2023 NFL season win total tiers
Last year’s season win total tiers article started with an interesting nugget. There have only been two seasons since 2002 in which a team did not go from worst to first in the division. The 2022 season held to that trend, as the Jacksonville Jaguars went from 3-14 in the AFC South to a 9-8 division champ.
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While it is hard to see any of last season’s basement dwellers pulling off that same feat this season, it is not hard to expect teams to overperform or underperform relative to their season win total expectations. Last season, 24 of the league’s 32 teams were +/- 1.5 wins against the season win total line, and 20 of those 24 teams were +/- 2.5 wins based on the preseason line.
Just about every sportsbook offers alternate season win total odds, and those may be something to check into as you are preparing for the year and looking at teams that you like to go over or under their win total odds.
Here is an opinion on all 32 teams and their season win totals, ranging from ones that I love to ones that I wouldn’t bet with anybody else’s money, not even my worst enemy.
Odds are from DraftKings, but be sure to shop around for the best lines.
NFL Win Totals I Love
Chicago Bears Under 7.5 (+110): Maybe the Bears are the team to take advantage of what should be a weaker NFC North Division, but this defense was objectively awful, and over 150 carries from Justin Fields creates a major injury risk. This was the league’s worst defense in EPA/play by a large margin. The Bears were dead last in third-down defense and in the bottom-five in red zone defense. Chicago gave up over 27 points per game and lacks depth all over the field. The Bears will play seven road games in 11 weeks prior to their Week 13 bye, so the schedule may not be all that daunting by opponent, but it is a grind for a shallow roster.
Denver Broncos Over 8.5 (-110): Is Russ going to cook or is Russ cooked? The Wilson conundrum may be the biggest question mark in the entire NFL. It’s clear that the Broncos have upgraded with head coach Sean Payton, and this was a team absurdly ravaged by injuries last season. According to Football Outsiders, Denver had the most adjusted games lost due to injury last season with the second-most on offense and the fifth-most on defense. The Broncos still had a top-10 defense by EPA/play. They were 30th in third-down conversion rate over expected, which may simply have come down to Nathaniel Hackett. I’ll drink the Kool-Aid and buy in with a deeply-talented roster and a QB with a big track record when not playing for an overwhelmed head coach.
Jacksonville Jaguars Over 9.5 (-135): The class of the AFC South was one of the unluckiest teams in the league during a 3-7 start, but as things stabilized, the Jaguars went 6-1 after the bye week and even won a playoff game for the first time since 2017 with a huge second-half comeback. Their outstanding head coach Doug Pederson helped turn the Jags around with a top 10 ranking in EPA/play on offense and a solid 12th in EPA/play on defense, including the sixth-ranked defense by that metric after the bye week. QB Trevor Lawrence cut his interception total by more than half and finished in the top 10 in MVP voting. Add Calvin Ridley to the mix and another year with the playbooks on both sides of the ball, and this is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
New York Giants Over 7.5 (+100): Imagine the coaching chops that it takes to turn a group led by Daniel Jones into a top-10 offense. That’s precisely what Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka did with the Giants, who finished ninth in EPA/play last season. Sure, the full body of work wasn’t all that pretty, as the Giants were outscored and outgained on the season, both overall and by yards per play. They won a bunch of close games, and Jones had four fourth-quarter comebacks and five game-winning drives, but a huge coaching upgrade can help, and the front office is also much stronger. This was a league-average pass defense that struggled against the run, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Giants have better overall stats in Year 2 and 8-9 or 9-8 seem to be the likeliest outcomes.
NFL Win Totals I Like
Buffalo Bills Over 10.5 (-140): The schedule is tough, and the division has improved, but the Bills are still the class of the AFC East until proven otherwise. This was the second-best offense in EPA/play, and Josh Allen graded as a top-five quarterback in several metrics, including EPA + CPOE composite (completion percentage above expected), Success Rate. I would expect Allen’s full-season numbers to be even stronger without the early-season adjustment to losing Brian Daboll. Buffalo was 31st in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Games Lost metric on defense, missing Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Von Miller for significant portions of the season. Going 10-7 feels like the floor for this team.
