Oscars Midseason Update:
Awards season is at the midway point and many awards do seem to be locked up, but many questions still remain. Usually at this point many of the top-tier awards are decided, but in a season with so many unpredictable twists and turns, Best Actor, Best Actress and even Best Picture Oscars are still up for grabs.
Best Picture
The last time I wrote an article for VSiN was right after the Golden Globes where The Brutalist took home Best Picture – Drama. It felt like a tidal wave crashing down onto award season and its name was The Brutalist. Fast forward almost one month and we have a completely different landscape.
Anora (-250) has taken back control of the race after snagging two key wins on one night by winning Best Picture at The Producers Guild & Best Director at The Directors Guild Awards for Sean Baker. This has flipped the odds from Anora being +300 to the -250 odds-on favorite. But, it took a major hit by failing to win at another major award show at the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) losing to Conclave in Best Picture.
The other contenders are The Brutalist (+350) & Conclave (+600). With Emila Perez (25/1) seemingly dropping out of the race due to its lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón’s tweets resurfacing with multiple disparaging remarks to Muslims, George Floyd and diversity at the Oscars. So, with that trifecta of topics, you can’t realistically think Emila Perez still stands a chance in the Best Picture race.
Looking at the other two contenders, I can realistically see a chance that Conclave steals this award. In the ranked choice voting system, Conclave can end up being in the No. 2 and No. 3 spot in many ballots which sometimes is enough. Many times it comes down to which film is most liked, but not necessarily loved. With a win for Best British Film & Best Film at the BAFTAs, this could catapult it to a Best Picture win.
The Brutalist had a strong showing at the BAFTA’s winning Best Director, Best Actor, Best Cinematography & Best Original Score. It continues to hang around and win at the splashy award shows. But, failing to win at the Producers and Directors Guild awards could be problematic. Since the co-existence of both guilds in 1994, only six films have lost best picture at the Oscars after securing both awards (Apollo 13, Saving Private Ryan, Brokeback Mountain, Gravity, La La land and 1917.)
My Prediction: Anora (-250)
Could Win: Conclave (+600)
Best Actor
This continues to be a two horse race but one of those horses seems to be stretching its lead. Adrian Brody continues to rack up wins as Timothée Chalamet continues his globetrotting awards campaign. But, Brody is looking hard to beat after winning at the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards amongst many others. I’m still holding out hope for Chalamet where a win at the all important Screen Actors Guild Awards could jump him back in the race. But right now it’s looking like Brody will win his second Oscar.
My Prediction: Adrian Brody (-230)
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet (+150)
Best Actress
We are buckled up for another nail-bitter of a race. Demi Moore was steamrolling through awards season. Ever since her win at the Golden Globes, she had taken over the narrative, and with an expected win at BAFTAs, it felt like the race was over. But in a striking turn of events Mikey Madison snatched victory out of the jaws of defeat and catapulted her way back into the race with her win for Best Actress. This brings all eyes on the upcoming Screen Actors Guild awards on February 23rd. If Moore wins, this race is as good as over. If Madison wins, the race will really come down to Oscars night on March 2nd. In full transparency, I have a Mikey Madison ticket at +300, so I’ll be locked in on Sunday.
My Prediction: Mikey Madison (+150)
Could Win: Demi Moore (-220)
Best Director
Another race that will put your mind in a pretzel is the Best Director race. Our two real contenders are Sean Baker and Brady Corbet. Corbet has won the splashiest awards at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards and BAFTAs. But Baker’s win at the Directors Guild carries an enormous weight with it. In the last 10 years, the Academy and the Directors Guild have matched nine times, one of the most predictive precursor awards.
Corbet walked away with the BAFTA for Best Director, but the BAFTAs are not always predictive when looking at who will win at the Oscars. In the last 10 years, BAFTA and the Oscars have matched six out of 10 times. Many times BAFTA will lean more international or towards films with a more international bend like The Brutalist, which tells a story that takes place in America, but across-the-board highlights the struggles of immigrants in America. I think Brady certainly has a shot at this award but I think Baker still has the edge.
My Prediction: Sean Baker (-140)
Could Win: Brady Corbet (+100)
Best Supporting Actor & Actress:
I’ll cover both these races here because they are for the most part done. Kieran Culkin has swept all the major awards shows and will most likely take home Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars. I don’t think he deserves it because I thought there were many other deserving actors, namely Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice, but sometimes the narrative takes hold and you can’t beat it.
As much as I wanted Ariana Grande to take home best Supporting Actress, it feels like Zoe Saldana has racked up too many awards to be denied. I do believe there is a bit of category fraud here, where Saldana is actually the lead of Emila Perez, but that’s a discussion for another day. You shouldn’t be betting this market at this point because both are double-digit favorites and there is no value betting into that.
Best Supporting Actor
My Prediction: Kieran Culkin (-2000)
Best Supporting Actress
My Prediction: Zoe Saldana (-1400)
Races Still Up For Grabs
Best Animated Feature – You can still bet into this market even at a more expensive price. The Wild Robot (-200) is the rightful favorite after winning Best Picture at the Annie Awards (Animation Awards) and honestly being a huge commercial success. Flow shook things up at the Golden Globes and Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl took home the prize at the BAFTAs but those are highly influenced by the body that voted for them. The general consensus points to The Wild Robot.
My Prediction: The Wild Robot (-200)
Best Editing – In one of the tightest races below the line we have three real contenders. Conclave (+135), Anora (+135) and The Brutalist (+300). Adding a wrinkle this year, the Editors Guild Awards take place after the Oscars. So we have to use precursors like BAFTA to forecast. Nick Emerson took home the award for Conclave but with the storyline that Sean Baker could win a possible four Oscars, including Best Editing, it would be a hard storyline to ignore. This race is wide open and I’m leaning Anora or The Brutalist, but with editing being highly correlated to who wins best picture I’m gonna go with Anora. It is important to note if Conclave wins here it has a real shot at upsetting the field in Best Picture.
My Prediction: Anora (+135)
Could Win: Conclave (+135) or The Brutalist (+300)
