Analyzing the 2025 Rookie NFL Head Coaches

Analyzing the 2025 Rookie NFL Head Coaches:

Once again in 2025, we will have several new faces commanding the sidelines for various NFL clubs. In fact, there will be seven new men put in charge of franchises across the league, five of them rookies, and the other two being former NFL head coaches. With these changes, there is a good supply of data that we can use to make projections for the upcoming season. Based on the analysis of various data sets, the early prospects for teams with first-time head coaches are typically brighter compared to those with new but experienced head coaches.

Here is a look at each of the rookie head coaches who will be leading franchises in 2025:

Ben Johnson – Chicago Bears
The Detroit Lions’ steady rise over the last few seasons vaulted both of their coordinators into the spotlight and made each of them highly coveted options as first-time head coaches this offseason. The offensive side of the ball is where Detroit really flourished. Former OC Ben Johnson had a lot to do with that. His creativity and ability to make the most of the team’s talented offensive weapons were on full display for the last few seasons. The Bears are hoping to get from Johnson as their head coach. Chicago has spent a lot of draft and trade capital in recent years building up its offense. The weaponry has been much respected, the system and play calling have not. The Bears scored just 18.2 PPG a year ago in QB Caleb Williams’ rookie year. Like Johnson’s former quarterback in Detroit, Jared Goff, Williams was an overall first pick in the draft. The situation with Johnson in Chicago will be interesting to follow this season, as he has already stoked the flames of the rivalry with Green Bay, and specifically Packers’ HC Matt LaFleur. Johnson has named Denver tight ends coach Declan Doyle as OC and former Saints Head Coach Dennis Allen as DC.

Brian Schottenheimer – Dallas Cowboys
There was a period following the 2024 season when it appeared that Mike McCarthy might hold on to his job in Dallas. In the end, I think the public outcry to get better overcame owner Jerry Jones. Brian Schottenheimer steps in for his first role as a head coach in the league. He has held various positions and levels since his coaching career began in 1997, including most recently serving as the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator under McCarthy’s watch. The only thing that figures to change much this season would be the names in roles, and perhaps the team getting a fresh slate under a new face. One of Schottenheimer’s first orders of business was to name Arizona offensive line coach Klayton Adams to lead the offense and former Bears HC Matt Eberflus as the defensive coordinator. A return of a healthy QB Dak Prescott will be a good start for this team in 2025, but considering that they Cowboys were just 3-5 last season with Prescott under center, and allowed over 27 PPG on defense, I’m not sure there is a whole lot to be optimistic about in Big D right now.

Liam Coen – Jacksonville Jaguars
Liam Coen has had a new home and new job title going into each of the last six seasons, rotating between three different places, college and pro. This will be his fourth locale in that span, as he gets his first chance to lead an NFL team in Jacksonville. Undoubtedly, he has a big job to do. After leading the Jaguars to back-to-back 9-8 seasons that included a playoff win, things unraveled for Doug Pederson last season, and he was fired. What makes this situation even more challenging is that Jacksonville was 10-7 ATS, a sign that they were playing above expectations. They just weren’t very good, getting outscored by nearly a TD per game. On a good note, this franchise has had a tendency to bounce back quickly after rough seasons recently, as they went from 3-14 to 9-8 from 2021 to 2022, and from 3-13 to 10-6 from 2016 to 2017. It can be done. The biggest challenge for Coen, having last worked with QB Matt Stafford as OC for the Rams, will be to get QB Trevor Lawrence back up to speed after an injury-riddled 2024 campaign. His numbers weren’t bad in 10 games, but if Coen can get anything resembling the Rams’ passing attack going, the Jaguars have the weapons outside to produce a lot offensively. Minnesota offensive assistant Grant Udinski has been put in charge on that side of the ball, and the new defensive coordinator is former Packers’ assistant Anthony Campanile.