Dallas Cowboys Over 9.5 (-155): The juice is a little stiff on this one, but the Cowboys look poised to be a legitimate contender in the NFC again. Last year’s group was second in EPA/play on defense with some huge playmakers on that side of the ball. Dak Prescott was a top-10 quarterback by several advanced metrics, including adjusted EPA/play and overall EPA/play. There aren’t any apparent weaknesses on the roster, and Brandin Cooks is a quality possession receiver to add to Prescott’s cache of weapons. It’s the “-155” that makes me like it and not love it.
Green Bay Packers Under 7.5 (-115): The Packers have officially passed the torch to Jordan Love, who is a giant unknown heading into his third season in the league. Love has gotten very few reps with 83 pass attempts and only one start to this point. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs might be bona fide NFL receivers, but the sample size under Aaron Rodgers doesn’t seem like a good barometer for what we’ll see with Love at the helm. The defense also ranked 27th in EPA/play last season, and a rise in turnovers on offense seems like a safe bet. This is a rebuilding year on the fly for Green Bay. The organization may have a choice between investing more in Love or giving a guy like Drake Maye a chance with a clean slate in 2024.
Indianapolis Colts Over 6.5 (-135): To say that things went off the rails for the Colts last season is an understatement. Jeff Saturday went from the high school sidelines to the NFL and his team went 1-7 over the final eight games. Things didn’t even look all that good under Frank Reich with a 3-5-1 start and Matt Ryan at the helm. This season, the Colts wipe the slate clean with new head coach Shane Steichen and a complete turnover at the QB position by adding Gardner Minshew and Anthony Richardson. This was a middle-of-the-pack defense by EPA/play last season, despite the league’s highest red-zone conversion rate against, and the offense looks way more promising with a fresh start in what is still a fairly weak division.
Los Angeles Chargers Under 9.5 (-110): Justin Herbert does some special things, and new OC Kellen Moore could unlock his full potential. Yet, this is still an injury-prone roster that struggled to create explosive plays on offense and prevent them on defense. Despite gaining over 6,000 yards of offense, the Chargers were outgained by 0.6 yards per play. They gave up over a full yard per reception more than they gained, as Herbert and the offense was held to just 9.9 yards per catch. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both missing time was a factor, but we have no reason to expect them to stay intact for a full season. Is Brandon Staley the right man for the job? This year’s tough schedule will likely answer that question.
Miami Dolphins Over 9.5 (+100): Because of how the season ended, it is easy to forget that the Dolphins were 8-3 over their first 11 games before losing three straight road games to the 49ers, Chargers and Bills. The health of Tua Tagovailoa is a huge part of the equation here after the images of him suffering multiple concussions became seared into the minds of football fans and bettors. By EPA + CPOE composite, Tua was second to some guy named Patrick Mahomes last season and also second in Adjusted EPA/play. The defense struggled, but Jalen Ramsey comes in to pair with standout Xavier Howard and force more turnovers, as Miami went 9-8 with a -7 TO differential last season.
Pittsburgh Steelers Under 8.5 (+115): Yes, Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as the head coach of the Steelers, and for this to cash, that streak would need to end. However, the Steelers needed four straight wins over the Panthers, Raiders, Ravens, and Browns to get there, and up until the Cleveland game, they only had one win by more than eight points. The offense under Matt Canada lacked creativity again, as Pittsburgh was one of six teams with fewer than five yards per play. Those other teams combined for 24 wins, including eight from the Commanders. It was a tale of two halves of the season, and Kenny Pickett did play well down the stretch, plus the Steelers have a pretty easy schedule relatively speaking. However, the bye week comes early (Week 6), and this is a top-heavy roster that had the fewest adjusted games lost last season, even with TJ Watt’s injury.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 6.5 (-130): We need a tagline for the teams in the running for Caleb Williams. “Be Crappy for Caleb?” “Capitulate for Caleb?” Whatever it is, that should be the Bucs’ mission statement for this season. Playing Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask is a good start. Even with Tom Brady riding off into the sunset, the Bucs went 8-9 last season and got outscored by 35 points. Seven of their eight wins came against teams that missed the playoffs, and their eight wins were by a combined total of 50 points. That was with a decent roster and the GOAT at QB. What will this team look like with a lesser roster and a bad quarterback? There is a tremendous incentive to be as bad as possible, and Tampa Bay should embrace that.
