Academy Awards Predictions:
We’ve made it to the 97th Academy Awards. After months of twists and turns, it’s finally time to make my final Academy Awards predictions for one of the most unpredictable Oscar seasons I have ever seen. I will have my full predictions below, along with my analysis for the last remaining races coming down to the wire. The ceremony will take place on Sunday March 2nd at 7 p.m. ET. I would recommend making your bets the Saturday before , as most of the markets will close midday on Sunday.
Best Picture
This has become a two-horse race between Anora and Conclave, with contenders like The Brutalist and Emilia Perez dropping along the way. Anora currently holds the edge with wins at the Producers Guild, Directors Guild & Writers Guild of America top honors. Those are strong precursors to an Oscar winning formula. But Conclave has won at the splashy award shows such as the BAFTAs and The Best Ensemble award at the Screen Actors Guild.
Full disclosure I already have an Anora bet at +300 it currently sits at -200. It really is going to come down to the wire, but I’m still riding with Anora. If you’re jumping in late and want value I wouldn’t mind getting in on Conclave (+225). With Anora’s history at the PGA, DGA & WGA, I think that will propel it past the competition.
My Bet: Anora (+300)
Will Win: Anora (-200)
Could Win: Conclave (+225)
Best Actor
This race has a heartbeat. I thought Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) was going to ride his way onto the Oscar stage with zero obstacles after capturing wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and BAFTAs. But the SAG awards voting body surprised everyone by voting for Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role. It might be a little too late for Chalamet, but sometimes you just have to win the right award at the right time.
Even with that being said, based on award season math, Brody still should win. But, if you look historically at the Oscars and SAG coronations, the math starts working the other direction. Going back to 2010 the Oscars and SAG have only not matched twice. That means that they have matched 13 out of 15 years. With that being said, I think Brody will be hard to beat, but I’m riding with Chalamet. The only narrative that could be the X-Factor is that Chalamet would become the youngest winner of Best Actor since… Adrien Brody when he won for The Pianist. Only in Hollywood right.
My Bet: Timothée Chalamet (+200)
Will Win: Timothée Chalamet (+150)
Could Win: Adrien Brody (-230)
Best Actress
With a slight bump at the BAFTAs, Demi Moore (The Substance) reclaimed her lead in the Best Actress race with a win at the SAGs and with voting closed for the Academy Awards, she’s looking quite strong heading into Oscar night. Her notable wins come from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG awards. Her only defeat happened at the hands of Mikey Madison (Anora) at the BAFTAs.
Moore is the frontrunner at (-250) and I think that is the correct price. There is a road for Mikey Madison to pull the upset though. This has happened before and rather recently when Glenn Close won the exact same awards Moore has won for her performance in The Wife, while also losing at the BAFTAs to Olivia Colman. Colman would go on to win at the Oscars. With Moore running on “she’s due” factor very similar to how Close ran her race, I still believe Moore wins due to the fact that The Substance is nominated for Best Picture and The Wife was not.
My Bet: Mikey Madison (+300)
Will Win: Demi Moore (-250)
Could Win: Mikey Madison (+165)
Best Director
Another race that will put your mind in a pretzel is the Best Director race. Our two real contenders are Sean Baker and Brady Corbet. Corbet has won the most splashy awards at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards and BAFTAs. But Baker’s win at the Directors Guild carries an enormous weight with it. In the last 10 years, the Academy and the Directors Guild have matched nine times, one of the most predictive precursor awards.
Corbet walked away with the BAFTA for Best Director, but the BAFTAs are not always predictive when looking at who will win at the Oscars. In the last 10 years, BAFTA and the Oscars have matched six out of 10 times. Many times BAFTA will lean more international or films with a more international bend like The Brutalist, which tells a story that takes place in America, but across-the-board highlights the struggles of immigrants in America. I think Brady certainly has a shot at this award, but I think Baker will win.
My Bet: Sean Baker (-165)
Will Win: Sean Baker (-165)
Could Win: Brady Corbet (+125)
Best Original Screenplay
This has become a very interesting category to watch. At this point, the race for Original Screenplay is usually done, but I think there is room for an upset brewing. The current favorite is Anora (-250) and based off of its win at the WGA and the history of the WGA predicting the screenplay winners, it makes sense. The WGA and the Oscars have matched on 6 of their last 10 occasions. Looking at the four times they did not, two times the WGA winner was nominated for an Oscar (2019 & 2022) and two times the Oscar winner was not nominated at the WGA (2015 & 2024).
The other contender that I have my eye on is actually third on the betting board, A Real Pain (+500). At this point in the race I don’t usually go past the first two listed names. A Real Pain written by Jesse Eisenberg has won at major award shows (BAFTA & The Independent Spirit Awards) where it went up against Anora in both cases. Both lost to The Substance at the Critics Choice Awards, but it is important to note that not many Critics make up the voting Academy. So, in my view, this market is mispriced. Anora has a good case to win Original Screenplay due to its WGA win where it went up against A Real Pain and won. As a long shot and value bet, however, I will take A Real Pain, even though I think Anora will likely squeak it out.
My Bet: A Real Pain (+500)
Will Win: Anora (-250)
Could Win: A Real Pain (+500)
Final Academy Awards Predictions
- Best Picture: Anora (-200)
- Best Director: Sean Baker (-165)
- Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet (+150)
- Best Actress: Demi Moore (-250)
- Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin (-3500)
- Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana (-2500)
- Best Original Screenplay: Anora (-250)
- Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave (-1000)
- Best Film Editing: Conclave (-165)
- Best Cinematography: The Brutalist (-340)
- Best Animated Feature: The Wild Robot (-340)
- Best International Feature: I’m Still Here (-200)
- Best Documentary: No Other Land (-165)
- Best Visual Effects: Dune Part 2 (-800)
- Best Production Design: Wicked (-400)
- Best Makeup & Hairstyling: The Substance (-1400)
- Best Costume Design: Wicked (-2000)
- Best Sound: Dune Part Two (-400)
- Best Original Score: The Brutalist (-400)
- Best Original Song: El Mal (Emilia Perez) (-310)
- Best Animated Short: Yuck! (+300)
- Best Documentary Short: I’m Ready Warden (+100)
- Best Live Action Short: A Lien (-110)
