The following NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, March 1, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

Strategies using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, NEW ORLEANS, MEMPHIS, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE, MEMPHIS, MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, GOLDEN STATE, INDIANA, LA CLIPPERS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND ML, MILWAUKEE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, LA CLIPPERS ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-DET, CHA-PHI, DAL-BOS, GSW-TOR, POR-MEM, MIL-CHI, WSH-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CLE-DET, GSW-TOR, WSH-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in CHA-PHI, PLAY OVER in POR-MEM

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 118-84 SU but 85-115-1 ATS (42.5%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
3/1: Fade BOSTON vs. Dallas
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-9.5 vs DAL)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 50-38 SU but 35-53 ATS (39.8%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
3/1: Fade BOSTON vs. Dallas
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-9.5 vs DAL)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 66-41 SU but 44-62-1 ATS (41.5%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
3/1: Fade BOSTON vs. Dallas
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-9.5 vs DAL)

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 61-26 SU and 52-32-3 ATS (61.9%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
3/1: CHICAGO vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (+4 vs MIL)

3/1: LA CLIPPERS vs. Washington
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-15.5 vs WSH)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 36-21 SU but 22-34-1 ATS (39.3%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last three seasons.
3/1: FADE BOSTON vs. Dallas
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-9.5 vs DAL)

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 23-34 SU but 32-24-1 ATS (57.1%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
3/1: MILWAUKEE at Chicago
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-4 at CHI)

* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 44-20 SU and 36-27-1 ATS (57.1%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
3/1: CHICAGO vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (+4 vs MIL)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 27-9 SU and 23-12-1 ATS (65.7%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
3/1: PHILADELPHIA vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-11 vs CHA)

* Under the total was 91-54-1 (62.8%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/1: UNDER the total in MINNESOTA-SACRAMENTO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 224)

* Over the total was 72-49 (59.5%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in  6 Days game.
3/1: Over the total in CHICAGO-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221.5)

* Over the total was 64-52 (55.2%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/1: Over the total in CHICAGO-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221.5)

* Over the total was 25-19 (56.8%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
3/1: Over the total in BOSTON-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 235.5)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what has been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

WASHINGTON is 19-10 ATS (65.5%) as a road underdog this season but 9-19 ATS (32.1%) as a home underdog.
3/1: at LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+15.5 at LAC)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* GOLDEN STATE is 24-12 Over the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
3/1: Over the total in TORONTO-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237)

* MEMPHIS is 50-18 SU and 41-26 ATS at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
3/1: MEMPHIS vs. Portland
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (-1.5 vs POR)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 84-52 SU and 82-51-3 ATS (61.7%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY PORTLAND (+1.5 at MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 142-29 SU but just 70-99-2 ATS (41.4%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-15.5 vs WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 77-58 (57%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 143-113 (55.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 176-133 (57%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CHA-PHI (o/u at 212.5), PLAY OVER in WSH-LAC (o/u at 239)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

QUALITY OF LOSSES/WINS CAN MATTER

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts

NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 236-182 SU but 181-226-11 ATS (44.5%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 32-58 ATS.
System Match: FADE DETROIT (+9 at CLE)

Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 56-34 (62.2%) in their last 90 tries.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in CLE-DET (o/u at 221.5)

UNUSUAL SHOOTING PERFORMANCE SYSTEMS

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 259-204 (55.9%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DAL-BOS (o/u at 235.5), PLAY UNDER in MIL-CHI (o/u at 221.5)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 215-215 SU and 192-226-10 ATS (45.9%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-9 at DET)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 114-140 SU and 113-135-6 ATS (45.6%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-9 at DET)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 82-15 SU but 40-55-3 ATS (42.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (only if they become double-digit favorites vs DAL, -9.5 currently)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.6% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (151-168 ATS, 47.3%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (207-192 ATS, 51.9%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE PORTLAND (+1.5 at MEM), CONSIDER PLAYING WASHINGTON (+15.5 at LAC)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 57-57 SU and 66-46-3 ATS (58.9%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+15.5 at LAC)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 172-213 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 22-98 SU and 50-67-3 ATS (42.7%).
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-9.5 vs DAL), FADE PORTLAND (+1.5 at MEM), FADE WASHINGTON (+15.5 at LAC)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 36-55 ATS (39.6%) in the next game, including 16-29 ATS (35.5%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-9.5 vs DAL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +9 (+2.6), 2. CHICAGO +4 (+1.7), 3. TORONTO +3 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -11 (+2.4), 2. LA CLIPPERS -15.5 (+0.6), 3. MINNESOTA -6.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +4 (+3.9), 2. TORONTO +3 (+1.5), 3. CHARLOTTE +11 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS -15.5 (+2.1), 2. MINNESOTA -6.5 (+1.2), 3. BOSTON -9.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-PHI OVER 212.5 (+4.0), 2. GSW-TOR OVER 237 (+2.4), 3. WSH-LAC OVER 239 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-MIN UNDER 224 (-4.7), 2. POR-MEM UNDER 208.5 (-2.8), 3. IND-NOP UNDER 238.5 (-0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +1.5 (+3.6), 2. DALLAS +9.5 (+3.1), 3. INDIANA +5.5 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -11 (+2.9), 2. LA CLIPPERS -15.5 (+2.4), 3. CLEVELAND -9 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-PHI OVER 212.5 (+4.3), 2. MIL-CHI OVER 221.5 (+3.6), 3. DAL-BOS OVER 235.5 (+2.9)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-MIN UNDER 224 (-3.3), 2. IND-NOP UNDER 238.5 (-1.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(553) CHARLOTTE at (554) PHILADELPHIA
* FAVORITES are on a 5-1 ATS run in the CHA-PHI series but lost the last time
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(551) CLEVELAND at (552) DETROIT
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the CLE-DET series but lost last time
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(555) DALLAS at (556) BOSTON
* Under the total is 6-1-1 in the last eight of the DAL-BOS series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(557) GOLDEN STATE at (558) TORONTO
* The last five games of the GSW-TOR series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(561) INDIANA at (562) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven hosting Indiana
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(565) MILWAUKEE at (566) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO has won the last three ATS vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(563) PORTLAND at (564) MEMPHIS
* PORTLAND has won the last five ATS at Memphis
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS

(559) SACRAMENTO at (560) MINNESOTA
* Underdogs have won the last seven ATS in the SAC-MIN series
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

(567) WASHINGTON at (568) LA CLIPPERS
* LA CLIPPERS are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 versus Washington
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

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