On Monday, November 17, it was announced that San Antonio Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama will be re-evaluated in 2-3 weeks with a left calf strain. Wembanyama was on the Injury Report for Sunday’s game against the Sacramento Kings. Many thought he’d be able to push through some pain and play in that one, but he ended up sitting out the 123-110 victory. Now, after some additional testing, everything seems a little more bleak.
Wembanayma, who is averaging 26.2 points, 12.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 3.6 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game, has spearheaded San Antonio to a 9-4 start. The 21-year-old is on the shortlist of Most Valuable Player candidates, has a strong Defensive Player of the Year case, and has simply been a two-way monster for an emerging Western Conference power. Fortunately, this injury isn’t some sort of death sentence. In the grand scheme of things, a 2-3 week absence means very little. However, with a player of this magnitude, there will be some ramifications.
As far as the Spurs go, things should be fine. San Antonio has a tough four-game road trip beginning on November 23, and there’s a good chance the Spurs have a losing record for as long as Wembanyama is out. After all, San Antonio has a +9.5 Efficiency Differential with Wembanyama on the floor, according to Cleaning The Glass. Without him, the team’s Efficiency Differential is -3.6. But it does help that the West isn’t as competitive as everybody expected heading into the season. Even if the Spurs completely fall apart without the Frenchman, they’ll still be in the Play-In picture. They’ll also get the superstar back with plenty of time to get right back in the race for top-six slot.
The real place this injury impacts things is the awards markets. Once the news dropped, Wembanyama went from +700 to 100-1 to win MVP. He also went from -250 to +400 to win DPOY.
Winning MVP was probably a bit of a long shot to begin with. Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are once again the leaders in the pack there, and Wembanyama is probably behind Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo too. However, DPOY genuinely feels like Wembanyama’s to lose for the next decade.
Wembanyama is first in the NBA in “stocks” (combined steals and blocks) per game. He’s also tied for the highest Defensive Win Shares (1.1) in basketball, and nobody in the league is close to touching his 9.9% block rate. Also, while Dunks & Threes hasn’t released 2025-26 Estimated Plus-Minus numbers, it’s a good bet that Wembanyama will be near the top of their DEPM rankings. The Spurs are fifth in the NBA in defensive rating (111.3) this season, and that has everything to do with Wembanyama’s presence as a rim protector.
The issue with this injury is that Wembanyama will likely be at around 10 games missed when he ultimately returns to action. With most awards having a 65-game minimum, that would leave him with very little wiggle room the rest of the season. The Spurs are already very cautious with Wembanyama on back-to-backs, and his sheer size, length, and awkwardness makes him a bit of an injury risk.
It now feels like there’s some real opportunity in the DPOY market. Chet Holmgren became the betting favorite to win once this news came down, but spraying the board and looking for bigger payouts might be the move there.