NFL Win Totals I’m Not Sure About
Arizona Cardinals 4.5 (-120/100): New head coach Jonathan Gannon should be an overall upgrade from Kliff Kingsbury, but the uncertainty with Kyler Murray leaves Colt McCoy, David Blough, Jeff Driskel, and Clayton Tune to fight for snaps. The earliest Murray could return is September, but a more likely target is around the midpoint of the season. In the first eight weeks, the only team with a losing record on the schedule is the Rams, who went 5-12 and missed Matthew Stafford most of the season. There’s a real possibility that the Cardinals don’t have a win by the midpoint of the season and would have to chase down this entire win total with Murray back from injury.
Atlanta Falcons 8.5 (110/-130): Even with seven wins last season, it feels like it would take a decent leap from the Falcons to get to nine wins. They ranked 29th in EPA/play on defense last season and gave up points on 43.5% of opponents’ possessions. If Desmond Ridder can take a huge step forward, the Falcons did have a top-five rushing attack last season and fell slightly on the wrong side of luck in close games, going 4-7 in games decided by six or fewer points. The defensive personnel has improved with Calais Campbell, Jeff Okudah, and Jessie Bates III, so it all comes down to Ridder, and he’s a big wild card.
Carolina Panthers 7.5 (-135/115): The optimistic take is to say that this team won seven games last season with six starts from Baker Mayfield, six from Sam Darnold, and five from P.J. Walker. The pessimistic take is to say that, while Bryce Young should be better than those three guys, the undersized QB goes to a team where everybody will be learning a new offense, and there are bound to be growing pains. By EPA/play, Carolina was 17th defensively but hung in there all things considered. Finding an extra win doesn’t seem that hard on the surface, but first-year QBs don’t always hit immediately.
Cleveland Browns 9.5 (120/-135): Cleveland’s floor is probably that of a 7-10 team, which is what happened last season, as the Browns committed to Jacoby Brissett for 11 weeks and then sent out Deshaun Watson to shake off two years worth of rust. The ceiling is high and so is the floor, but expecting Watson to be a top-10 quarterback ranges from mildly optimistic to insane, depending on who you talk to. This could be a team good enough to threaten the Bengals in the AFC North, but an average Watson could cause Cleveland to struggle to get to 10 wins. We’re also assuming the defense is better under Jim Schwartz, but that isn’t a given either.
Detroit Lions 9.5 (-120/100): Having the Lions go into a season with high expectations is a foreign concept, but Detroit was one of the hottest teams in the league and one that nobody wanted to play in the postseason. Fortunately for NFC hopefuls, the Lions fell just short, but hotshot offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is back to call plays for an offense that was sixth in EPA/play for the season and second from Week 10-18. The defense has a lot of work to do to catch up to the offense after finishing 31st in EPA/play. This team is fun, but the hype may ultimately be unwarranted.
Houston Texans 6.5 (110/-130): There seems to be a surprising amount of optimism about a team that went 3-13-1 and will roll out a rookie quarterback, a first-year head coach, and a first-time offensive coordinator in 2023. CJ Stroud should be an immediate upgrade from Davis Mills, and DeMeco Ryans may very well be the same over Lovie Smith. OC Bobby Slowik is a branch of the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree and has ample coaching experience on both sides of the ball. The schedule is weak, and the roster doesn’t seem that bad, but a four-win upgrade after being outgained by a full yard per play last season seems like a tall order, especially after only finishing -1 in turnover margin.