Kellen Moore – New Orleans Saints
Kellen Moore has led some of the more prolific offenses in the league over the last seven years as a quarterback coach and offensive coordinator, including a year ago for the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. This will be his first time taking over an entire NFL team. He has a big job in New Orleans as the Saints come off a season in which they failed to average 20 PPG for just the second time since 2005. They also allowed their most points per game in a season since 2016. There are some solid pieces to build around, but the biggest question for Moore has to be quarterback. Is Derek Carr the answer for the Saints after two mediocre seasons in which he went just 14-13 as the starter? Or is Moore better inclined to go a different direction? It would seem to be the former, as Moore has proclaimed that Carr can be very successful in his system. Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts have all been outstanding under his tutelage. Interestingly, the answers on the defensive side of the ball will have to be figured out by new defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, who was Herbert’s head coach for the Chargers through 2023 before moving into an assistant head role at San Francisco last year. The NFC South has become well known for being a division in which teams can make drastic moves in the standings from one year to the next. Could a last-to-playoff-berth move be in the cards for the Saints and Moore in 2025?

Aaron Glenn – New York Jets
The two-year Aaron Rodgers era in New York fell WAY short of expectations, other than perhaps from the drama side of things. There was always something to talk about. However, in the end, the franchise went through two coaches and are now looking for answers at the key quarterback position and elsewhere. The man put in place to find those answers is Aaron Glenn, who comes off a successful stint as defensive coordinator for Detroit. If he has anywhere near the impact on this franchise that he had with the Lions, things could be looking up again in the Big Apple in no time. In 2021, he took over a Lions defense that allowed a league-worst 32.4 PPG the prior year. All he did was lead them to improvements in each of the four seasons he was there in that regard. Of course, he was only in charge of one unit then. Here, he is responsible for an entire team, one that, quite frankly, looks like a mess right now. In fact, after the franchise fired Robert Saleh five games into last season, the Jets went on to finish 3-9 under Jeff Ulbrich, being outscored by nearly a TD per game. They lost a lot defensively after Saleh left, going from 17 PPG allowed to 26.6 PPG allowed under Ulbrich. Now, without Rodgers, there are obvious weaknesses on both sides of the ball. That’s where Glenn’s new coordinators come in—Tanner Engstrand (Detroit pass game coordinator) on offense and Steve Wilks (San Francisco DC) on defense. In terms of replacing Rodgers, the team has brought in Justin Fields, whose early career returns at both Chicago and Pittsburgh have been checkered at best. This is a situation that will probably command a lot of patience from Jets fans, but of course, they’ve grown accustomed to that.

Rookie Head Coach Recent History

How do rookie head coaches tend to fare, both early and overall? In general, they do make teams better in their first season. Last year, only one of the four teams with rookie head coaches got worse (Tennessee). So, while improvement certainly isn’t automatic, the change alone typically does a team good. The youthful exuberance probably breathes fresh air into the building. There have been some major success stories lately, most recently DeMeco Ryans of the Texans, who guided his team to a 10-7 record and playoff win in 2023 after taking over a 3-13-1 team from 2022. Shane Steichen of the Colts also helped his team improve by five wins in 2023. In 2022, Kevin O’Connell of the Vikings and Brian Daboll of the Giants both led their teams to five-win improvements and playoff appearances.

Here is a chart showing all of the rookie FULL SEASON head coach results over the last 10 seasons. There have been 40 different coaches that have started their careers over the last decade and lasted at least one FULL season. Note that Urban Meyer and his disastrous 13-game stint with Jacksonville in 2021 is not shown as he didn’t last a full season. For each coach, you’ll find their record that season, the next season, and the franchise’s record in the season prior to that coach taking over.

VIEW NFL ROOKIE HEAD COACH CHART HERE

A few highlights from this chart:

–   Over the last 10 years, of the 40 different first-time head coaches that spent a full season with their new teams, 24 have led their teams to improved won-lost marks, seven have produced equal records, and only nine have seen their teams drop. In 2024, two of the rookies’ teams improved, one stayed the same, and the other dropped by three games. Without any other considerations, this represents a 60% chance of improvement. Of our five teams with rookie coaches for 2025, three figure to improve their won-lost records over a year ago.

