The 2023-24 NBA regular season is coming to an end and we’re continuing to tackle it hard at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel continues to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Thursday, March 28th. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 28
Top NBA Resources:
- NBA Betting Primer (Free Download)
- NBA Public Betting Percentages & Betting Splits
- NBA Odds
- NBA Injury Report Today
- Parlay Calculator
- NBA Prop Bet Analyzer
2023 Record: 286-297-2 (-7.87 units)
NBA Best Bets Today – March 28
Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 pm ET
In the three games the Pelicans have played without Brandon Ingram, the team is 2-1 with an offensive rating of 118.2 and a defensive rating of 107.3. Both of those are better than New Orleans’ season-long numbers. Of course, losing Ingram doesn’t make the Pelicans better. He’s one of the most gifted scorers in the entire league. But the absence hasn’t harmed New Orleans just yet. And I don’t see it doing so tonight, which is why I’m going to the Pelicans with my NBA best bets.
While the Pelicans’ offensive rating being higher without Ingram is fluky, the same probably isn’t true of the defensive rating. Ingram is one of the worst defenders in the rotation, so the Pelicans are now playing lineup combinations that defend at a higher level. And I like that in tonight’s meeting with a Bucks team that is elite offensively and weak defensively. New Orleans is going to need to be able to slow down Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. And it might be easier this way. The Pelicans have lengthy, rangy defenders they can play bigger minutes now, and that should help quite a bit.
Offensively, a bigger on-ball role for CJ McCollum in a game like this should be good. The Bucks don’t defend the perimeter very well, so McCollum should be able to get his shots whenever he wants. He’ll also be able to kick to guys like Herb Jones and Trey Murphy, who should be able to make Milwaukee pay for its miserable 3-point defense. The Pelicans don’t shoot a ton of 3s, but they do shoot them at a high percentage.
The Pelicans are also 12-4 against the spread when facing a team that beat them by 10 or more earlier in the year. New Orleans has won those games by an average of 5.8 points per game. So, I like Willie Green to come up with a good game plan here.
Bet: Pelicans +1.5 (-110 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 28
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 pm ET
Backing a Vit Krejci player prop feels a little like backing a Jontay Porter player prop. But I like the Hawks forward to have at least eight points tonight. Krejci had actually scored at least nine points in four straight games before scoring seven against the Portland Trail Blazers. But the most important thing is that Krejci has played at least 31 minutes in four consecutive games. He’s a big part of this Atlanta rotation without Jalen Johnson. And Johnson likely won’t be back for another couple of days. So, I’m expecting Krejci to have some opportunities to score. And he did have 16 points against the Celtics on Monday.
Bet: Krejci Over 7.5 Points (+100) & Krejci Alt Points 10+ (+200 – 0.5 units)
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