On Christmas Day, the Dallas Mavericks host the Minnesota Timberwolves at the American Airlines Center. This should be an exciting part of the NBA’s five-game slate. Keep reading for odds, picks and player props for this game, and make sure you also check out our live VSiN programming for more analysis. Our talented hosts and analysts will surely spend some time talking about these games.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Timberwolves vs. Mavericks
When: Wednesday, December 25th at 2:30 pm ET
Where: American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
Channel: ABC / ESPN / ESPN+
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. They can change. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Mavericks -218, Timberwolves +180
Spread: Mavericks -5.5 (-108), Timberwolves +5.5 (-112)
Total: Over 221.5 (-110), Under 221.5 (-110)
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Analysis
When this game first became available, the Mavericks were 3-point favorites. The spread is now up to 5.5 in most places. Realistically, it’s pretty easy to see why. The Mavericks have been a top-five team in basketball this season. They’re up to fourth in adjusted net rating (+5.3), and it’s the offense that has been impossible to keep down. But Dallas has also been rock-solid defensively this season, and we know this team is capable of locking in on that end of the floor. We saw it when the Mavericks beat this Timberwolves team in five games in last year’s Western Conference Finals. Meanwhile, Minnesota comes into this game on a three-game losing streak, and we have seen a Jekyll and Hyde act from this team all year. Before this recent three-game stretch, the team had won six of its previous seven games and looked to be figuring things out. With that in mind, which Timberwolves team will show up?
I happen to think there’s a chance the Finch is going to steal Christmas. Under Chris Finch, the Timberwolves are 24-6 against the spread when playing away from home after having lost three of their previous four games. Minnesota has also won those games by an average of 2.9 points per game. Finch is just a very good strategist and I like him to patch things up a little after the loss to Atlanta on Monday. For as bad as things have looked for the Timberwolves this year, this is still a team that is fourth in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (+108.3). And Dunks & Threes’ predictive EPM has Minnesota third. This is still an elite defensive team, even if the group does have some lackluster stretches. And while Minnesota is just 21st in adjusted offensive rating (110.5), a lot of that is self inflicted.
Anthony Edwards is just 20 for 56 from the floor and 8 for 25 from 3 over the last three games, and it’s tough to win games when your best player is shooting like that. But Edwards has been getting a ton of quality looks, so it’s only a matter of time before he comes bursting out of this slump. And I don’t think you can rule out the possibility of him doing it on the national Christmas Day stage.
I have also shared these thoughts on Minnesota throughout the year, but part of the reason the team brought in Julius Randle is because of the way Dallas defended in last year’s playoffs. The Mavericks were sending extra help at Edwards, blitzing him as often as humanly possible. Minnesota didn’t have any players that could create enough offense to make Dallas pay for that. Well, Randle can do that. While everybody on the planet seems to have some negative thoughts about the big, powerful southpaw, this is a player that is averaging 20.0 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game. He’s a very, very good offensive player, and he’s going to enjoy playing this game his hometown of Dallas.
If Edwards does get his shooting back on track, and Randle continues to be a dangerous second option, Minnesota will just need some role players to hit 3s in order to make this a game. That has been another problem for the Timberwolves. Guys just aren’t making shots they usually hit. However, players tend to get up for games like these, and Minnesota will be hoping to get back on track in a meeting with an elite Western Conference team. So, I’m expecting a very good defensive effort, and I think the execution on offense will be a little sharper.
Of course, Luka Doncic has been on a tear for the Mavericks lately, and a team with him and Kyrie Irving can always pull away. So, this is hardly a safe bet, especially with Dallas having the option of hunting Randle as often as possible. But the Timberwolves do have some good options to throw on both players. Edwards and Jaden McDaniels will both compete when guarding Doncic, and Minnesota will probably find some more minutes for Nickeil Alexander-Walker. He’s the team’s best option for Irving. The Timberwolves just have to hope that guys like Klay Thompson and P.J. Washington don’t get hot from 3. If they do, it’ll be hard for Minnesota to stick around.
By the way, it should be noted that the Mavericks are just 44-52-2 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Jason Kidd. This is a lot of points to have to cover, and they’re going to be attempting to do it against a hungry and talented team.
I also don’t hate the Under in this game, as these teams both defend at a high level. Minnesota also plays at a slow pace, and the team will definitely try to slow Dallas down here. These teams also scored fewer than 222 points in three of the five games in last year’s playoff series, as well as three of their four regular-season matchups last year.
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Player Props
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 1.5 Made 3s (+100)
The Wolves are going to find minutes for Alexander-Walker. He’s the team’s best guard defender, and he’s also a 43.0% 3-point shooter. Back when these teams met on October 29th, Alexander-Walker played 24 minutes and went 3 for 5 from deep. Well, I can see him playing a little closer to 28 minutes here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a few triples. The Mavericks didn’t have to respect him in last year’s playoff series, as he went just 3 for 16 from deep in the five games. But Alexander-Walker is better than that showing, and he’s going to be counted on to make some shots here.
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Pick
I might be ignoring some bad vibes with Minnesota, but the numbers tell you that this team is still defending at an elite level. The Timberwolves are also due for some serious positive regression on offense, as multiple players are shooting below their career 3-point percentages. Once they start to knock down some shots, they should look like a team that can compete with the Mavericks. And why can’t that happen on Christmas Day? Minnesota has lost three in a row and will be the more desperate team in this game. That counts for something.
Perhaps the Mavericks will pull out a close one here. After all, they have the best late-game offensive options, and they are playing as more of a cohesive unit than the Timberwolves are. But Minnesota is fully capable of at least getting this thing to a crunch-time situation, so I’m taking the points. I’m also taking the Alexander-Walker prop.
Bet: Timberwolves +5.5 (-108 – 1.5 units) & Alexander-Walker Over 1.5 Made 3s (+100)
