Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, March 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top NBA Resources:
- NBA Betting Primer (Free Download)
- NBA Public Betting Percentages & Betting Splits
- NBA Odds
- NBA Injury Report Today
- Parlay Calculator
- NBA Prop Bet Analyzer
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MILWAUKEE
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON ML
This last system involves totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): MIL-NOP
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 31-31 SU and 35-27 ATS (55.6%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game in the last two seasons.
3/28: ATLANTA vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (+16 vs BOS)
* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 18-14 SU and 19-13 ATS (59.4%) last season hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
3/28: ATLANTA vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (+16 vs BOS)
* Over the total was 79-53 (59.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
3/28: Over the total in ATLANTA-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226.5)
Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season
There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.
MILWAUKEE is 10-2 Under the total (83.3%) on the road versus Western Conference foes so far this season.
3/28 at New Orleans
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIL-NOP (o/u at 224.5)
MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 24-19 SU but 16-27 ATS (37.2%).
3/28 at New Orleans
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-1 at NOP)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA is 20-37 SU and 17-39 ATS in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
3/28: Fade ATLANTA vs. Boston
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+16 vs BOS)
* ATLANTA was 32-14 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario in the last two seasons
3/28: Over the total in BOSTON-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-63 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 147-121 (54.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 196-142 (58%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BOS-ATL (o/u at 226.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.
NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +16 (+3.2), 2. NEW ORLEANS +1 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +1 (+2.2), 2. ATLANTA +16 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOS-ATL UNDER 226.5 (-0.6)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +16 (+4.2), 2. NEW ORLEANS +1 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-ATL UNDER 226.5 (-0.7), 2. MIL-NOP UNDER 224.5 (-0.2)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(567) BOSTON at (568) ATLANTA
* BOSTON is 4-1 ATS in the last five games at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS
(569) MILWAUKEE at (570) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 14-1 in the last 15 of the MIL-NOP series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