–   The average win improvement by rookie head coaches over the last decade has been 1.7 wins per season, although the average by those who did improve was 3.96 wins per season. The greatest improvement season by any team has been seven wins. That has happened for four different coaches, most recently DeMeco Ryans of Houston in 2023.

–   Matt LaFleur of Green Bay has been the most successful rookie coach over the last decade, going 13-3 in his rookie season, and following that up with that same total the next two seasons as well. After a down year in 2022, he had the Packers back in the playoffs the last two seasons. Kevin O’Connell also won 13 games for Minnesota in 2022 but regressed to 7-10 the next season before rebounding again to 14-3 last year.

–   Brian Daboll of the Giants set a new benchmark for the last decade by going 13-4 ATS in 2022-23, beating the old mark of 12-4 set by Matt Nagy of Chicago in 2018.

–   The worst decline of a team following the hiring of a first-time coach was by Arizona in 2018, as the Cardinals went from 8-8 in 2017 to 3-13 under Steve Wilks. He was let go after that miserable campaign. Two other rookie coaches oversaw four-win drops. Of those three, only Zac Taylor of Cincinnati is still employed in the same position.

–   Taylor had the worst first-year mark of any rookie coach over the last decade, going 2-14 in 2019. However, his career turned around quickly, to the point that he was coaching the team in the Super Bowl in his fourth season and in another AFC title game following the 2022 season. The Bears’ Matt Eberflus came close to matching Taylor’s first-year futility in 2022, going 3-14. After a 7-10 campaign in 2023 and a 4-8 start last year, Eberflus was fired.

–   Brian Callahan set a new low benchmark for ATS futility last season by going 2-14-1 ATS (along with a 3-14 SU record). You would have to think the seat is already hot for him in year two.

–   Of the last 32 coaches to stick around for a second season with a team over the last decade, only 13 have built upon their rookie campaign with an improved win total the next season. Doug Pederson and Nick Sirianni, both of Philadelphia, are the shining stars of that bunch, leading their Eagles to the Super Bowl in their second seasons. The difference in the two resumes? Pederson won an NFL title, Sirianni’s team came up short. However, the Eagles got that elusive title for Sirianni last season. Interestingly, Pederson also led a six-game turnaround as a retread in Jacksonville in 2022.

–   In terms of statistical improvements, Sean McVay’s 2017 Rams team made the biggest jump in scoring under any first-year head coach of the last decade, improving by 15.9 PPG. Defensively, Ben McAdoo’s Giants of 2016 improved their points allowed total by 9.8 PPG under his leadership.

–   The worst offensive decline guided by any first-year head coach over the last decade came in 2022 with David Culley at Houston, who dropped by 7.5 PPG. Dave Canales’ 2024 Panthers established a new worst defensively, going from 24.5 PPG allowed in 2023 to 31.4 PPG allowed.

As far as the new head coaches for 2025, here are a few rookie coaching systems to keep an eye on:

–   Of the last 34 rookie head coaches that inherited teams that finished under .500 the prior season, 23 of them led their teams to better records the next season, and 15 of them finished .500 or better in that first year. All five of the coaches in this current rookie crop (Chicago, Dallas, Jacksonville, New York Jets, New Orleans) finished well under .500 in 2024-25, so it is likely that at least three would figure to improve, and two would finish at .500 or better. If the number is two on that latter point, my guesses would be Chicago and New Orleans, if for no other reason than their new coaches have been quite successful in offensive coordinator roles very recently, and that can probably pay immediate dividends.

–   Of the 10 rookie head coaches over the last 10 seasons that inherited offenses that scored at least 23.5 PPG the prior season, only one saw his team produce a worse record the next season, that being New England’s Matt Patricia in 2018. The others improved by about 2.9 wins per season. None of the five rookie coaches for 2025 will be fortunate enough to inherit this situation, as Brian Schottenheimer’s own offense in Dallas scored the most at 20.6 PPG.

