Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
The Super Bowl of gluttony, the National Championship of Chomping, the annual tradition that is the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest comes your way from Coney Island on Friday, July 4. Nothing celebrates American independence quite like dipping hot dogs and buns into water and forcing as many of them down your throat as possible.
But, this compelling, and sometimes a little bit disgusting, event can be wagered on and there are some very interesting betting odds on the board. The women’s contest is at 10:45 a.m. ET, followed by the men’s contest at Noon ET. The men’s contest will be on ESPN2 and you can watch the women’s contest on ESPN+.
Let’s look at the past performances of these esteemed competitors and see if we can find some picks and predictions for this year’s contest.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds (DraftKings as of 11 a.m. PT, July 3)
- Joey Chestnut -1800
- Patrick Bertoletti +1000
- James Webb +2500
- Geoffrey Esper +2500
- Nick Wehry +3500
- Field +6500
Chestnut, the 16-time champion in the contest, did not participate last year, as a sponsorship disagreement kept him from entering the field. It was Bertoletti who won in Chestnut’s absence, but his 58 HDB (hot dogs and buns) were the lowest winning score since 2010 when Chestnut downed 54 HDB. Since that low point in 2010 for Chestnut, he’s eaten 62, 68, 69, 61, 62, 70, 72, 74, 71, 75, 76 (world record), 63 (distracted by a protester), and 62 HDB.
In other words, if Chestnut gets into the 60s again, nobody is beating him, hence the big price.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds Without Chestnut
- Bertoletti -110
- Webb +300
- Esper +300
- Field +1500
- Wehry +1500
- Max Stanford +5000
- Derek Hendrickson +7500
A much more interesting market here, basically a race for second place. Bertoletti’s 58 HDB were five more than anybody in the field last year, as Esper had 53, Webb had 52, and Wehry had 46.75. Longshots Stanford and Hendrickson had 32 and 30, respectively, so unless something has dramatically changed over the last 365 days, they don’t have much of a shot.
Esper is a multiple runner-up to Chestnut in this contest. Bertoletti was third in 2012 and then took a 10-year hiatus from the event before coming back with just 33.5 HDB in 2022. He won last year with a big step up, but I don’t know if that’s possible again. I think there’s decent value on Esper at +300. Esper is also +165 in a head-to-head matchup with Bertoletti.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Joey Chestnut Over/Under
71.5 or More Hot Dogs +105 // Less Than 71.5 -135
It seems as though the betting market is down a bit on Chestnut, who has not hit this number in his last two appearances. He did eat 57 HDB in five minutes last year in a non-sponsored event and gets 10 minutes in this contest. After being kept from the 2024 version of this event, he may be hungry to top his current world record of 76 HDB. I don’t think he gets there, but he’s surely motivated to put on a show and 71.5 or more might be the right side here.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Miki Sudo Over/Under
46.5 or More Hot Dogs -130 // Less Than 46.5 +100
There are no odds for the women’s winner, but Sudo would be an overwhelming favorite. She set a new world record last year with 51 HDB and she’s won every year since 2014 except for 2021, when she was pregnant and did not compete. In her victories, Sudo has only consumed 47 or more HDB twice, with last year and the COVID year of 2020 as the only ones. The 2020 event was held indoors, which had to help the competitors given the heat and humidity of the New York summer.
With temps creeping into the 80s, I like the Under on Sudo here and I think the 51 from last year was a clear outlier.
Other Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Picks
Geoffrey Esper -3.5 (-115) vs. Nick Wehry
Wehry, the husband of Sudo, was 6.25 HDB behind Esper last year and four HDB behind in 2023. He was six back in 2021. I seem to have a lot of predictions tied to Esper here, but I think he has a great shot at being second and getting into the 50s. If so, Wehry would likely have a tough time covering this spread. Esper is also even money in a head-to-head matchup with Webb, another bet worth considering.
Michelle Lesco (-115) vs. Domenica Dee
Dee, a social media influencer and competitive eater, ate 25 HDB in a qualifying event last month in Pleasanton, CA. Lesco is a veteran of this competition, though, and has crossed over 30 HDB in the past. She’s still the No. 9-ranked competitive eater in the world and the 41-year-old may not have too many of these left in her, so I’d expect a strong effort.
Also, from VSiN’s resident hot dog enthusiast, Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest analyst, and host of Money Moves Stormy Buonantony:
I’m rolling with Esper (+300) in the “Winner Without Chestnut” market. Also vibing the combined total Over 116.5 (+105) for Chestnut and Sudo. Based on the weather reports, it should be perfect hot dog eating weather.”
