Analyzing the Veteran NFL Head Coaches Leading New Franchises in 2025

Analyzing the Veteran NFL Head Coaches Leading New Franchises in 2025:

Once again in 2025, we will have several new faces commanding the sidelines for various NFL clubs. In fact, there will be seven new men put in charge of franchises across the league, two being former NFL head coaches. With these changes, there is a good supply of data that we can use to make projections for the upcoming season. 

Here is a look at the veteran head coaches who will be leading new franchises in 2025:

Pete Carroll – Las Vegas Raiders
Some franchises just don’t realize how good they have it sometimes. Alternatively, they may simply overestimate the impact a fresh start can have on a team. In retrospect, there weren’t many valid explanations for why the Seahawks decided to move on from Pete Carroll following the 2023 season. After all, he had gone 137-89-1 for them in 14 regular seasons with the club, adding a 10-9 playoff record and a Super Bowl title. Furthermore, he was let go after a 9-8 season, his 11^th winning record in 12 years. As it turns out, Seattle didn’t lose a whole lot, as they improved to 10-7 in the season following his exit. That said, this situation has clearly become Las Vegas’ gain, as the Raiders’ franchise has struggled under the last three coaches since Jon Gruden was ousted in 2021. They are just 25-38 since. 

Carroll will obviously provide some stability atop the franchise. Now he just has to help the on-the-field product. Interestingly, the team has added a key piece, one familiar to Carroll, to the mix for 2025: QB Geno Smith, who has put up some nice numbers for the Seahawks over the last three years, including two seasons under Carroll. Is there enough elsewhere to aid an immediate turnaround? That remains to be seen. The new-look offense will be guided by another very familiar name, Chip Kelly, who gets back to the NFL after guiding Ohio State’s national title offense a year ago. The defense, which was very good in 2023 but slipped back a peg or two last year, will continue to be led by Patrick Graham. The biggest and perhaps most surprising news on that side of the ball came when stud DE Maxx Crosby re-signed with the team in the offseason. In my opinion, much like Jim Harbaugh and Dan Quinn a year ago, this “retread” hire has a chance to make an immediate positive impact.

Mike Vrabel, NEW ENGLAND
The Jarod Mayo era in New England lasted just one uninspiring season, and the Patriots have gone back to a Super Bowl-era legend to right the ship. No, it’s not Bill Belichick; rather, one of his top defenders during his playing days, Mike Vrabel. As a 14-year veteran linebacker, Vrabel won three Super Bowl titles for this franchise, so fans in Foxboro are obviously excited to get this perennial winner in charge. Not only that, but he’s also proven to be a successful coach in the league as well, including guiding the Titans to a 54-45 record with two playoff wins from 2018-23. In his coaching days, he has become known for his no-nonsense approach that commands respect and accountability. That is somewhat rare in the profession nowadays. In fact, his initial meeting with the Patriots’ players apparently ruffled some feathers among those unaccustomed to such ways. 

We’ll see how it turns out in the end, but this franchise didn’t become the league’s best this century by doing things in the opposite way. The biggest questions Vrabel has to find answers for are probably on offense, as this team scored just 17 PPG last season. Of course, rookie QB Drake Maye showed some promise and grit after taking over as starter for the final 12 games. His numbers reflect some strong potential in both throwing and running the football. The team will need to upgrade the weapons around him, however, and putting it all together will be another Patriot legend who returns as offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels. His defensive counterpart is former Lions assistant Terrell Williams. I don’t expect this franchise to be down long under Vrabel, and I would put the Patriots as a top candidate for a bounce-back season.

“Retread” Head Coach Recent History

As we dig into the recent history of the coaches I designate as “retread,” here is a clarification of that designation. These are guys who had head coaching jobs previously at another franchise, any experience included. It doesn’t matter the time between jobs either, just that they had prior head coaching responsibility. As I indicated earlier, there are two such coaches for 2025: Pete Carroll in Las Vegas and Mike Vrabel in New England. How do these coaches tend to fare? We’ll dig deeper into that shortly, but overall, you’re going to want to acknowledge right away that the records for the Retread Head Coaches over the last decade in their first full regular seasons are a paltry 165-226-2 SU and 173-202-18 ATS (46.1%). This immediately gives fade potential for 2025. Keep in mind, we had two very successful retreads last year in Jim Harbaugh and Dan Quinn, so perhaps the tide is turning. As I noted earlier, I do believe both Carroll and Vrabel have good chances to improve their respective squads in 2025.

Here is a chart showing all of the retread results over the last 10 seasons. Over the last decade, 24 different coaches have restarted their careers at new teams and lasted at least one season. For each coach, you’ll find their record that season, the next season, and the franchise’s record in the season prior to that coach taking over.

VIEW VETERAN COACHES LEADING NEW FRANCHISES CHART HERE

A few highlights from this chart:

–   There isn’t a whole lot of predictive improvement/decline expectation from a general perspective, as over the last decade, of the 24 retread head coaches. Thirteen have helped their teams improve in the next season, one maintained record, and the 10 others managed a decline. However, the 13 that did improve did so by 3.8 wins per season, while those that declined averaged just 2.4 fewer victories.

–   The greatest improvement season from any retread head coaches over the past decade belonged to Dan Quinn with Washington a year ago , who improved the Commanders by eight wins. Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers) in 2024, Todd Bowles (NY Jets) in 2015, and Doug Pederson (Jacksonville) in 2022, also all led their teams to six-win improvements year over year.