–   Obviously, there has been a lot of room to grow when a new head coach takes over a team that scored less than 19.5 PPG the prior season. There have been immediate results for this lucky group of coaches, as 11 of the last 15 teams that fit this bill over the last decade have improved, by an average of 4.7 wins per season, including Dave Canales of Carolina last year. Using this logic, Ben Johnson of Chicago and Liam Coen of Jacksonville have the greatest room for improvement.

–   Point differential has also proven to be a good indicator of potential improvement, as only one of the last 15 rookie coaches to inherit teams that were outscored by 6.0 PPG or more saw their teams get worse in that first season. In fact, 10 of them improved their franchise’s win total that first season, by an average of 4.3 wins per! For 2025, we have two candidates…Schottenheimer (Dallas) and Coen (Jacksonville). For those of you not doing the math in your head, a 4+ win improvement for the Cowboys in 2025 would put them in 11-win territory.

As far as in-season game-by-game betting opportunities, it should be noted that rookie head coaches have produced a regular season record of 294-363-2 SU and 314-329-16 ATS (48.8%) over the last decade. In other words, they lose more than they win, both on the scoreboard and at the betting window. Here are some other things to consider regarding betting on and against rookie head coaches throughout the NFL season:

–   Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 146-172-10 ATS (45.9%). Road/Neutral games – 168-157-6 ATS (51.7%). It seems as if oddsmakers may be tending to shade lines against these rookie coaches on the road, wrongly assuming the pressure and difficulty of the road environments will impact the execution levels. Obviously, there are other factors contributing to this as well.

–   Rookie head coaches have won as big favorites, but covering point spreads has been a different story. In fact, as favorites of 6 points or more since 2015, rookie head coaches are 52-12 SU, good for 81.3% outright, but have gone just 25-37-2 ATS, a covering rate of just 40.3%. Going into 2025, they are on a 7-19-1 ATS (26.9%) skid in this regard.

–   Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 27-113 SU (19.3%) and 66-74 ATS (47.1%) when catching 7 points or more since 2017.

–   Ironically, it’s in the games where coaching figures to matter most (+6.5 to -5.5 lines) where rookie head coaches are able to hold their own against the point spread. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 210-230-2 SU and 215-214-13 ATS (50.1%).

–   In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2015: Divisional games 111-125-4 ATS (47%), Conference games 117-120-5 ATS (49.4%), Non-Conference games 86-83-7 ATS (50.9%). These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.

–   Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2015, in games #1-#4 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 77-79-4 ATS, good for 49.4%. In games #5-#12, they’ve gone 148-161-11 ATS (47.9%). To close the season in games #13-#17, the record has been 89-89-1 ATS (50%). Again, not awe-inspiring patterns, but there is some foundation to this. Think of these trends when you see the schedules of the five rookie head coaches in 2025, which will be released shortly.

–   Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together and keeping the team galvanized after losses. Rookie head coaches have been better at the latter. When coming off losses, rookie head coaches own a record of 80-88-1 ATS (47.6%) since December 2020. After wins, they’ve done measurably worse in that same time frame, 43-67-6 ATS (39.1%).

–   Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the revenge spot. When taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 28-44 SU and 31-41 ATS (43.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2015.

I tout these trends and systems every week in the VSiN NFL Analytics Reports, so even if these angles don’t find a permanent place in your memory bank, I will recall them for you every time they pop up this season. Hopefully, what you’ve read here gives you a better feel of what to possibly expect from our new rookie NFL head coaches for 2025. Over the course of the next six weeks, I will be unveiling some of the other key offseason analyses I conduct every year, including post-draft analysis and transitional systems based upon the teams’ resumes and stats from last season. At the conclusion, I will wrap up my NFL prep work by updating my power ratings and running them against the schedule to produce win projections and schedule strengths. It is then that I will offer my own best bets for the season win totals that have already been released.