.5 (+2.6)
2. MINNESOTA +10.5 (+1.8)
3. MILWAUKEE +8.5 (+1.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -2.5 (+0.3)
2. NEW YORK -6.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-TOR OVER 234.5 (+1.1)
2. PHX-SAC OVER 233.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-OKC UNDER 228.5 (-4.9)
2. SAS-POR UNDER 239.5 (-4.3)
3. NYK-CHA UNDER 240.5 (-4.1)

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