NFL bookmakers offer their takes on the New York Jets: the hottest bet of the upcoming season.
When something is new, it’s usually exciting. Most people typically get a thrill from the feel of a new relationship, the look of a new vacation destination, and the smell of a new car, to offer a few examples. Few things excite the betting public more than an old quarterback moving to a new team, and this year’s example is Aaron Rodgers joining the New York Jets.
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Which team is winning the summer popularity contest on the NFL futures board? “The bettors like the Jets, of course,” DraftKings sportsbook director John Avello said. “But I didn’t like Aaron Rodgers last year. Is this the new, improved Rodgers? I don’t know.”
At 18-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, the Jets are the seventh choice on the DraftKings board behind the Chiefs (+600), Eagles (+650), Bills (+900), 49ers (10-1), Bengals (11-1) and Cowboys (14-1).
There are plenty of other ways to bet the Jets — to win the AFC East (+270), to win the conference (11-1), and to go Over the win total (9.5) — for those who are seeing green and getting excited about Rodgers’ new team.
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said it has been “no surprise” to see the public jumping on the Jets. However, the first wave of sharp action he took was Under the win total of 10, which he adjusted to 9.5 (Over -140).
“The sharp guys usually bet Under or pass,” Andrews said. “I’m taking the Jets seriously. Let’s face it, the defense was pretty good last year. I’m not sure the offensive line is all that good, but I think Rodgers can do enough.”
Rodgers, who turned 39 in December, did not do enough to get Green Bay to the playoffs last season. He threw 12 interceptions, his highest total since 2008, and the Packers finished 8-9. “Rodgers was (crappy) last year,” Avello said.
So when the crap hit the fan, Rodgers was gone. He emerged from a darkness retreat and announced a desire to play for the Jets, who last reached the playoffs in the 2010 season and have not won a title since Joe Namath’s guarantee paid off in Super Bowl III in 1969.
Rodgers’ lone Super Bowl win, which came with the Packers in February 2011, is a fading memory. Still, he is one of the league’s elite quarterbacks, and his presence will instill confidence in a young Jets team that finished with a six-game losing streak and a 7-10 record. The bright side, as Andrews said, was a defense that ranked fourth in the NFL in scoring.
It’s not crazy to think Rodgers can be the final piece to the Jets’ puzzle. Tom Brady was exactly what the Buccaneers needed when he moved from New England to Tampa Bay as a free agent in 2020.
At the time, many Las Vegas bookmakers, including John Murray at the Westgate SuperBook, laughed and mocked the public for enthusiastically betting on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl before Brady’s first season with a new team.
“We didn’t have an appreciation for how good that team was around Brady,” Murray said. “We definitely underestimated how bad the NFC South was, but the Buccaneers didn’t win the division, and it was an incredible run in the playoffs.”
A year after going 7-9 with Jameis Winston at quarterback in 2019, Tampa Bay made the playoffs as a wild-card team, and Brady did win his seventh Super Bowl, going through Rodgers in Green Bay along the way.
“It’s not going to be the same with Rodgers in the AFC East because that’s a really good division,” Murray said. “I don’t like the Jets. I never like those teams that are popular with everybody. I also think that Rodgers just looked lousy last year.”
While there is some symmetry with Brady and Rodgers, the obvious difference is Brady’s postseason track record is unmatched, and Rodgers’ playoff performances have been mostly underwhelming in recent years.
The link between Rodgers and Brett Favre, another one-time Super Bowl winner with the Packers, is more relevant. After his relationship with Green Bay management deteriorated in 2008, Favre was traded to the Jets. He spent one year in New York, and the team missed the playoffs with a 9-7 record. Favre finished the season with 22 touchdown passes and 22 interceptions and was released in 2009 before playing his final two years for the Vikings.
Rodgers is not going to be beating up on the Bears anymore. Take a deep dive into the schedule, and it appears the wiseguys have the right idea by initially betting the Jets’ win total Under 10.
Based on the opponents’ winning percentage of .545 last season (a combined record of 155-129-3), the Jets draw the NFL’s sixth-toughest schedule. That’s not always the most accurate way to grade strength of schedule, so also consider the number of playoff teams from last season (nine) on this 17-game schedule and some other factors.
In the first six weeks, Rodgers and the Jets will face a firing line of quality quarterbacks — Buffalo’s Josh Allen (Week 1), Dallas’ Dak Prescott, New England’s Mac Jones, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, Denver’s Russell Wilson and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts.
The Jets also have two especially challenging short-week scenarios on the schedule. After hosting the Bills and Chargers on Monday nights in Weeks 1 and 9, the Jets hit the road to play the Cowboys and Raiders in Weeks 2 and 10, respectively.
Rodgers is not the best quarterback in his new division — Allen has earned that status — and the top two quarterbacks in the AFC are Mahomes and the Bengals’ Joe Burrow.
“It’s a big leap the Jets are being asked to make, and the AFC is so much better than the NFC,” Murray said. “The Bills are kind of a forgotten team. Going into the playoffs, I think Buffalo was the highest power-rated team in the league. Everyone is talking about the Chiefs, Bengals and Jets. I think it’s interesting how under the radar the Bills are now.”
The Jets went 2-4 in division games last season, and it requires a leap of faith to predict they will be any better than 3-3 this season. Don’t forget the Patriots own a 14-game winning streak against the Jets.
Rodgers appears rejuvenated in New York, where fans and media are celebrating his arrival and dreaming of a postseason paradise. This is the honeymoon phase.
Sharp money says the Jets will need Rodgers at his MVP-level best to win nine or 10 games and reach the playoffs, which seems the best-case scenario. The reality is your Super Bowl futures bet is better off in the hands of Mahomes, Allen or Burrow.
