The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, April 11, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, NEW YORK, HOUSTON, GOLDEN STATE

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, SACRAMENTO, GOLDEN STATE

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO ML, NEW YORK ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): NEW ORLEANS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON ML, GOLDEN STATE ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): HOU-UTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in NYK-BOS, PLAY OVER in NOP-SAC

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

NO QUALIFYING SCHEDULING SITUATIONS TODAY

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 82-67 (55%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 157-129 (54.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 208-146 (58.8%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in HOU-UTA (o/u at 228), PLAY OVER in GSW-POR (o/u at 222)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 228-240 SU and 210-253-5 ATS (45.4%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-13.5 at POR)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 234-227 SU and 208-240-11 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-13.5 at POR), FADE SACRAMENTO (-1 vs NOP)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 122-149 SU and 121-143-7 ATS (45.8%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-13.5 at POR)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 154-131 SU and 161-116-8 ATS (58.1%) run.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (+2.5 vs NYK)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.4% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (160-177 ATS, 47.5%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (221-213 ATS, 50.9%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING DETROIT (+9.5 vs CHI), CONSIDER FADING UTAH (+10.5 vs HOU)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 61-71 SU and 72-58-3 ATS (55.4%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY UTAH (+10.5 vs HOU)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 188-235 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches: FADE UTAH (+10.5 vs HOU)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +9.5 (+1.9), 2(tie). UTAH +11 (+1.5) and NEW ORLEANS +1 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -2.5 (+1.5), 2. GOLDEN STATE -13.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +11 (+2.5), 2. DETROIT +9.5 (+0.6), 3. NEW ORLEANS +1 (+0.2)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -13.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-UTA OVER 227 (+0.3), 2. GSW-POR OVER 222 (+0.2), 3. CHI-DET OVER 220 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-SAC UNDER 216.5 (-1.2), 2. NYK-BOS UNDER 215 (-0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). NEW ORLEANS +1 (+1.6) and UTAH +11 (+1.6), 3. DETROIT +9.5 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -2.5 (+3.0), 2. GOLDEN STATE -13.5 (+0.5)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-POR OVER 222 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-UTA UNDER 227 (-1.6), 2. NOP-SAC UNDER 216.5 (-1.4), 3(tie). CHI-DET UNDER 220 (-0.4) and NYK-BOS UNDER 215 (-0.4)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(545) CHICAGO at (546) DETROIT
* Home teams are on an 8-2 ATS run in the CHI-DET series
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(547) NEW YORK at (548) BOSTON
* BOSTON has won the last three ATS vs. New York
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(549) HOUSTON at (550) UTAH
* Under the total is 7-3 in the last 10 of the HOU-UTA series at Utah
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(551) NEW ORLEANS at (552) SACRAMENTO
* NEW ORLEANS has won the last four ATS vs. Sacramento
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(553) GOLDEN STATE at (554) PORTLAND
* Home teams are on an 8-4 ATS run in the GSW-POR series
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS

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