49ers vs. Rams – Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen:
Here are this week’s Thursday Night Football props.
Kendrick Bourne Over 39.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
Not only is Bourne familiar with this offense, having played four seasons under Kyle Shanahan in SF, but he also had his best season in 2021 as a Patriot, when Mac Jones had an excellent rookie season in New England. The duo has already been clicking this season, with Bourne posting 7/70 on 9 targets (83% catch rate) with a strong 8.5 YPT in Weeks 2-3 with Jones starting. Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings combined for 27 targets in those two games, and they’re both out. Jones has attempted 39 and 41 passes in his two starts, which is a trend that will likely continue with the 49ers at 7.5-point road underdogs. The Rams give up the second-fewest receiving YPG (11.5) to RBs, not good for CMC, and they can be stingy against the pass in general, but they’re most vulnerable on the outside. They give up a 9.65 YPA and 68% completion percentage to out wide targets, and Bourne runs about 60% of his routes outside. Protection will be an issue, but Jones has played well as a Niner, and they’ll look to get the ball out quickly, so I would not be surprised if Bourne got 8+ targets.
Jake Tonges Over 27.5 receiving yards (-113, DraftKings)
I set my sights on this one Wednesday night at 25.5, but it’s been bet up. But we’re projecting 40.25 yards at Fantasy Points, which is still 49% higher than this number. He has between 3-5 targets every week so far, with reception totals of 3, 2, 4, and 3. They’ll need him more this week with their top two wideouts out. It’s an excellent schematic matchup, since the Rams use the sixth-highest rate (39.5%) of Cover 3, and he averages a rock-solid 1.80 YPRR on 25 routes against the coverage. They also use Cover 1 and Cover 2 about 40% of the time combined, and he’s averaging a strong .57 FP/RR against those shells. LA has also allowed double-digit FP to Tyler Warren (5/70 receiving), and Dallas Goedert got them for a 33-yard TD the last two weeks. I think he’ll get to 3-4 grabs, and we should need only 3 to get to 26 yards.
Davante Adams Over 54.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
The 49ers have been fairly stingy against WRs, but they’ve also played the Seahawks, Saints, Cardinals, and Jags, not exactly high-powered passing attacks. The 49ers generated by far a Week 4 worst 9.4% pressure rate in their first game without Nick Bosa last week, and Stafford’s CPOE (8.6%>-5.0%) and passer rating (114.0>91.0) are considerably better from a clean pocket compared to when he’s pressured. It’s not the greatest schematic matchup for Adams, but it should be a good individual one, since he’ll likely see the most of CB Renardo Green, who gives up a generous 0.36 FP/RR (sixth-most). He’s not on the injury report this week, and has the second-best Average Separation Score (.236) and win rate (26.8%) among WRs who’ve run 75+ routes, so he should get here on 4-5 grabs, since he’s averaging 15.8 YPR.
Mac Jones Over 32.5 passing attempts (-121, DraftKings)
Christian McCaffrey is averaging just 1.13 YBCO/ATT 3.26 YPC as a runner, and the Rams give up the ninth-fewest rushing YPG (72.8), and have done a number of Jonathan Taylor (22/96/0 scrimmage) and Saquon Barkley (22/55/0 scrimmage) the last two weeks, so I’m expecting the 49ers to have no choice but to take to the air, which is actually what Mac Jones has done in his two starts with 39 and 41 pass attempts in those games. The 49ers have no pass rush without Nick Bosa, so Matthew Stafford should be able to do what he wants, which is one of the reasons LA is a 7.5-point favorite in this Thursday Night Football matchup.
Demarcus Robinson Over 28.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
We’re projecting 45.72 at Fantasy Points, which is 60% higher than this number, and I’m smart enough to go with it even though I like Bourne more. We have the backup QB throwing to backup WRs, so they should know each other well, and Robinson has been with the team all year (suspended for the first three games). As mentioned above, the Rams are stingy against everything but outside receivers. They give up a 9.65 YPA and 68% completion percentage to out wide targets, and Robinson runs over 65% of his routes outside. He’ll also see the most of CB Cobie Durant, who is the least stingy of their top three stingy corners.
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