Kansas City Chiefs 11.5 (-140/120): It seems easy to just pencil the Chiefs in for 12 wins. They’ve won at least that many games every regular season during the Patrick Mahomes era, and they will continue to have an elite offense with an average or better defense as one of the league’s premier organizations with one of the game’s top head coaches. OC Eric Bieniemy moved on to Washington in an effort to try and show teams looking for a head coach that his success isn’t all about being Andy Reid’s right-hand man and the core group is another year older, including Travis Kelce, who turns 34 during Week 5. Expecting anything other than dominance may be a fool’s errand, but the schedule is tricky, a home game is lost to the first NFL game in Germany, and the AFC West is a strong division.
Minnesota Vikings 8.5 (-130/110): After maybe the most fraudulent 13-4 season ever, the betting markets expect massive regression from the Vikings. Minnesota’s Expected Win-Loss by point differential (-3) was 8.4-8.6, so this was a .500 team that went 9-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer…until losing 31-24 to the Giants during Wild Card Weekend. The Vikings were outgained by 0.4 yards per play, finished -2 in TO margin, and finished 27th in points per drive against, yet won the NFC North by four games. While the numbers suggest major setbacks, and the offense will look different without Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen, this is still a solid roster in a marginal division.
New Orleans Saints 9.5 (105/-125): I tend to agree with the juice being on the side of the under here, but there are some really encouraging signs for the Saints. They were -11 in turnover margin, which should regress toward the mean this season. Despite that, they were just -15 in point differential and effectively a .500 team by Expected Win-Loss. They also outgained opponents by 0.6 yards per play. The defense was 10th by EPA/play and eighth in points per drive allowed. But, the turnovers, and lack thereof on defense, were too much to overcome. Derek Carr isn’t as big of an upgrade as some people think, but he should take better care of the ball in the league’s weakest division, so the Saints have a chance to overachieve.
Philadelphia Eagles 11.5 (-110/-110): The Eagles are poised to run it back with most of the roster from last year’s NFC Championship squad. The 2022 schedule was not particularly taxing, and the Eagles ran out to a 13-1 start before Jalen Hurts got injured and missed a couple of games that went in the loss column. This year’s schedule ramps up quite a bit in degree of difficulty, and Hurts, whose ability to be a starter was questioned prior to last season, will be tested a whole lot more. From a personnel standpoint, there is no reason to believe that this team falls back a lot, but the environment in which the Eagles are playing is much stronger.
Seattle Seahawks 8.5 (-130/110): This offense is must-see TV with explosive wide receivers and a resurrected Geno Smith, but the defensive shortcomings are hard to ignore. The Seahawks gave up at least 21 points in 12 of 17 games and went 4-8 in those games. Outscoring the opposition throughout the season is certainly possible with Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and now Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but that was the hope last season and the Seahawks went 3-6 over their final nine games. The schedule is tough, and so is a Week 5 bye on a roster that has limited margin for error in case of injury after largely staying healthy last year and finishing 9-8.
Tennessee Titans 7.5 (110/-130): The Titans started 7-3 last season before everything fell apart and the team rattled off seven straight losses to end the campaign, including some hideous starts from Malik Willis. Derrick Henry has led the NFL in rush attempts in three of the last four seasons, and he had 219 in eight games in 2021 before getting sidelined with a foot injury. Mike Vrabel is a good head coach. Last year’s defense did a complete 180 after being one of the worst in the league the year prior. But even in a weak division, Ryan Tannehill is at best an average QB, and the team still needs to find out about Willis and to take a look at Will Levis. This team reeks of one with no clear direction and a lot of duct tape to patch holes instead of just buying a new boat.
Washington Commanders 6.5 (-120/100): I low-key like this roster. Eric Bieniemy should represent a big upgrade over Scott Turner as the offensive play-caller, but all the magic 8-balls, crystal balls, and fortune tellers in the world couldn’t tell you what to expect from Sam Howell. If Jacoby Brissett ends up taking over, the Commanders probably end up in the 7-9 win range, but if they are committed to Howell, the floor is likely lower than that. It would be ironic to see Washington “Drop for Drake” and take another North Carolina Tar Heel, albeit one in the first round instead of the fifth. This was actually a top-five defense by EPA/play and Chase Young is back, so Ron Rivera’s squad will be good on that side of the ball again. The offense, however, remains a major mystery.
