2025 NFL Pre-Bye-Week Systems and Team Trends:
It feels like I am thinking the same thing every year at the end of September. I can’t believe we are this far into the NFL season already! How far? We are already at the point of having to discuss bye weeks on the schedule. In fact, this week marks the first time that four specific teams will be playing their pre-bye week games, as NFL byes officially begin next week, with Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh being the first group to receive the week off. Two of those teams will be playing their pre-bye week games on the road, including the Packers, who play the Sunday night contest. One of them, the Steelers, are overseas in Dublin to square off with Minnesota. Only Atlanta is at home.
For those of you who have been with VSiN since its inception, you know that I have preached this subject and repeated it annually for readers. Over the years that I’ve spent studying NFL data, I’ve found that one of the most important scheduling situations involves the weeks before and after a team’s bye week. They are important because they affect routines, momentum, and player availability for injury. Historically, some franchises and coaches have been very effective in dealing with bye weeks, while others have not. Furthermore, some teams have seen their performance levels vary significantly when entering the bye week compared to when they come out. As such, the various bye week scenarios can make for great wagering opportunities.
Since the league adopted a 17-game schedule a few years ago, the duration of weeks with teams having byes has become more spread out. In fact, for 2025, there are teams with pre-bye week games in the first weekend of October, and there are teams with pre-bye week games in the first week of December, all the way into Week 14. Arguments abound about the merits of the point in time of the season in which each team gets their bye week. Some teams don’t want a bye when they are playing well. It can also be said that, theoretically, the further into a season, the more the bye would be appreciated by coaches and players. Keep all of this in mind as you analyze each team’s specific situation.
In this week’s piece, I will be addressing the PRE-BYE WEEK TRENDS and SYSTEMS. There will be a follow-up piece to this in two weeks, unveiling the POST-BYE WEEK TRENDS & SYSTEMS. Since these bye weeks span over the next two months and the trends will apply at various times throughout that period, I recommend saving this piece for your NFL handicapping library, as well as the one in two weeks. HOWEVER, AGAIN FOR 2025, we will be repeating this information weekly, specifically the qualifying trends and systems for that week, in our popular NFL ANALYTICS REPORTS.
I always like to remind readers as to why I believe the bye week has such an impact in the NFL. Every April brings excitement when the NFL schedule gets announced. Analysts break down all the big matchups, the quirks for each team, and seemingly every little intricacy in the 18-week slate. There are always various situations that can wreak havoc. The NFL is a routine-laden league, and anything that can break that routine for a team can offer bettors an opportunity. Whether it’s long stretches of road or home games, contests scheduled on days other than Sundays, night games versus Sunday afternoons, etc, these scheduling “landmines” can be used to find betting value if you understand the consequences of such events. However, if there is one scheduling situation that I find to be most influential, it is the BYE WEEK. Each team gets one throughout their 18-week schedule, and where it is placed and how the teams react in and out of that bye week can often make the difference of one or two wins. That, of course, can affect whether or not a team makes the playoffs. Clearly, the three-week period involving a team’s bye week (in, off, out) is highly impactful.
This article will cover pre-bye week trends for all 32 teams. Again, note that those involving the Falcons, Bears, Packers, and Steelers will be in play for this week’s games.
Before we go team-by-team, here are five league-wide pre-bye week systems that you’ll want to take advantage of over the next couple of months:
Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 54-24-1 ATS since 2013, 69.2%, +27.6 Units, 35.4% ROI, Grade 70)
2025 Plays: 10/19 LAS VEGAS, 10/26 PHILADELPHIA, 10/26 TAMPA BAY, 11/9 NEW ORLEANS, 11/16 DENVER
Pre-bye week system #2:
Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 36-15-2 since 2013, 70.6%, +19.5 Units, 38.2% ROI, Grade 70)
2025 Plays: UNDER the total in 10/19 LAS VEGAS-Kansas City, 10/26 PHILADELPHIA-NY Giants, 10/26 TAMPA BAY-New Orleans, 11/9 NEW ORLEANS-Carolina, 11/16 DENVER-Kansas City
Pre-bye week system #3
Play on favorites of 7 points or more heading into their bye week. (Record: 78-6 SU and 56-26-2 ATS since 2002, 68.3%, +27.4 Units, 33.4% ROI, Grade 72)
Potential 2025 Plays: 10/5 MINNESOTA?, 10/12 BALTIMORE?, 10/20 DETROIT?, 10/20 SEATTLE?, 10/26 TAMPA BAY?, 10/26 PHILADELPHIA?, 11/2 CINCINNATI?, 11/16 WASHINGTON?, 11/30 SAN FRANCISCO,
Pre-bye week system #4
Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 74-39-2 ATS since 2010, 65.5%, +31.1 Units, 27.5% ROI, Grade 68)
2025 Plays: 10/26 PHILADELPHIA, 11/2 CINCINNATI, 11/2 TENNESSEE, 11/3 DALLAS, 11/16 DENVER, 11/30 CAROLINA, 12/1 NEW ENGLAND
Pre-bye week system #5
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 35-22-3 ATS since 2015, 61.4%, +10.8 Units, 18.9% ROI, Grade 62)
Potential 2025 Plays: 9/28 ATLANTA, 10/19 ARIZONA?, 11/2 TENNESSEE?, 11/3 DALLAS?, 11/16 DENVER?, 11/30 CAROLINA?
