AFC and NFC Championship Game Sharp Report

By
Josh Appelbaum
-
753

3 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 45.5)

The 49ers (15-4) just took down the Cowboys 19-12 in the Divisional Round, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (15-3) just crushed the Giants 38-7 in the Divisional Round, easily covering as 8-point home favorites. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with the home team, steaming the Eagles up from -1.5 to -2.5. The Eagles -2.5 is juiced up to -120 across the board, indicating a possible further move up to the key number of -3. Philadelphia is receiving 72% of bets and 79% of money, signaling both sharp and public support. Home favorites are 23-9 (72%) straight up in the AFC and NFC Championship game over the past 20 years. The 49ers are in a prime teaser spot (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through multiple key numbers. The total opened at 45.5 and touched 46.5 throughout the week before falling back down to 45.5. The under is receiving 60% of bets and 68% of money. The forecast calls for mid 40s with overcast skies and 10 MPH winds. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (56% ATS) and unders (55%). 

 

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6:30 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 48)

The Bengals (14-4) just upset the Bills 27-10 in the Divisional Round, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (15-3) just edged the Jaguars 27-20 in the Divisional Round but failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as high as a 3-point home favorite. Early in the week, we saw respected money hammer the Bengals, flipping Cincinnati to a 2.5-point road favorite. However, once Patrick Mahomes looked good in practice and was upgraded to probable with his high ankle sprain, a flood of Chiefs money hit the market, driving Kansas City back to a 1.5-point home favorite. Currently 73% of bets and 74% of money is backing the underdog Bengals. Joe Burrow is 3-0 against the Chiefs and 16-7 ATS (70%) as a dog in his career. The Bengals are also a prime teaser candidate (+1.5 to +7.5), passing through multiple key numbers. The total opened at high as 50, dropped to as low as 46.5 but has since settled at 48. When the total is 48 or higher, the under is 23-12 (66%) in the past five postseasons. Currently 71% of bets are backing the over, providing the under with heightened contrarian value. The forecast calls for frigid temperatures in the low teens with 10 MPH winds. Ron Torbert, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (56% ATS) and unders (52%). 

 

Updated Super Bowl Odds at DraftKings

Eagles +240

Chiefs +260

Bengals +275

49ers +330

 

 

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