On October 2, the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams will clash at SoFi Stadium in a big Thursday Night Football divisional matchup. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 5 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch 49ers vs. Rams
When: Thursday, October 2 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
49ers vs. Rams Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, September 23rd. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Rams -290, 49ers +235
Spread: Rams -6.5 (-108), 49ers +6.5 (-112)
Total: Over 47.5 (-105), Under 47.5 (-115)
49ers vs. Rams Analysis
The 49ers are coming off a bad loss to the Jaguars last week. Brock Purdy’s three turnovers proved to be costly, and San Francisco’s inability to stop the run was problematic. Travis Etienne Jr. went for 124 yards and a touchdown on only 19 carries in the game, and he probably would have done more damage if Jacksonville needed to possess the ball more.
Kyle Shanahan’s team will now have to take on a Rams squad that is 3-1 — and should be 4-0 — after having defeated a good Colts group. Also, while the Shanahan vs. Sean McVay head-to-head used to be one-sided in favor of the 49ers head coach, Los Angeles has won three in a row against San Francisco — and covered in four in a row. On top of that, there’s some real doubt as to whether or not Purdy will be able to shed his questionable tag, meaning this could be a Mac Jones game.
Jones was able to lead the 49ers to wins over the Saints and Cardinals, but this Rams team is a whole different beast. Los Angeles is currently fifth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.092), and the team is second in Dropback EPA per play (-0.115). The latter is especially important in this matchup, as the Rams could be going against a backup quarterback and a depleted group of pass catchers. So, unless San Francisco unexpectedly gets an outrageous game on the ground from Christian McCaffrey, points will be hard to come by for the visitor. Purdy might not be able to save them, even if he goes. He’s still mistake-prone, he’s learning to play with a new group of weapons, and the offensive line isn’t as good as it once was.
There’s also no reason to worry about the Rams offense here. Los Angeles is 10th in the NFL in EPA per play (0.070), and we just saw Robert Salah’s team struggle against the run. There should be a blueprint for McVay to pound the rock with Kyren Williams. And even if there isn’t, this could be a game in which Matt Stafford torches the 49ers secondary. Puka Nacua has been a monster this season, going for at least 91 yards in all four games. He has also had at least 130 yards twice. Stafford will work the middle of the field with his star receiver, and that, along with Williams hammering away between the tackles, will eventually open up some deep-shot opportunities — like the 88-yard bomb the veteran threw to Tutu Atwell for the game-winning touchdown against Indianapolis.
McVay has also been the king of short weeks throughout his career. The Rams are 8-1-1 against the spread when playing on four or fewer days of rest under him, and they have won those games by an average of 7.0 points per game. Meanwhile, the 49ers are just 10-15 straight-up and 11-14 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 75% or higher under Shanahan.
49ers vs. Rams Player Props
Kyren Williams Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Last week, Williams rushed 13 times for 77 yards in a win over the Colts. The week before, he took 20 carries for 94 yards against a good Eagles defensive line. Williams struggled in Weeks 1 and 2, but he’s starting to get himself going a bit. So, he should be able to take advantage of a San Francisco defense that has fallen to the middle of the pack in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.104). The 49ers have allowed the lead back on the opposing team to rush for 67+ yards in two of their last three games. Williams also averaged 98.5 rushing yards in two meetings with San Francisco last year.
49ers vs. Rams Pick
It’d be surprising if the Rams can’t find a way to win this game, but laying 5 or 5.5 points always feels a little goofy. If you want to back Los Angeles, you’d be better off using the team in moneyline parlays or teasers. I might end up doing that, but I am definitely taking the Over on Williams’ rushing yard prop. This feels like a golden opportunity for him to stay hot.
Bet: Williams Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