Pre-bye week system #6
Play on any road team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 26-18 SU and 29-13-2 ATS since ’96, 69%, +14.7 Units, 35% ROI, Grade 67)
2025 Plays: 10/13 BUFFALO, 12/1 NY GIANTS
Pre-bye week system #7
Play against any home team in the +4.5 to -4.5 line range heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS since 1996, 83.3%, +11.7 Units, 65% ROI, Grade 65)
2025 Potential Plays: 10/20 AGAINST DETROIT?, 10/20 AGAINST SEATTLE?, 11/3 AGAINST DALLAS?, 12/1 AGAINST NEW ENGLAND?
Pre-bye week system #8
Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 28-7-1 SU and 24-11-1 ATS since 2009, 68.6%, +11.9 Units, 34% ROI, Grade 67)
2025 Potential Plays: 9/28 CHICAGO, 9/28 PITTSBURGH?, 10/5 MINNESOTA?, 10/13 BUFFALO?, 10/19 LA RAMS?, 11/16 WASHINGTON?, 11/30 SAN FRANCISCO
Pre-bye week system #9
Play against any teams heading into their bye week and playing as underdogs of more than 7 points (Record: 42-7 SU and 34-14-1 ATS since 2008, 70.8%, +18.6 Units, 38.8% ROI, Grade 70)
Potential 2025 Plays: 10/5 HOUSTON?, 10/19 LAS VEGAS?, 10/26 CLEVELAND?, 10/26 NY JETS?, 11/2 TENNESSEE?, 11/9 NEW ORLEANS?, 11/16 MIAMI?, 11/30 CAROLINA?, 12/1 NY GIANTS?
Pre-bye week system #10
Play on any teams heading into their bye week and playing as favorites in an overseas neutral field contest (Record: 15-2-1 SU and 13-5 ATS since 2008, 72.2%, +7.5 Units, 41.7% ROI, Grade 65)
Potential 2025 Plays: 9/28 PITTSBURGH?, 10/5 MINNESOTA?, 10/19 LA RAMS?, 11/9 INDIANAPOLIS?, 11/16 WASHINGTON?
* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Arizona Cardinals Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/19 vs. Green Bay Packers
· Arizona is on a 9-3 ATS surge in pre-bye week games
· The Cardinals are on a 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS streak in pre-bye week games at home
Atlanta Falcons Pre-Bye Week Game – 9/28 vs. Washington Commanders
· Atlanta has gone 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 pre-bye week games overall
· The Falcons are on a 1-5-1 ATS skid in pre-bye week home games
Baltimore Ravens Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/12 vs. Los Angeles Rams
· Baltimore is just 5-6 SU and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 pre-bye week home games
· The Ravens are on 8-4 Under the total run in pre-bye week games
Buffalo Bills Pre-Bye Week Game – Mon 10/13 at Atlanta Falcons
· Buffalo is on a run of 14-4 Over the total in pre-bye week games
· The Bills have lost eight straight pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes while going 2-5-1 ATS. They have also gone Over the total in six straight games while allowing 32.2 PPG in that scenario
Carolina Panthers Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/30 vs. Los Angeles Rams
· The Panthers are on a stretch of 9-3 ATS in pre-bye week games, including a win over the Giants last year in London
· Carolina is on a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS streak in home pre-bye week games, scoring 30.8 PPG
Chicago Bears Pre-Bye Week Game – 9/28 at Las Vegas Raiders
· Chicago has been one of the league’s worst long run teams in terms of pre-bye week performance, 9-17 SU and 11-15 ATS since 1999, however, they have won two straight
· The Bears are on a 9-4 Over the total surge in pre-bye week games since ‘12
Cincinnati Bengals Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/2 vs. Chicago Bears
· Cincinnati has gone 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 pre-bye week games at home
· The Bengals are on a 7-2 Over the total surge in pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes
Cleveland Browns Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/26 at New England Patriots
· Cleveland is on a 3-11 SU and ATS slide in pre-bye week games, including 0-3 SU and ATS in road/neutral games
· The Browns are 15-7-1 Under the total in pre-bye week games since ‘02
Dallas Cowboys Pre-Bye Week Game – Mon 11/3 vs. Arizona Cardinals
· Dallas went 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS under former head coach Mike McCarthy following a 3-8 ATS skid prior
· The Cowboys are 6-1 Over the total in their last 7 pre-bye week games versus non-divisional NFC foes
Denver Broncos Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/16 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
· Denver is 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 pre-bye week games overall
· Outright winners are on an 18-game ATS winning streak in Denver pre-bye week home games
Detroit Lions Pre-Bye Week Game – Mon 10/20 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
· Detroit is on 11-3 Over the total surge in pre-bye week home games
· Including the last two years, the Lions have only played three MNF pre-bye week games since 1995, going 3-0 SU and ATS
Green Bay Packers Pre-Bye Week Game – 9/28 at Dallas Cowboys
· The Packers have lost back-to-back pre-bye week games after going 23-8 prior
· Green Bay is on a 2-10 ATS skid in pre-bye week road games, while also going 9-2-1 Over the total
Houston Texans Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/5 at Baltimore Ravens
· Houston boasts a 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS record in pre-bye week games since its inception in 2002
· Houston has gone 8-1-1 Under the total in its last 10 pre-bye week games, combined score 35.0 PPG
Indianapolis Colts Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/9 vs. Atlanta Falcons (Munich)
· Indianapolis is on a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS run in pre-bye week games overall
· The Colts have gone 16-3-1 ATS in pre-bye week road/neutral games since 1993, but did fail to cover as 2.5-point road favorite at New England last year
Jacksonville Jaguars Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/19 vs. Los Angeles Rams (London)
· The Jaguars have lost five straight pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes SU and ATS while being outscored 38-10.8 on average!
