Average Joe Contest
The new season of the Edge Boost/Average Joe Contest is underway, as more than 27,000 picks were made for Week 2 of the college football season and Week 1 of the NFL season. We’re excited to be partnered with Edge Boost again for this season and looking forward to seeing who ends up winning the quarterly and full-season prizes.
Those who have an Edge Boost account funded with $100 or more are eligible to win $1,000 if they have the best score of the week. Sign up with the promo code VSiN to get started with Edge Boost. If you just want to play for fun, you can do that as well, as this contest does not have an entry fee.
Each week, I’ll outline the top consensus spreads and totals for the NFL. The deadline for picks is 11 a.m. ET, so there isn’t any turnaround time to talk about the top college plays, but plenty of time to consider and think about the NFL and if you want to fade the public – or Average Joes – or line up on their side. We use lines from Circa Sports as of 1 p.m. ET on Fridays and all contestants pick from those numbers. You can read more about the contest rules here.
Keep in mind that you can still be eligible for prizes, even if you didn’t sign up in time for Week 1. You can do that here.
NFL Picks Week 1
Let’s look at the most popular spreads for NFL Week 1. These are the most popular games by consensus, so they may not be the most-picked sides by volume, but have the highest percentage of the spread picks on that particular game.
Getting a survey of what “Average Joes” are thinking on the NFL is always intriguing. Of course, you can also do that with our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits, but we’re here to look at what contest players are thinking.
Here are the most popular ATS Picks for Week 1:
Steelers -5.5 (90%) vs. Falcons
Belief in Cooper Rush seems to be lacking, as Tua Tagovailoa will not play for Atlanta and Michael Penix Jr. is not ready to go yet. It will be the debuts for Kevin Stefanski with the Falcons and Mike McCarthy for the Steelers, as he is reunited with Aaron Rodgers. This was a better number earlier in the week when the thought was that Tua would be in the lineup. Joes had no issue taking the slightly higher price.
Of the 872 picks on this game, 788 are on the Steelers -5.5.
Eagles -5.5 (90%) vs. Commanders
Another 5.5 line here, as the Eagles wound up a very popular pick against the Commanders. This one is surprising, given that a lot of the training camp and practice reports about Philly were not great heading into the season. That did not seem to deter Joes from picking this game in the 4:25 p.m. ET window.
Of the 801 picks on this game, 717 are on the Eagles -5.5.
Vikings -1.5 (82%) vs. Packers
In Kevin O’Connell we trust. Or at least the Joes do. They also seem to trust Kyler Murray as he gets a fresh start with Minnesota. This one is actually the most popular pick by volume this week. The Packers don’t have Josh Jacobs and that seems to be one of the reasons why the Vikings made their way into one of the top selections.
Of the 1,173 picks on this game, 965 are on the Vikings -1.5.
Here are the three most popular totals of Week 1:
Similarly, I’ll also be looking at the top totals each Saturday morning with a little bit of context mixed in.
Browns/Jaguars Under 40 (92%)
It would appear that Deshaun Watson is going to bring the Browns down in the minds of the Joes, as this is the most popular total on the board. The expectation is that the Browns won’t regress much on defense, despite the losses of Myles Garrett and DC Jim Schwartz. Personally, I’d be very wary of a pick-six from Watson or some sort of other backbreaking turnover that could lead this total to go Over the total. Joes didn’t seem to mind.
Of the 274 picks on this total, 253 are on the Under.
Broncos/Chiefs Under 43.5 (91%)
Monday Night Football brings us a very popular Under, which is not typically how the betting market reacts to a primetime matchup. Usually we see people pile in on the Over as those who are watching the game want to be entertained and root for points. Surely the health of Patrick Mahomes is a contributing factor here, as he’s been cleared to play, but he’s coming off of a torn ACL and did not play in the preseason. Plus, he’s facing an elite defense.
Of the 182 picks on this total, 166 are on the Under.
Falcons/Steelers Under 41 (89%)
The Falcons and Steelers show up again here. Three Unders in the consensus is a pretty rare thing as well. We won’t see many weeks like that, but everybody has the expectation of lower-scoring games and depressed red-zone efficiency to begin the season. That and Cooper Rush is getting the start for the Falcons.
Of the 168 picks on this total, 150 are on the Under.
See all of the pick counts, including college football, on the Average Joe Contest Betting Splits page.
