The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, March 23, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, HOUSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, PHOENIX, BOSTON, DENVER

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK, TORONTO, BOSTON, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): ORLANDO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK ML, ATLANTA ML, DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): UTAH ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX ML, HOUSTON ML, DENVER ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAC-ORL, CHA-ATL, TOR-WSH, PHX-SAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): TOR-WSH, PHX-SAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BKN-NYK, PLAY UNDER in SAC-ORL, PLAY OVER in CHA-ATL, PLAY OVER in DEN-POR

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 175-116 SU and 170-113 ATS (60.1%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
3/23: CHARLOTTE at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+8 at ATL)

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 45-35 SU & 45-34-1 ATS (57%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last three seasons.
3/23: ATLANTA vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-8 vs CHA)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 57-48 SU & 56-47-2 ATS (54.4%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game over the last two seasons.

3/23: PORTLAND vs. Denver
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+12.5 vs DEN)

3/23: SAN ANTONIO vs. Phoenix
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+10.5 vs PHX)

* Teams playing a 4th Straight Home game are 22-7 SU and 17-12 ATS (58.6%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
3/23: WASHINGTON vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-6 vs TOR)

* Home teams playing on One Day Rest game are 15-7 SU and ATS (68.2%) hosting teams playing in a 3rd Road in 8+ Days game over the last three seasons.
3/23: ATLANTA vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-8 vs CHA)

* Over the total was 100-69 (59.2%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
3/23: Over the total in ATLANTA-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 214)

* Under the total was 94-62-1 (60.3%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/23: Under the total in PORTLAND-DENVER
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 212)

* Over the total was 38-28 (57.6%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
3/23: Over the total in WASHINGTON-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231)

* Under the total was 33-19 (63.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
3/23: Under the total in ATLANTA-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 214)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

ATLANTA is 17-23 SU and 12-28 ATS (30%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season
3/23 vs. Charlotte
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-8 vs CHA)

NEW YORK has dominated its weakest competition this season, going 20-1 SU and 15-5-1 ATS (78.9%) versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of less than 95.
3/23 vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-7 vs BKN)

NEW YORK has gone 10-2 Under the total (83.3%) at home this season when returning from a road trip in their prior game.
3/23 vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY UNDER in BKN-NYK (o/u at 203)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 31-10 SU and ATS (75.6%).
3/23 vs. Sacramento
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-2.5 vs SAC)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-61 (56.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 146-119 (55.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 190-139 (57.8%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in PHX-SAS (o/u at 231), PLAY OVER in UTA-HOU (o/u at 228.5), PLAY UNDER in DEN-POR (o/u at 212)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 211-233 SU and 198-242-4 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE PHOENIX (-10 at SAS)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 223-221 SU and 200-232-10 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE PHOENIX (-10 at SAS)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 118-145 SU and 118-139-6 ATS (45.9%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE PHOENIX (-10 at SAS)

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 141-53 SU and 109-83-2 ATS (56.8%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-8 vs CHA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 26-53 SU but 42-37 ATS (53.2%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING UTAH (+11 at HOU)

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 84-15 SU but 41-56-3 ATS (42.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-11 vs UTA)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.7% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (156-173 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (209-200 ATS, 51.1%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING TORONTO (+6 at WSH), CONSIDER FADING UTAH (+11 at HOU)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 58-62 SU and 67-51-3 ATS (56.8%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY UTAH (+11 at HOU)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 176-220 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 23-100 SU and 51-69-3 ATS (42.5%).
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-7 at CHI), FADE TORONTO (+6 at WSH), FADE HOUSTON (-11 vs UTA)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 38-56 ATS (40.4%) in the next game, including 16-30 ATS (34.8%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-7 at CHI)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +8 (+2.4), 2. SAN ANTONIO +10.5 (+2.0), 3. BROOKLYN +7 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -7 (+0.7), 2. HOUSTON -11 (+0.4), 3. ORLANDO -2.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +12.5 (+3.5), 2. BROOKLYN +7 (+2.9), 3. CHARLOTTE +8 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -7 (+1.9), 2. ORLANDO -2.5 (+1.5), 3. PHOENIX -10.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-CHI OVER 221.5 (+3.1), 2. BKN-NYK OVER 203 (+1.8), 3. TOR-WSH OVER 231 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-HOU UNDER 228 (-3.3), 2(tie). SAC-ORL UNDER 218 (-1.5) and PHX-SAS UNDER 232 (-1.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +12.5 (+2.7), 2. SACRAMENTO +2.5 (+1.7), 3. BROOKLYN +7 (+1.4)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -7 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-CHI OVER 221.5 (+3.7), 2. DEN-POR OVER 212 (+2.5), 3. BKN-NYK OVER 203 (+2.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-SAS UNDER 232 (-3.8), 2. UTA-HOU UNDER 228 (-3.6), 3. CHA-ATL UNDER 214 (-2.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(567) BOSTON at (568) CHICAGO
* Road teams are 8-4 ATS in the last 12 of the BOS-CHI series
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(557) BROOKLYN at (558) NEW YORK
* Favorites have won seven straight ATS in the BRK-NYK set
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(561) CHARLOTTE at (562) ATLANTA
* Underdogs have won the last six ATS in the CHA-ATL series
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS

(571) DENVER at (572) PORTLAND
* Favorites are 9-5 ATS in the DEN-POR series since 2021
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(565) PHOENIX at (566) SAN ANTONIO
* Road teams are on a 12-2-2 ATS run in the PHO-SAN series
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

(559) SACRAMENTO at (560) ORLANDO
* The last nine games of the SAC-ORL series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(563) TORONTO at (564) WASHINGTON
* TORONTO is 5-1 ATS in the last six at Washington
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

(569) UTAH at (570) HOUSTON
* Underdogs are on a 12-4 ATS surge in the UTA-HOU series
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

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