NFL Win Totals I Wouldn’t Bet With Your Money
Baltimore Ravens 9.5 (-150/120): The Ravens have won at least 10 games in nine of John Harbaugh’s 15 seasons at the helm and four of the last five seasons. Lamar Jackson took over in 2018 and went 6-1 as a starter over seven games and led the team to a 10-6 record that season. The only season in which the Ravens failed to get to double digits with Jackson on the roster came in 2021, when the team started 8-3 but lost six straight games, along with Jackson to injury, to finish out the year. Jackson got his bag, but his lingering health concerns make this virtually impossible to bet, especially with -150 juice on the optimistic side.
Cincinnati Bengals 11.5 (110/-130): Every starting quarterback is important to some degree, but for teams with double-digit win totals, the difference between the starter and the backup is massive. That certainly describes the Bengals with Joe Burrow. While the Bengals did a fair job of upgrading the offensive line last season, Burrow was sacked 41 times and has been sacked 92 times in the last two regular seasons, plus 29 more times in the playoffs. With limited margin for error at 12-5 or better, the under seems like the only option. However, this might be the best team in the NFL.
Las Vegas Raiders 7.5 (155/-180): With mixed messages on the Jimmy Garoppolo situation, this is a really tough win total to bet into, though there is heavy juice on the under with concerns that he won’t be ready for the start of the season. Even though Tom Brady is now a part-owner of the Raiders, he swears he’s retired for good, so it could be the Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell show for the Silver & Black until Jimmy G is ready to go. This was one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season by EPA/play, and the offense is currently a mystery. The Raiders also play three sets of back-to-back road games, with the second game of each in the Eastern Time Zone.
Los Angeles Rams 6.5 (-110/-110): The Rams had a complete throwaway season in 2022, as they played with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp for large chunks of the year and got over 200 pass attempts from the trio of Baker Mayfield, John Wolford, and Bryce Perkins. This roster looks nothing like the one that won Super Bowl LVI about 18 months ago, but Sean McVay is still one of the league’s preeminent football minds and the 35-year-old Stafford may have something left in the tank. On the other hand, with ongoing neck and back issues now exacerbated by concussions, plus a questionable commitment from McVay and all-time great Aaron Donald who were both pondering retirement, this season could go any number of ways for the Rams.
New England Patriots 7.5 (+105/-125): Last season was messy in Foxboro, as the Patriots failed to answer major questions about Mac Jones, got a lift from Bailey Zappe, and through it all, managed to avoid completely falling apart. In fact, the Patriots actually fell on the wrong side of variance a little bit, going 8-9 despite a +17 point differential. Football genius Bill Belichick still fielded an elite defense that finished third in EPA/play allowed and fourth in yards per play. Modest upgrades dot the roster for 2023, but the most important position on the field is still up in the air.
New York Jets 9.5 (-130/110): The Jets finally got their quarterback with the trade for Aaron Rodgers, but he’ll turn 40 in December after spending the offseason wondering if he wanted to play football anymore or not. That’s not to say he won’t buy in with his new team, but the skills looked to be in decline last season, and he was merely average at best, depending on the stat and source you use. He’ll have a good offensive line, an elite receiver in Garrett Wilson, and the help of a top-five defense, so the ceiling is high, but that’s priced into this number. The Jets also had the fewest adjusted games lost due to injury on defense last season.
San Francisco 49ers 10.5 (-120/100): Brock Purdy went from Mr. Irrelevant to Mr. Super Relevant last year during San Francisco’s stellar 13-4 run, but he was hurt early in the NFC Championship game, and the 49ers’ hopes and dreams of playing in the Super Bowl went to the locker room with him. The 49ers were as dominant of a team as any during the regular season, outscoring the opposition by 173 points and outgaining them by 0.9 yards per play. San Francisco had the league’s top defense in several metrics, including points per drive, interceptions, and EPA/play by a wide margin. The floor is really high for this team, but with Purdy off a major injury and a performance nobody expected in seven starts (not to mention the Trey Lance questions), the ceiling may not be quite that high.
