On Thursday, June 19th, the Indiana Pacers host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. The Thunder currently have a 3-2 series lead, so Oklahoma City can close this out with a win at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Keep reading for odds, predictions and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Finals Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Thunder vs. Pacers – Game 6
Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
When: 8:30 pm ET on Thursday, June 19th
Channel: ABC
Thunder vs. Pacers Odds – Game 6
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Tuesday, June 17th at 4:30 pm ET)
Moneyline: Thunder -258, Pacers +210
Spread: Thunder -6.5 (-112), Pacers +6.5 (-108)
Total: Over 222.5 (-110), Under 222.5 (-110)
Thunder vs. Pacers Prediction – Game 6
The Thunder dominated the Pacers in Game 5. I know Indiana made a push in the third quarter, and it was a two-point game with a little over eight minutes remaining in the fourth. But Oklahoma City ended up earning an 11-point win, and the team won by 13.5 when looking at NBA Game Report‘s expected points. Shot Quality told a similar story, with the team winning by 11.6 in Shot Quality Score. Really, for the first time all series, the Thunder looked connected offensively. They scored 121.4 points per 100 possessions, knocked down 14 of their 32 triples and didn’t rely strictly on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as an isolation scorer. In fact, Jalen Williams was the hero in Game 5, scoring 40 points on 14 for 25 shooting from the floor.
Heading into Game 6, it feels like Oklahoma City has all the momentum in the world. Indiana let Game 4 slip away, didn’t look great in Game 5 and now has to deal with Tyrese Haliburton being banged up. With that in mind, it’s hard to fault anybody for backing the Thunder. But that’s not where I’m going with this one. I’m taking 7.5 points with the Pacers, and I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. “Last game of the year, Brent. Can’t hold anything back now.”
The Haliburton injury news is concerning. He’s getting an MRI on his calf, leaving his status for this one in doubt. However, look at how T.J. McConnell has played in this series. He’s averaging 11.2 points, 4.2 assists and 2.0 steals per game in 18.0 minutes per game. He also had 18 points, four dimes, four boards and two steals in 22 minutes in Game 5. McConnell has been so good that Rick Carlisle has been getting heat for not playing him over Haliburton or Andrew Nembhard late in games. Well, if Haliburton is out, that problem is solved. They’ll just run with McConnell and Nembhard.
I just continue to believe that the Thunder can’t be trusted offensively, and that’s especially true on the road. Heading into Game 4, Oklahoma City was 0-8 against the spread when playing away from home in these playoffs, and it took one of the worst individual 45-second spurts in NBA Finals history from Bennedict Mathurin for the Thunder to cover in that one.
All throughout the postseason, we have seen guys like Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins knocking down shots at the Paycom Center, but they then go on the road and disappear. Well, why should we expect that to change now? There’s just going to be a lot riding on the shoulders of Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams in this game. And while they can easily rise to the occasion and deliver a win, I’m not sure Oklahoma City should be expected to roll Indiana — with or without Haliburton.
Let’s not forget that the Thunder went 3 for 16 from 3 in Game 4. They had guys turning down decent looks. Going 14 for 32 in a home game doesn’t just undo that. Oklahoma City has to prove that it can take — and make — a good amount of triples in Indianapolis. If that doesn’t happen, Indiana has more than enough firepower — even without Haliburton — to keep this game close.
In addition to McConnell and Nembhard being capable of stepping up, pulling the Mathurin lever has worked for Carlisle throughout the playoffs. He has had his fair share of blunders in this series, but he is also a fearless shot maker that should be excited about the possibility of getting more touches in a do-or-die home game.
For what it’s worth, the Pacers are also 2-1 straight-up and 3-0 ATS when facing elimination under Carlisle. They’re also 3-0 both SU and ATS in Game 6s under the legendary coach. And this is another game in which the teams will be playing on two full days of rest. That’s always a situation in which Carlisle will have an edge over the opposing coach.
Bet: Pacers +7.5 (-125 – 1.5 units) & Pacers ML (+217 – 0.5 units)
QUICK NOTE: I’m also playing Obi Toppin Over 10.5 Points (+100). It might hurt Toppin if Haliburton isn’t out there to spoon-feed him buckets, but Toppin is averaging 14.5 points per game over the last two contests. He’s also up at 11.4 points per game in this series. Toppin has looked like Indiana’s best big man, and I don’t think Carlisle will hesitate to go to him at the five if Myles Turner is struggling again. Toppin just brings a lot with his ability to knock down 3s, finish at the rim and provide a little juice in transition. The Pacers will need him here, and the backup guards are capable of finding him if Haliburton can’t go.
