On Monday, May 26th, the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Oklahoma City Thunder from the Target Center in a big Western Conference Finals Game 4. Keep reading for odds, predictions, player props and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action this postseason. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Thunder vs. Timberwolves – Game 4
Where: Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota
When: 8:30 pm ET on Monday, May 26th
Channel: ESPN
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Odds – Game 4
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Sunday, May 25th at 6:30 pm ET)
Moneyline: Thunder -155, Timberwolves +130
Spread: Thunder -3.5 (-108), Timberwolves +3.5 (-112)
Total: Over 218.5 (-110), Under 218.5 (-110)
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Prediction – Game 4
The Timberwolves were due for an offensive explosion, and that’s exactly what we saw in Game 3. Minnesota posted an offensive rating of 141.6, according to Cleaning The Glass. The Timberwolves finally shot the 3-ball well, going 20-40 from deep. They also went 35 for 56 on 2s, and that was a huge improvement from what we saw in Games 1 and 2. However, the most important thing for Minnesota might have been turning the ball over only 10 times. Oklahoma City is the best team in basketball when it comes to forcing turnovers, and the Thunder capitalize on those mistakes by quickly turning them into points. So, it was big that the Wolves didn’t beat themselves in Game 3, and I’m expecting another focused effort like that in Game 4.
I don’t think we’ll see another beatdown from Minnesota in this one, as the desperation of avoiding a 3-0 deficit is gone. Oklahoma City will also be extremely hungry after having been embarrassed in that game. But I do think there’s a good chance the Wolves win a close one. However, with 3.5-point spreads out there, I’d take the points instead of settling for a bad moneyline price.
The reality is that the Thunder have now proven that they can’t be trusted in road games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is always going to be a huge scoring threat, and he might go for 30 or more in this one. But Oklahoma City’s role players haven’t shown up on the road throughout these playoffs. That’s the reason the Thunder have a net rating of +24.2 in eight postseason home games, but they’re down at -7.5 in six road games. Of course, blowouts both ways have skewed the numbers entirely. But the struggles on the road can be acknowledged without using advanced stats. Oklahoma City was on pace to lose by 20 or more in Game 3 of the Memphis series, but Ja Morant got injured and the Thunder came back. Then, they barely beat a Grizzlies team that was playing without the highly talented guard in Game 4. Oklahoma City also went 1-2 in the three games it played in Denver last series.
The matchup between Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards definitely feels important in this one. That might not seem like a groundbreaking thought, but Edwards played like a star in Game 3 and Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t. Edwards had 30 points on 12 for 17 shooting from the floor and 5 for 8 shooting from 3, and he only played 30 minutes. Meanwhile, Gilgeous-Alexander had 14 points on 4 for 13 shooting from the field. He also shot only four free throws in Game 3.
The free throw shooting for Gilgeous-Alexander will be another intriguing thing to watch. Minnesota was physical with the MVP right from the opening tip, and the team is going to look to do it again in Game 4. Will the officials let the Wolves get away with it? They were quick to send Gilgeous-Alexander to the charity stripe in Games 1 and 2, and I expected a bit of a correction in Game 3. How the game is officiated will have a big impact on Game 4.
Ultimately, I’m buying a little of what we saw from Minnesota in Game 3, as I expected that Timberwolves team to show up to start the series. However, I’m going much smaller on this play than I did in that one. Though I do like that Minnesota is 6-1 both straight-up and against the spread in Game 4s under Chris Finch. The team is also 28-24 SU and 32-20 ATS as a home underdog of 6 or less under Finch.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +3.5 (-107)
