Tuley: Tuesday Best Bets in NBA, MLB, NHL (plus early XFL picks): Monday recaps




Tuesday Best Bets, Monday Recaps

Monday was another roller-coaster day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we juggled family obligations (picking up son after school, making a mean pork tenderloin dinner with au gratin potatoes) with our sports bets.
The day started early as I was up at 8 a.m. PT for the Red Sox’s annual Patriots’ Day game, only to have to wait out a rain delay before losing my First 5 play on Boston as the Angels jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first inning on the way to leading 5-1 after 5 innings.
At least I split my MLB F5 plays as the Giants cashed at +110 for us as they led the Marlins 3-1 after 5 innings. And we felt validated for playing the F5 as they ended up losing 5-4 for the full game.
Unfortunately, we still ended up losing on the day as we lost our Best Bet on the Nets +10 at the 76ers in a bit of a bad beat as they were covering most of the game before losing 96-84. Fortunately, we did bet a little on the Nets +5.5 in the first half as they not only covered that but actually led by 5 points, 49-44, at intermission.
They should have been up by more and I was concerned that the 76ers could wake up in the second half and blow them out, so I took the 76ers -8.5 in the second half (adjusted line of -3.5 for the game) as a hedge/shot at a middle. I was feeling really good about myself as the middle was looking very possible in the fourth quarter, but then I had the sinking feeling that I was going to lose my biggest wager on the Nets +10.

Top NBA Resources:

As the cover slipped away, I started to really think that I need to start shortening the game with my NBA dogs (the same thing happened to me with the Warriors on Saturday and a couple of times during the regular season, too, when I had live dogs that got run over late) just like I do with MLB First-5 Inning plays and NHL First-Period Overs.
So, that’s what I’m going to do with my Best Bet for Tuesday.
But first let’s do our daily recaps of Monday’s betting action in the major team sports and then give our plays for Tuesday, which will also include MLB F5 and NHL 1P plays (as well as updating our XFL Week 10 plays for the weekend).

Monday Recaps

NBA: Kings beat Warriors 114-106 late Monday to take 2-0 lead in their first-round series. The ViewFromVegas is the Kings closed as 2-point home underdogs (stayed Under the betting total of Under 238.5). Earlier, 76ers rallied to beat Nets 96-84 and ended up covering as 10-point home favorites (stayed Under 211.5).

More NBA: Faves/dogs split 1-1 SU and ATS Monday, so they still stand at .500 at 5-5 SU & ATS in the first round. Home teams went 2-0 SU and ATS (since Kings were home dogs), so home teams lead 6-4 SU and ATS. Unders went 2-0 on the night and took a 6-4 lead (10-6 if including play-in tournament). The “zig-zag theory” (aka “loser of the last”) started this year’s playoffs by going 0-2 ATS with the Nets and Warriors both failing to cover in Games 2s after losing Game 1s.

MLB: Faves went 6-5 with upsets by the Reds (+135 vs. Rays), Diamondbacks (+129 at Cardinals), Mets (+126 at Dodgers), Pirates (+125 at Rockies) and Astros (+103 vs. Blue Jays). Road teams went 8-3. Overs led 7-4. On the season, faves lead 151-93 with 3 games closing pick-’em. Home teams’ lead drops to just 124-123. Overs lead 132-104-11 (55.9%).

NHL: Late Monday, the Kings (+185) upset Oilers 4-3 in OT and the Wild (+135) upset Stars 3-2 in OT as faves/dogs & home/road teams split 2-2 on the first day of playoffs. Earlier, the Bruins (-220 in 3-1 win vs. Panthers) and Hurricanes (-175 in 2-1 win vs. Islanders) won as chalk. Unders led 3-1 with Kings-Oilers the lone Over.

Tuesday NBA Best Bet

Hawks First Half +6 at Celtics: As discussed above, this is a zig-zag play on the Hawks but we’re focusing in on the first-half line after what happened with our Nets +10 full-game bet vs. the 76ers. Besides, we don’t want to be relying on the Hawks to cover late, especially after seeing them go 5-for-29 on 3-pointers in Game 1. Hopefully Trae Young bounces back from his poor play in the opener when he was just 5-of-18 from the field, including 1-for-5 from 3-point territory.

Tuesday MLB Best Bet

Brewers First 5 +135 at Mariners: Let’s lean back on the Brewers, who we scored with on Sunday at +140. The Brewers are off to a 12-5 start while the Mariners are in a mini anti-swagger spot after having their 4-game winning streak snapped by the Brewers on Monday. Milwaukee’s Colin Rea allowed just 2 hits and 1 earned run in 5 2/3 innings against the Padres in his first start of the season last Thursday.

Tuesday NHL Best Bet

Lightning-Maple Leafs 1P Over 1.5 -130 / Kraken-Avalanche 1P Over 1.5 -135 (parlay pays +208): We mentioned this play on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night as one of the few matchups with 1P Over teams as most of the teams we’ve leaned on the past few months didn’t make the playoffs. But the Lightning and Maple Leafs combined to hit 92-72 (56.1%) with 1P Overs on the season while the Kraken and Avalanche hit for 93-71 (56.7%). We usually hope for a little higher percentage, though that’s offset by giving us a payoff in excess of 2-1.

XFL Week 10 Best Bets

Orlando Guardians +8 at St. Louis Battlehawks and Vegas Vipers +8.5 at Seattle Sea Dragons: We gave these plays on “The Greg Peterson Experience” as both are fades of the Battlehawks, who need to win to clinch an XFL playoff spot, and the Sea Dragons, who need to win in case the Battlehawks fall. In both cases, I feel the lines are inflated too high due to those teams being in “must-win” situations, plus the Guardians and Vipers are much improved from earlier in the season and look like they enjoy playing spoiler down the stretch (Orlando had covered 3 straight before pushing as 2-point dogs in 25-23 loss at San Antonio on Saturday and the Vipers are also playing better since switching to Jalan McClendon at QB and took Houston to the final gun on Saturday). Note: I haven’t added these to the VSiN PRO Picks page yet as we’ve been waiting to see how high these lines go.