· Jacksonville is on a 3-0 Under the total surge in pre-bye week games overseas, scoring 14.7 PPG
Kansas City Chiefs Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/2 at Buffalo Bills
· Kansas City has won its last 6 pre-bye week games, going 5-1 ATS
· The Chiefs are on a 5-12 SU and 7-8-2 ATS skid as a pre-bye week underdogs
Los Angeles Chargers Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/16 at Jacksonville Jaguars
· The Chargers are just 2-9 SU and 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 pre-bye week games
· The Chargers are 9-3 Under the total in their last 12 pre-bye week games
Los Angeles Rams Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/19 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
· The Rams have gone Under the total in nine of their last 10 pre-bye week games, including seven straight road/neutral contests
· The Rams are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes
Las Vegas Raiders Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/19 at Kansas City Chiefs
· The Raiders are on a 4-4 SU and 5-2-1 ATS run in pre-bye week road games vs. division rivals
· The Raiders are on an 8-1 Over the total run in pre-bye week games
Miami Dolphins Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/16 vs. Washington Commanders (Madrid)
· Miami is 6-1 Under the total in its last 7 pre-bye week games
· Miami is on a 4-0 Under the total streak in pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes, total point production 31.5 PPG
Minnesota Vikings Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/5 vs. Cleveland Browns (London)
· Minnesota is on an 8-1 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye week games vs. AFC teams
· The Vikings are on a 13-3 SU and ATS run in pre-bye week games overall
New England Patriots Pre-Bye Week Game – Mon 12/1 vs. New York Giants
· The Patriots are on a 6-2 Under the total run in pre-bye week games, scoring just 16.4 PPG
· New England has 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its last 7 pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes
New Orleans Saints Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/9 at Carolina Panthers
· The Saints have gone 15-6-1 ATS in pre-bye week games since 2003
· New Orleans is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last 5 pre-bye week games vs. divisional foes
New York Giants Pre-Bye Week Game – Mon 12/1 at New England Patriots
· The Giants are on an 0-4 SU and ATS skid in their last 4 pre-bye week road/neutral games
· The Giants are 8-1 Under the total in their last 9 pre-bye week games
New York Jets Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/26 at Cincinnati Bengals
· The Jets are on an 8-3 ATS run in pre-bye week road games
· The Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as pre-bye week underdogs
Philadelphia Eagles Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/26 vs. New York Giants
· The Eagles lost an 8-game pre-bye week SU and ATS winning streak last year, falling 33-16 at Tampa Bay
· Philadelphia is on a 6-0 SU and ATS streak in pre-bye week games vs. divisional foes, outscoring them 24.7-13 on average
Pittsburgh Steelers Pre-Bye Week Game – 9/28 vs. Minnesota Vikings (Dublin)
· Pittsburgh is on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS run overall in pre-bye week games
· The Steelers are on a 6-2 ATS surge as pre-bye week game underdogs
San Francisco 49ers Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/30 at Cleveland Browns
· San Francisco has gone a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS since 1997 as a pre-week road favorite, outscoring opponents 34.7-16.1
· The 49ers have lost their last 3 pre-bye week games versus AFC foes against the spread
Seattle Seahawks Pre-Bye Week Game – Mon 10/20 vs. Houston Texans
· The Seahawks are 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS in pre-bye week home games since 2001
· The Seahawks are 9-2 Under the total in their last 10 pre-bye week games, allowing just 15.4 PPG
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/26 at New Orleans Saints
· Tampa Bay has won three straight pre-bye week games ATS after a brutal 2-10-1 ATS skid prior
· The Buccaneers haven’t been a good pre-bye week game overall lately, but they are 4-3 ATS in their last 7 such games vs. divisional foes
Tennessee Titans Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
· The Titans are 10-2 Over the total in their last 2 pre-bye week home games, total point production 47.5 PPG
· Tennessee has gone 5-2 ATS in its last 7 pre-bye week contests as an underdog
Washington Commanders Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/16 vs. Miami Dolphins (Madrid)
· Dating back to 1993, Washington is just 11-23-1 ATS in pre-bye week games overall, including 5-13-1 ATS in road/neutral games· Washington has gone just 2-7-1 SU and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 pre-bye week games vs. AFC opponents
