On Wednesday, May 28th, the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Minnesota Timberwolves for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals from the Paycom Center. Keep reading for odds, predictions and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action this postseason. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Timberwolves vs. Thunder – Game 5
Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
When: 8:30 pm ET on Wednesday, May 28th
Channel: ESPN
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Odds – Game 5
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Tuesday, May 27th at 6:30 pm ET)
Moneyline: Thunder -340, Timberwolves +270
Spread: Thunder -8.5 (-108), Timberwolves +8.5 (-112)
Total: Over 220.5 (-112), Under 220.5 (-108)
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction – Game 5
Are the Timberwolves going to roll over in Oklahoma City? Losing a home Game 4 and missing an opportunity to even up a series can kill a mentally fragile team. Well, if Minnesota isn’t ready to fight for its season, Oklahoma City might win this game by 30 or more. That’s how good and relentless this Thunder team can be. They’re quick to the ball defensively, they’re physical and they’re absolutely capable of smelling blood in the water. That said, it’s going to take the full focus of the Timberwolves in order to make this a game, and they’re going to need to play with the belief that they can win three in a row. I’m not sure that doing so against this Oklahoma City team is possible. But I do think Minnesota is plenty capable of winning a road game in this series, and there are a lot of numbers that back that up. That’s why I’m playing the Timberwolves to cover a 9-point spread, but I’m not getting carried away with the size of the play.
If we’re getting a fully-engaged Timberwolves, there’s a real shot this is a competitive game. While we have seen some blowouts in this series, expected points per shot has shown that Minnesota has been right there with Oklahoma City. In Game 1, the Thunder had 5.0 more expected points than the Wolves. In Game 2, the Wolves had 2.4 more expected points than the Thunder. In Game 3, the Wolves had 8.1 more expected points than the Thunder. And in Game 4, the Thunder had 6.8 more expected points than the Wolves. That’s two games apiece when looking at something that does a good job of illustrating the types of looks the teams are generating — and how often the teams should be making those shots, based on a season of data.
The Timberwolves just need to value the basketball. Minnesota is facing the best team in the league when it comes to creating turnovers, and the Timberwolves did an awesome job of protecting the rock in Game 3. But they had 23 total turnovers in Game 4, and the Thunder scored 22 points off those turnovers. That shouldn’t happen in a home game, and it shouldn’t happen when you know the other team is hunting opportunities to take the ball away.
Making good decisions with the basketball will undoubtedly be harder at the Paycom Center, as Oklahoma City has one of the strongest fanbases in basketball. But Chris Finch is a good coach. He’ll do his part to get his team prepared for the chaos. It’ll just be up to his guys to execute. With the season on the line, perhaps we’ll see less carelessness.
The fight-or-flight response should at least help on the glass. Obviously, playing at home will give the Thunder players some adrenaline to attack the boards, and it’s not even clear if they need it. They seemingly got big offensive rebounds whenever they needed them in Game 4. But Minnesota should do a better job of accounting for bodies with the season being one game away from ending. It’s not like the Wolves don’t have the size.
You’d also have to think that an offensive eruption is coming for Anthony Edwards. The Timberwolves superstar was just 5 for 13 from the floor and 1 for 7 from 3 in an unacceptable Game 4 performance. And while he said after the game that he didn’t feel like he played poorly, nobody is buying any of that noise. Minnesota needs him to be more aggressive as a scorer, and he needs to hold his own in a matchup with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And even if he can’t actually win that matchup in Game 5, Edwards is likely going to come out firing. That should set the tone early on.
As somebody that had Minnesota in Games 1 and 2 and didn’t regret it, it’s just hard not to like the idea of taking 9. There’s not as much between these teams as people think. If the Timberwolves play a clean game, they can cover this number and give themselves a shot at heading back to the Target Center. I’m willing to take a shot on that. After all, Minnesota has covered in two in a row. The Wolves are also 4-3 straight-up and 5-2 against the spread when facing elimination under Finch.
Bet: Timberwolves +9 (-113)
