The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, January 23, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 PM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the HOME side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this“supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, NEW YORK

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (HOME or ROAD), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER, NEW YORK, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, a R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, OKLAHOMA CITY, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much”, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-IND, NYK-BKN, UTA-NOP, POR-OKC

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 63-37 SU & 60-37-3 ATS (61.9%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
1/23: LA CLIPPERS vs. La Lakers
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-9.5 vs LAL)

The following are some of the top team specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* INDIANA is 56-32 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
1/23: Over the total in INDIANA-DENVER
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 238.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 70-56 (55.6%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 129-103 (55.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 172-119 (59.1%).
System Match: PLAY UNDER in POR-OKC (o/u at 233.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 215-217 SU and 187-235-10 ATS (44.3%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (+9.5 at LAC)

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 248-196 (55.9%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in POR-OKC (o/u at 233.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 188-210 SU and 172-224-2 ATS (43.4%) in the next game
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-9.5 vs LAL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: INDIANA +5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -13.5 (+4.1), 2. NEW YORK -4 (+1.3), 3. NEW ORLEANS -6.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +13.5 (+1.5), 2. INDIANA +5 (+1.3), 3. UTAH +6.5 (+0.9)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LA CLIPPERS -9.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-OKC OVER 233.5 (+0.8), 2. DEN-IND OVER 238.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). UTA-NOP UNDER 239.5 (-0.7) and LAL-LAC UNDER 234.5 (-0.7), 3. NYK-BKN UNDER 223 (-0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -13.5 (+2.5), 2. DENVER -5 (+1.7), 3. NEW YORK -4 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-OKC OVER 233.5 (+1.1), 2. NYK-BKN OVER 223 (+0.2), 3. DEN-IND OVER 238.5 (+0.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LAL-LAC UNDER 234.5 (-0.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(517) DENVER at (518) INDIANA
* Over the total is 7-1 in last eight of the DEN-IND series at Indiana
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(519) NEW YORK at (520) BROOKLYN
* Favorites have swept the last six ATS in the NYK-BRK series
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(521) UTAH at (522) NEW ORLEANS
* Underdogs are on a 7-0 ATS streak in the UTA-NOP series
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

(523) PORTLAND at (524) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 9-1 ATS run versus Portland
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(525) LA LAKERS at (526) LA CLIPPERS
* LA CLIPPERS are 5-1 ATS in last six “hosting” LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR