The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Saturday, February 10, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, ORLANDO, ATLANTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, INDIANA, PHOENIX, NEW ORLEANS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, PHOENIX, NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, BROOKLYN, MEMPHIS, ATLANTA

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.’s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): PHOENIX ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): NEW YORK ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAS-BKN, PHI-WSH, MEM-CHA, NOP-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CHI-ORL, PLAY UNDER in MEM-CHA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER instead in HOU-ATL, PLAY UNDER instead in PHX-GSW

Schedule situations crucial for NBA handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 170-113 SU and 167-108 ATS (60.7%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
2/10: OKLAHOMA CITY at Dallas
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at DAL)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 114-82 SU but 83-111-1 ATS (42.8%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/10: Fade LA CLIPPERS vs. Detroit
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-16 vs DET)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 48-38 SU but 34-52 ATS (39.5%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
2/10: Fade LA CLIPPERS vs. Detroit
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-16 vs DET)

* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 42-19 SU and 34-26-1 ATS (56.7%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
2/10: ATLANTA vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-4.5 vs HOU)

* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 28-22 SU and 28-22 ATS (56%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
2/10: WASHINGTON vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+4 vs PHI)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 25-23 SU and 29-19 ATS (60.4%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
2/10: TORONTO vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+8.5 vs CLE)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 48-40 SU and 47-40-1 ATS (54%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
2/10: TORONTO vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+8.5 vs CLE)

* Home teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game scenario were 22-9 SU and 20-11 ATS (65.5%) last season hosting teams playing on 3+ Days Rest.
2/10: DALLAS vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+3 vs OKC)

* Over the total was 98-63 (60.9%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
2/10: Over the total in DALLAS-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 239)

* Over the total was 72-46 (61%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
2/10: Over the total in ATLANTA-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 242)

* Over the total was 72-46 (61%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
2/10: OVER the total in TORONTO-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 230)

* Over the total was 64-49 (56.6%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
2/10: Over the total in ATLANTA-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 242)

* Under the total was 45-42 (51.7%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/10: Under the total in CLEVELAND-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 230)

* Over the total was 25-17 (59.5%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
2/10: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 235)

* Over the total was 25-14 (64.1%) last season when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
2/10: Over the total in WASHINGTON-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 239)

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA is 18-35 SU and 15-37 ATS in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
2/10: Fade ATLANTA vs. Houston
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-4.5 vs HOU)

* ATLANTA was 30-11 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season
2/10: Over the total in HOUSTON-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 242)

* BROOKLYN is 24-12 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
2/10: Under the total in SAN ANTONIO-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 232)

* BROOKLYN was 17-9 UNDER the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario last season
2/10: Under the total in SAN ANTONIO-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 232)

* GOLDEN STATE is 42-8 SU and 33-16 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
2/10: GOLDEN STATE vs. Phoenix
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (+2 vs PHX)

* LA CLIPPERS is 13-9 SU but 5-17 ATS at HOME in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last two seasons
2/10: Fade LA CLIPPERS vs. Detroit
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-16 vs DET)

* SAN ANTONIO was 3-19 SU and 7-15 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario last season
2/10: Fade SAN ANTONIO at Brooklyn
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+5.5 at BKN)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 82-51 SU and 80-50-3 ATS (61.5%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY MEMPHIS (-4.5 at CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 59-18 SU and 52-24-1 ATS (68.4%).
System Matches: PLAY MEMPHIS (-4.5 at CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 133-28 SU but just 64-95-2 ATS (40.3%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-16 vs DET)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:

Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 72-58 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 139-107 (56.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 174-127 (57.8%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DET-LAC (o/u at 235)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

EXTREME SCORING SYSTEMS
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble.

NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 124-76 SU but 85-111-4 ATS (43.4%) in the follow-up contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. Included among this is a 73-98 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 at POR)

QUALITY OF WINS/LOSSES CAN MATTER
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts.

NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 231-179 SU but 178-221-11 ATS (44.6%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 32-57 ATS.
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (+2 vs PHX)

UNUSUAL SHOOTING PERFORMANCE SYSTEMS
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 199-218 SU and 185-229-3 ATS (44.7%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at DAL), FADE DETROIT (+16 at LAC), FADE ORLANDO (-5 vs CHI), FADE GOLDEN STATE (+2 vs PHX)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 209-209 SU and 186-220-10 ATS (45.8%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+4 vs PHI)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in rare role of playing as road favorites, going 29-8 SU and 27-8-2 ATS (77.1%) in their last 37 tries.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-4 at WSH), PLAY MEMPHIS (-4.5 at CHA)

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5-points or more, going 45-12 SU and 35-20-2 ATS (63.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-8.5 at TOR)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (144-164 ATS, 46.8%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (197-185 ATS, 51.6%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE CHARLOTTE (+4.5 vs MEM)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 55-48 SU and 60-41-3 ATS (59.4%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+4 vs PHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 164-204 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 20-94 SU and 47-64-3 ATS (42.3%).
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-8.5 at TOR), FADE CHARLOTTE (+4.5 vs MEM), FADE MEMPHIS (-4.5 at CHA)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 34-54 ATS (38.6%) in the next game, including 15-29 ATS (34.1%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-8.5 at TOR)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +3 (+3.4), 2. GOLDEN STATE +2 (+3.1), 3. HOUSTON +4.5 (+2.9)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -7.5 (+5.7), 2. LA CLIPPERS -16 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +5 (+1.5), 2. HOUSTON +4.5 (+1.2), 3. DALLAS +3 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -4 (+3.3), 2. BROOKLYN -5.5 (+1.8), 3. NEW ORLEANS -7.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-CHA OVER 216.5 (+3.5), 2. DET-LAC OVER 235 (+3.2), 3. OKC-DAL OVER 239 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-WSH UNDER 239 (-1.8), 2. HOU-ATL UNDER 242 (-1.2), 3. CHI-ORL UNDER 219.5 (-1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +2 (+4.6), 2. DALLAS +3 (+4.5), 3. SAN ANTONIO +5.5 (+4.0)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -7.5 (+5.7), 2. LA CLIPPERS -16 (+2.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-LAC OVER 235 (+5.0), 2. NOP-POR OVER 222.5 (+4.3), 3. OKC-DAL OVER 239 (+2.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-CHA UNDER 216.5 (-4.3), 2. HOU-ATL UNDER 242 (-2.3), 3. PHI-WSH UNDER 239 (-1.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(553) CHICAGO at (554) ORLANDO
* Road teams are on a 5-0 ATS run in the CHI-ORL series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(557) CLEVELAND at (558) TORONTO
* TORONTO is 8-1 ATS in the last nine hosting Cleveland
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

(547) DETROIT at (548) LA CLIPPERS
* DETROIT is 5-1 ATS in the last six at LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(559) HOUSTON at (560) ATLANTA
* ROAD TEAMS are 4-1 ATS in the last five of the HOU-ATL series
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(561) INDIANA at (562) NEW YORK
* Favorites are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 of the IND-NYK series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(555) MEMPHIS at (556) CHARLOTTE
* MEMPHIS is on a 7-1 ATS run versus Charlotte
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(565) NEW ORLEANS at (566) PORTLAND
* Under the total is 7-1 in last eight of the NOP-POR series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(545) OKLAHOMA CITY at (546) DALLAS
* OKLAHOMA CITY has won the last seven ATS versus Dallas
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(551) PHILADELPHIA at (552) WASHINGTON
* Home teams have swept the last five ATS in the PHI-WAS series
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

(563) PHOENIX at (564) GOLDEN STATE
* Over the total is 5-1-1 in the last seven of the PHO-GSW series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(549) SAN ANTONIO at (550) BROOKLYN
* The last four games of the SAN-BRK series in Brooklyn went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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