Friday Best Bets
Welcome to our “Tuley’s Takes” Best Bets column for Friday.
In case you missed it last week, we’ve started splitting our daily column into two separate pieces: there’s a FREE article where I recap the betting action from the night before and update league-wide ATS stats in the various sports, and then this one where I look for the best betting opportunities on today’s wagering menu.
Links to both articles should be found on the VSiN.com home page, though I advise my regular readers to also bookmark my dedicated page at https://vsin.com/news/dave-tuley-columns/.
Thursday Best Bet Results
Thursday was a pretty surreal day as the NFL Draft dominated most of the sports betting conversation here at VSiN and everywhere, even overshadowing actual NBA and NHL playoff games.
You can find more on that in my ATS Report.
As for my own bets here in these Best Bet columns, my only official play on Thursday was on Royals First 5 Innings +0.5 +100 at Twins and it lost as the Twins led 7-1 after 5 innings. I was actually relieved as the only other plays I considered on the White Sox and Rangers also lost to the Rays and Yankees, plus I’m glad I passed on the Hawks vs. the Celtics as they failed to cover as 7-point home underdogs despite covering nearly the entire game (that would’ve been a tough pill to swallow, so we’re glad the “dog-or-pass” worked for us there).
We actually did have an unofficial play win as the first leg of our proposed Lightning-Maple Leafs First-Period Over 1.5 parlay on Thursday to the Avalanche-Kraken First-Period Over 1.5 came in after we were finally able to get down our bet on Thursday afternoon. We’ll see if that comes in again for us at +199 (we’re 4-1 for a net profit of 7.24 units on these so far in the playoffs), though we’re assuming we’re going to face the same issue trying to get down on tonight’s game to Saturday’s Maple Leafs-Lightning 1P Over 1.5.
Let’s get to our plays for Friday.
NBA Friday Best Bet
Kings +7.5 at Warriors: The Kings are back in the “zig-zag role” after failing in it in Game 5. The home teams won the first four games of this evenly matched series before GSW finally became Road Warriors in Sacramento, so the Kings have a great chance to return the favor to send this back home for a decisive Game 7 or at least keep it close like they did in Game 4’s 126-125 loss in San Francisco on Sunday. If you’re with us, be sure to shop around for the best number as we have +7.5 overnight at the Westgate SuperBook here in Las Vegas as well as at DraftKings in the states where they’re legal, but +7 at most other books
MLB Friday Best Bet
Marlins First 5 Innings -110 vs. Cubs: The Marlins are a “mini-swagger play” as they rallied in the top of the 9th to beat the Braves 5-4 in Atlanta on Thursday and now make the quick trip home to Miami to try and carry that momentum into their weekend series opener vs. the Cubs. We’re taking Jesus Luzardo (2-1, 3.62 ERA) vs. Marcus Stroman (2-2, 2.17 ERA) as he’s been lit up in two of his last three starts. Like yesterday, we’re passing on the Mets/David Peterson as we’re tempted by F5 +120 but we don’t feel confident enough to fade the Braves/Max Fried.
XFL playoffs Best Bet
Seattle Sea Dragons +5 at DC Defenders: We gave this out Sunday night on “The Greg Peterson Experience” when Circa Sports was one of the rare books with early lines on the XFL playoff games this upcoming weekend. We don’t like the Arlington Renegades vs. the Houston Roughnecks in Saturday’s XFL semifinal game, but took Seattle in this matchup on Sunday. DC (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) was the top team during the regular season, but Seattle lost its first 2 games of the season, including 22-18 at DC, and then went 6-1 the rest of the way with the only other loss to DC, though that was another close game at 34-33. I have this at pick’em, even with DC at home as XFL hosts are just 19-19-2 ATS overall, so home-field advantage is negligible (even though DC was 4-1 ATS at home, though failed in most recent home game as 10-point chalk in 28-26 win vs. Arlington in Week 9). I believed this line opened too high and wrote in Monday’s version of this column, “we have to take the Sea Dragons at anything more than a field goal.” It was still mostly +3.5 as of Tuesday but has since dropped to 3, so keep shopping around if you’re with us.