–   Gary Kubiak has been the most successful retread coach over the last decade in his first season, although his 12-4 mark for the Broncos in 2015 simply maintained the standard set by the franchise a year earlier. Dan Quinn nearly topped Kubiak by going 12-5 last year, however. He also won two playoff games.

–   The worst decline of any team following the hiring of a retread coach was by Tampa Bay in 2022, as the Bucs were 8-9 under Todd Bowles after going 13-4 the prior season.

–   Hue Jackson of the Browns had the worst first-year mark of any retread coach over the last decade, going 1-15 in 2016. He did worse a year later, guiding Cleveland to a 0-16 finish.

–   Of the last 19 retread coaches to stick around for a second season with a team over the last decade, nine have built upon their first campaign with an improved win total the next season. The best two seasons from this group came from Mike McCarthy, leading the Cowboys to a 12-5 record in 2021, and Dan Campbell, guiding the Lions to a 9-8 finish in 2022, both marking six-win improvements. Sean Payton of Denver had a two-game jump in his second year last season after a three-game improvement in 2023.

–   In terms of statistical improvements, Quinn’s 2024 Commanders and Doug Pederson’s 2022 Jaguars made the biggest jumps in scoring under any retread head coaches of the last decade, improving by 8.9 PPG. Defensively, Anthony Lynn’s Chargers of 2017 improved their points allowed total by 9.4 PPG under his leadership.

–   The worst offensive decline guided by any retread head coach over the last decade came last year with Todd Bowles at Tampa Bay, who dropped by 11.7 PPG. Mike McCarthy’s 2020 Cowboys fell the worst defensively, going from 20.1 PPG allowed in 2019 to 29.6 PPG allowed in 2020.

–   Quinn set a new point differential standard for re-tread head coaches in 2024, improving his Commanders by 16.6 PPG (-11.1 to +5.5). The worst was Bowles in 2022 with the Bucs, -12 PPG (+9.3 to -2.7).

As far as the new retread head coaches for 2025, here are a few coaching systems to keep an eye on:

–   Of the 18 retread head coaches that inherited teams that finished under .500 the prior season, 13 of them led their teams to better records the next season. The average improvement for this team was 3.8 wins per season. Both Las Vegas and New England finished 4-13 this past year.

Of the six retread coaches who inherited teams at or above .500 the prior year, none improved, and the average decline was 2.3 wins per season.

There has been a lot of room to grow when a retread head coach takes over a team that scored less than 21 PPG the prior season. Over the last decade, 13 of the last 17 teams that fit this bill have improved by an average of 3.4 wins per season. This includes Harbaugh, Morris, and Quinn from a year ago. For 2025, both the Raiders and Patriots easily qualify.

–  It is also a good sign for retread coaches who have taken over lesser defensive teams, as of those whose teams allowed more than 21 PPG the prior year, 13 of the 20 teams saw their win total the next season increase, by an average of 3.9 per season. Both Las Vegas and New England fit this bill for 2025.

As far as in-season game-by-game betting opportunities, I noted earlier that re-tread coaches have covered the point spread in just 46.1% of their first-season games over the last decade. Here are some other things to consider regarding betting on and against re-tread head coaches throughout the NFL season:

–   Unlike the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches have been more proficient at covering point spreads at home since 2020. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 48-43 ATS (52.7%). Road/Neutral games – 47-52 ATS (47.5%). This is a very interesting trend that has done a complete turnaround over the last half-decade. Experience and playing at home have been advantages for these coaches in recent years.

–   Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 91-66 SU but just 58-88-11 ATS, for 39.7%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 79-165 SU and 121-117-6 ATS (50.8%). This would seem to be a beneficial trend for Raiders and Patriots bettors, particularly early in the season for 2025.

–   The ATS results by game type are almost identical for the Division (48.6%) and Conference (47.9%) scenarios for retread coaches in terms of opponents. However, in non-conference games, they have really struggled, going 42-58 ATS (42%) over the last decade, including 15-28 ATS (34.9%) over the last three seasons.

–   Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2015, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 98-131 ATS (42.8%), while in weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 81-74 ATS (52.3%). It seems that it takes some time for these coaches to find their footing in their new homes.

–   There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these retread head coaches. Since 2015, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 79-75 ATS (51.3%) record in their first seasons, including 29-22 ATS (56.9%) since mid-2022. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 135-173 ATS (43.8%) in that same time span.

–   Retread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 25-18 ATS (58.1%) when having lost an earlier-season game against an opponent. This trend is on a 14-4 ATS run heading into 2025. When having beaten that team the first time around, these coaches have gone just 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) in the rematch games since 2014. Pay attention to the early divisional results of Las Vegas and New England this season, and strike accordingly the second time around.

I tout these trends and systems every week in the VSiN NFL Analytics Reports, so even if these angles don’t find a permanent place in your memory bank, I will recall them for you every time they pop up this season. Hopefully, what you’ve read here gives you a better feel of what to possibly expect from the new NFL head coaches for 2025 with previous head coaching experience. Over the course of the next six weeks, I will be unveiling some of the other key offseason analyses I conduct every year, including post-draft analysis and transitional systems based upon the teams’ resumes and stats from last season. At the conclusion, I will wrap up my NFL prep work by updating my power ratings and running them against the schedule to produce win projections and schedule strengths. It is then that I will offer my own best bets for the season win totals that have already been released.d.