The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Wednesday, December 13, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:45 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, HOUSTON, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NEW ORLEANS, LA LAKERS, NEW YORK
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, PHOENIX, NEW YORK
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-WSH, MEM-HOU, IND-MIL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-WSH, ATL-TOR, IND-MIL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: In NBA games with extremely low totals last season, or those less than 214, majority handle bettors were 9-22 (29%), whole majority number of bets groups were even worse at 7-24 (22.6%).
System Matches (FADE THE UNDER): MEM-HOU
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY THE UNDER): IND-MIL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 60-36 SU and 57-36-3 ATS (61.3%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
12/13: PHOENIX vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-2 vs BKN)
* Home teams on One Day Rest are 42-27 SU and 41-27-1 ATS (60.3%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last three seasons.
12/13: UTAH vs. New York
System Match: PLAY UTAH (+6 vs NYK)
12/13: WASHINGTON vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs NOP)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 30-24 SU and 30-23-1 ATS (56.6%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
12/13: PHOENIX vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-2 vs BKN)
* Under the total was 30-23 (56.6%) last season when the home team was on H@H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
12/13: Under the total in BROOKLYN-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227)
* Under the total was 26-15 (63.4%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
12/13: Under the total in UTAH-NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 228)
12/13: Under the total in WASHINGTON-NEW ORLEANS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 241.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
NO QUALIFYING TEAM SPECIFIC TRENDS TODAY
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 106-28 SU and 88-46 ATS (65.7%) run.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-6.5 vs IND)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-54 (55%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 115-85 (57.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 164-109 (60.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in PHI-DET (o/u at 233)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 188-190 SU and 158-210-10 ATS (42.9%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-12 at DET), FADE NEW YORK (-6 at UTA)
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 233-179 (56.6%) since 2021.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in IND-MIL (o/u at 258.5), PLAY UNDER in NOP-WSH (o/u at 241.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 166-186 SU and 152-198-2 ATS (43.4%) in the next game.
System Matches: FADE NEW YORK (-6 at UTA), FADE LA LAKERS (-1.5 at SAS)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 186-186 SU and 163-198-11 ATS (45.2%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-12 at DET)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 99-68 SU and 99-66-2 ATS (60%).
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-6 vs MEM), PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+1.5 vs LAL)
Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 113-42 SU and 89-64-2 ATS (58.2%).
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-1.5 at SAS)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 59-61 SU and 51-64-5 ATS (44.3%) in their next game.
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-12 at DET)
NBA teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 67-48 SU and 69-46 ATS (60%).
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs NOP)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 7.1% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (124-151 ATS, 45.1%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (179-164 ATS, 52.2%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (+12 vs. PHI), PLAY WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs NOP), PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+1.5 vs LAL)
*ATL-TOR play each other (both losing teams and both have lost the last four)*
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 43-38 SU and 46-33-3 ATS (58.2%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs NOP), PLAY ATLANTA (+1.5 at TOR)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 146-191 ATS (43.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-84 SU and 41-58-3 ATS (41.4%).
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+12 vs PHI), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+1.5 vs LAL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +8 (+1.5), 2. INDIANA +6.5 (+1.2), 3. CHARLOTTE +8 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -1.5 (+2.3), 2. HOUSTON -7.5 (+1.9), 3. PHILADELPHIA -12 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +6.5 (+2.2), 2. SAN ANTONIO +1.5 (+1.8), 3. BROOKLYN +2 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -8 (+2.5), 2. TORONTO -1.5 (+1.8), 3. NEW ORLEANS -8 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-MIA OVER 222 (+1.7), 2. ATL-TOR OVER 241 (+1.5), 3. IND-MIL OVER 258.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-UTA UNDER 228 (-3.4), 2. LAL-SAS UNDER 230.5 (-0.5)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +6 (+1.2), 2. WASHINGTON +8 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -1.5 (+3.4), 2. PHOENIX -2 (+2.3), 3. PHILADELPHIA -12 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-PHX OVER 227 (+1.1), 2. LAL-SAS OVER 230.5 (+0.6), 3. CHA-MIA OVER 222 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-UTA UNDER 228 (-4.6), 2. ATL-TOR UNDER 241 (-3.5), 3. MEM-HOU UNDER 211.5 (-3.4)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) PHILADELPHIA at (502) DETROIT
* PHILADELPHIA is 16-5-1 ATS vs. Detroit since 2017
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(503) NEW ORLEANS at (504) WASHINGTON
* WASHINGTON is on a 6-1 ATS run hosting New Orleans but lost LT
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS
(505) CHARLOTTE at (506) MIAMI
* Home teams are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four of the CHA-MIA series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS
(507) ATLANTA at (508) TORONTO
* TORONTO is 5-2 ATS in the last seven vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS
(509) MEMPHIS at (510) HOUSTON
* Favorites are on a 4-1-1 ATS run in the MEM-HOU series
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS
(511) LA LAKERS at (512) SAN ANTONIO
* LA LAKERS are 10-4 ATS vs. San Antonio since 2019
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS
(513) INDIANA at (514) MILWAUKEE
* Over the total is 10-3 in the last 13 of the IND-MIL series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(515) NEW YORK at (516) UTAH
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the NYK-UTA series but lost last time
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(517) BROOKLYN at (518) PHOENIX
* Home teams are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the BRK-PHO series
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS
