The following nba betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, March 4, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, MILWAUKEE, MINNESOTA, SACRAMENTO, LA LAKERS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, MINNESOTA, UTAH, SACRAMENTO, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, MILWAUKEE, UTAH, SACRAMENTO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, a R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MEM-BKN, LAC-MIL, POR-MIN, CHI-SAC, OKC-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAC-MIL, WSH-UTA, CHI-SAC, OKC-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in MEM-BKN, PLAY UNDER in POR-MIN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%)
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in WSH-UTA

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 62-27 SU and 53-33-3 ATS (61.6%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game last season.
3/4: LA LAKERS vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-1 vs OKC)

* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 44-22 SU and 36-29-1 ATS (55.4%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
3/4: LA LAKERS vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-1 vs OKC)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 29-25 SU and 32-22 ATS (59.3%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
3/4: MINNESOTA vs. Portland
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-14 vs POR)

* Home teams playing an 2 Days Rest were 30-21 SU but 24-26-1 ATS (48%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
3/4: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. La Clippers
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-5 vs LAC)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 53-42 SU and 50-44-1 ATS (53.2%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
3/4: MINNESOTA vs. Portland
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-14 vs POR)

* Under the total was 91-55-1 (62.3%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/4: Under the total in MINNESOTA-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 210.5)

* Over the total was 72-51 (58.5%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
3/4: Over the total in LA LAKERS-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 238.5)

* Over the total was 73-51 (58.9%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
3/4: Over the total in MINNESOTA-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 210.5)

* Under the total was 49-44-1 (52.7%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/4: Under the total in PORTLAND-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 210.5)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

CHICAGO is 17-5 Over the total (81%) versus teams from the Western Conference this season.
3/4 at Sacramento
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227.5)

WASHINGTON is 19-11 ATS (63.3%) as a road underdog this season but 9-19 ATS (32.1%) as a home underdog.
3/4 at Utah
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+6 at UTA)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* BROOKLYN is 25-13 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
3/4: Under the total in MEMPHIS-BROOKLYN

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 209.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 118-33 SU & 97-54 ATS (64.2%) run.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-5 vs LAC)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 77-58 (57%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 144-113 (56%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 177-134 (56.9%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in POR-MIN (o/u at 210.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 105-109 SU but 113-88-3 ATS (56.2%), including 83-45 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+6 at UTA)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 121-42 SU and 101-60-2 ATS (62.7%) in their last 163 tries.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-14 vs POR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details 9 NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.4% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (152-169 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (207-193 ATS, 51.8%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE MEMPHIS (+9 at BKN), FADE WASHINGTON (+6 at UTA)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 57-58 SU and 66-47-3 ATS (58.4%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+6 at UTA)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 174-215 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 23-99 SU and 51-68-3 ATS (42.9%).
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (+6 at UTA)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +6.5 (+4.1), 2. WASHINGTON +6 (+2.4), 3. LA CLIPPERS +5.5 (+2.3)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -14 (+3.3), 2. BROOKLYN -9.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +6.5 (+4.7), 2. PORTLAND +14 (+3.4), 3. LA CLIPPERS +5.5 (+2.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). POR-MIN OVER 210.5 (+0.9) and OKC-LAL OVER 238.5 (+0.9), 3. CHI-SAC OVER 227.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-BKN UNDER 208 (-2.2), 2. LAC-MIL UNDER 226.5 (-1.0), 3. WSH-UTA UNDER 240.5 (-0.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +6.5 (+4.0), 2. LA CLIPPERS +5.5 (+2.8), 3. WASHINGTON +6 (+2.7)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -14 (+2.6), 2. BROOKLYN -9.5 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-LAL OVER 238.5 (+4.5), 2. WSH-UTA OVER 240.5 (+2.9), 3. CHI-SAC OVER 227.5 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-BKN UNDER 208 (-3.4), 2. POR-MIN UNDER 210.5 (-0.7)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(509) CHICAGO at (510) SACRAMENTO
* SACRAMENTO has won the last four ATS vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

(503) LA CLIPPERS at (504) MILWAUKEE
* Road teams have won the last four ATS in the LAC-MIL series
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

(501) MEMPHIS at (502) BROOKLYN
* MEMPHIS is on a 10-2 ATS surge at Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(511) OKLAHOMA CITY at (512) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS are 6-2 ATS in the last eight versus Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

(505) PORTLAND at (506) MINNESOTA
* The last four games of the POR-MIN series in Minnesota went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(507) WASHINGTON at (508) UTAH
* Road teams are on an 8-3 ATS run in the WAS-UTA series
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

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