The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, March 21, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:15 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, DALLAS, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, SACRAMENTO

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, SACRAMENTO, MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, SACRAMENTO, HOUSTON, NEW YORK, PHOENIX

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on Underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO ML, DALLAS ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much”, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAC-WSH, UTA-DAL, ATL-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAC-WSH, UTA-DAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in NOP-ORL, PLAY OVER in CHI-HOU, PLAY OVER in NYK-DEN

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 64-27 SU and 55-33-3 ATS (62.5%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
3/21: WASHINGTON vs. Sacramento
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+10.5 vs SAC)

* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 47-23 SU and 38-31-1 ATS (55.1%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
3/21: WASHINGTON vs. Sacramento
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+10.5 vs SAC)

* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 31-26 SU and 31-26 ATS (54.4%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
3/21: MILWAUKEE vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-9.5 vs BKN)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 30-30 SU and 34-26 ATS (56.7%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
3/21: PHOENIX vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-9 vs ATL)

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 17-13 SU and 18-12  ATS (60%) last season hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
3/21: PHOENIX vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-9 vs ATL)

* Over the total was 74-53 (58.3%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
3/21: Over the total in WASHINGTON-SACRAMENTO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 236.5)

* Over the total was 77-53 (59.2%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rdStraightRoad game.
3/21: Over the total in PHOENIX-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226.5)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

CHICAGO is 21-8 OVER the total (72.4%) versus teams from the Western Conference this season.
3/21 at Houston
System Match: PLAY OVER in CHI-HOU (o/u at 219.5)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 30-10 SU and ATS (75%).
3/21 vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+2.5 vs NOP)

WASHINGTON is 20-13 ATS (60.6%) as a road underdog this season but 9-21 ATS (30%) as a home underdog
3/21 vs Sacramento
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+10.5 vs SAC)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA is 6-11 SU and 5-12 ATS on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last two seasons
3/21: Fade ATLANTA at Phoenix
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+9 at PHX)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 118-35 SU and 97-56 ATS (63.4%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-9.5 vs NYK)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 149-29 SU but just 74-101-3 ATS (42.3%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE SACRAMENTO (-10.5 at WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-61 (56.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 146-117 (55.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 187-138 (58.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in SAC-WSH (o/u at 236.5), PLAY OVER in UTA-DAL (o/u at 236)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 188-115 SU but 135-164-4 ATS (45.2%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 26-32 ATS.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-4 vs CHI)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 224-125 SU but just 145-193-11 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: FADE DENVER (-9.5 vs NYK)

Unusual shooting performance systems

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 263-206 (56.1%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in CHI-HOU (o/u at 219.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 210-233 SU and 197-242-4 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE DENVER (-9.5 vs NYK)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +9.5 (+1.6), 2. ORLANDO +2.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -9.5 (+2.8), 2. DALLAS -14.5 (+2.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +9.5 (+3.5), 2. BROOKLYN +10 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -14 (+1.1), 2. SACRAMENTO -10.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-DEN OVER 207.5 (+3.3), 2. CHI-HOU OVER 219.5 (+1.0), 3. ATL-PHO OVER 225.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-ORL UNDER 207 (-0.8), 2. BKN-MIL UNDER 220.5 (-0.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +11 (+1.6), 2. ORLANDO +2.5 (+1.2), 3. CHICAGO +4 (+0.4),

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -14 (+3.2), 2. PHOENIX -9.5 (+2.6), 3. MILWAUKEE -10 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-PHX OVER 225.5 (+2.2), 2. NOP-ORL OVER 207 (+1.7), 3. NYK-DEN OVER 207.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-HOU UNDER 219.5 (-3.6), 2. BRK-MIL UNDER 220.5 (-1.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(539) ATLANTA at (540) PHOENIX
* ATLANTA has won the last four ATS versus Phoenix
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS

(533) BROOKLYN at (534) MILWAUKEE
* Road teams are 6-3 ATS in the last nine of the BRK-MIL series
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

(531) CHICAGO at (532) HOUSTON
* The last five games of the CHI-HOU series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(527) NEW ORLEANS at (528) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO is on a 12-4-1 ATS surge vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(537) NEW YORK at (538) DENVER
* NEW YORK is on a 3-0 ATS win streak versus Denver
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(529) SACRAMENTO at (530) WASHINGTON
* SACRAMENTO has won the last four ATS at Washington
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

(535) UTAH at (536) DALLAS
* DALLAS is 6-3 ATS in the last nine hosting Utah
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

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