NBA favorites bounced back for the public on Monday, going 4-2 ATS. The Raptors (-2.5, beat Heat 107-103), Pacers (-8.5, beat Wizards 111-100), Pelicans (-4.5, beat Grizzlies 109-99) and Lakers (-6, beat Jazz 116-108) all covered. The dog covers came from the Nuggets (%plussign% 5.5, upset Thunder 121-113) and Spurs (%plussign% 7.5, lost to the 76ers 132-130).
With 25 bubble games now in the books, we're starting to build up enough of a sample size to notice some trends. So far, favorites have gone 14-10-1 ATS (58.3%). Overs have gone 13-12 (52%).
Today, we have another packed slate with 6 NBA games, 6 NHL games and 12 MLB games. Let's discuss four matchups receiving notable sharp action.
For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at Noon ET.
6:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics (44-22) vs Miami Heat (42-25)
Two of the Eastern Conference elites face off with the 3-seed Celtics facing the 4-seed Heat. Both teams are 1-1 in the bubble so far. Boston is coming off a 128-124 win over Portland while the Heat just lost to the Raptors 107-103. This line opened with the Celtics listed as 3-point favorites. Sharps immediately hit Boston, which has since pushed the line up to -3.5. One big advantage for the Celtics is the fact that the Heat are on the second night of a back-to-back while Boston enjoys a day of rest. The Celtics went 2-0 against the Heat during the regular season, winning 112-93 and 109-101. The total is 223.5. The Celtics have gone over in both of their bubble games while the Heat are 1-1 to the over.
8:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (6-4) vs Milwaukee Brewers (3-4)
The White Sox are one of the hottest teams in baseball. Chicago has won five straight games. Last night, the Sox took down the Brewers 6-4 in the series opener as a %plussign% 106 dog. Tonight Chicago sends ace Lucas Giolito (0-1, 6.52 ERA) to the mound against Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff (1-1, 1.59 ERA). This is a tough one for the public. They want to keep betting the streaking Sox. But they also see a big advantage for Milwaukee in terms of starting pitcher stats.
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -110 home favorite and Chicago a %plussign% 100 dog. Despite an even ticket count, the line has jumped to Brewers -120. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the bets are even. So we know this adjustment to Milwaukee is a result of smart money buying low on the Beer Makers after a loss. We're also seeing sharp action lean toward the under as well. It opened at 8.5 with even -110 juice on both sides and now it's 8.5 under -115.
9 p.m. ET: Houston Rockets (42-24) vs Portland Trail Blazers (30-38)
The Rockets are riding high. They just upset the Bucks 120-116 on Sunday night as 5-point dogs, cashing the biggest contrarian play of the Bubble thus far. Meanwhile, the Blazers are coming off a 128-124 loss to the Celtics, pushing as %plussign% 4 dogs. This game means much more to Portland than it does for Houston. The Rockets are the 4-seed in the West while the Blazers 2-games back of the 8th and final playoff spot.
This line opened with Houston listed as a 5-point favorite. The public remembers the Rockets beating the mighty Bucks and is riding the Rocketship here, no questions asked. However, we've actually seen this line fall to Houston -4.5. Some books are even down to -4. This signals wiseguys grabbing the Blazers at %plussign% 5, triggering marketwide movement in their favor.
9:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (7-4) vs San Diego Padres (7-4)
The Padres came up huge for sharps and contrarians last night, upsetting the Dodgers 5-4 in the series opener. San Diego only received a third of bets but saw sharp reverse line movement %plussign% 125 to %plussign% 120. Tonight, Los Angeles starts rookie phenom Dustin May (0-0, 2.35 ERA) against San Diego's number two starter Dinelson Lamet (1-0, 1.80 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a short -135 road favorite and San Diego a %plussign% 125 dog. The public says the Dodgers are a powerhouse and much better team so they "must" bounce back and win tonight. However, pros know the importance of not falling into the Gambler's Fallacy trap. Despite two-thirds of tickets taking the Dodgers, we've seen Los Angeles fall to -125. This signals another sharp reverse line move on the Padres (%plussign% 125 to %plussign% 115). San Diego is also a divisional dog with a high total (8.5), a profitable sport historically. Dodgers star Mookie Betts missed last night's game with a finger injury and is questionable for tonight.
Remember, the sports betting market is fluid and constantly changing due to action coming in. Stay up to date with the latest odds by visiting our free VSiN NBA Live Odds Page for Vegas sportsbooks and for other legalized states.
