Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, September 13, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 55-25 SU for +16.10 units (ROI: 20.1%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-131 vs TEX)
Trend: Under the total is 41-28-1 (+9.40 units) in SF night games with starter Logan Webb against opponents with a >= 0.500 win pct since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-SF (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 41-21 (66.1%, +19.93 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 32.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+102 at MIN)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 63-55 for -10.14 units for an ROI of -8.6%.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+170 at MIL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a month left, they are now 148-223 start for -29.55 units (-8% ROI) after losing about 40 units over the 2-1/2 months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+153 at DET), WASHINGTON (-136 vs LAA), PHILADELPHIA (+109 at ATL)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 106-56 for -18.46 units, ROI -11.4%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-208 vs CIN), BOSTON (-192 vs KC)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 42-25 start for -14.56 units and an ROI of -21.7%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-208 vs CIN), BOSTON (-192 vs KC)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 299-366 for -29.32 units, and comes off a rough three-and-a-half-week stretch, giving back over 18 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+113 at WSH), HOUSTON (+113 at TB), CLEVELAND (+104 at MIN), PITTSBURGH (+130 at CHC)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 249-176 for +40.52 units, an ROI of +9.5%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-117 at STL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 176-208 start for -45.44 units (ROI -11.8%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-136 vs LAA), TAMPA BAY (-136 vs HOU), CHICAGO CUBS (-157 vs PIT)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice FADE system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 158-183 for -1.53 units. However, it has lost -14.8 units over the last two months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+153 at DET), PHILADELPHIA (+109 at ATL), CINCINNATI (+170 at MIL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 487-509, but for +34.75 units and an ROI of 3.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+153 at DET), PHILADELPHIA (+109 at ATL), CINCINNATI (+170 at MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 422-483 but for +85.62 units and an ROI of 9.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+153 at DET), NY METS (+148 at NYY), LA ANGELS (+113 at WSH), HOUSTON (+113 at TB), CLEVELAND (+102 at MIN), CINCINNATI (+170 at MIL), PITTSBURGH (+130 at CHC), TEXAS (+109 at AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 174-71 for +15.48 units and an ROI of 6.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-208 vs CIN)
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 55-25 SU for +16.10 units (ROI: 20.1%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-131 vs TEX)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 478-461 (50.9%) for +13.88 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-180 vs NYM), ATHLETICS (+111 vs SEA)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,236-2,116 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -274.03 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-186 vs COL), NY METS (+148 at NYY), CINCINNATI (+170 at MIL), MILWAUKEE (-208 vs CIN), ATLANTA (-131 vs PHI), SEATTLE (-134 at ATH)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,302-2,895 (44.3%) for -280.4 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+157 at BOS), HOUSTON (+113 at TB), PHILADELPHIA (+109 at ATL)
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 686-575 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.01 units, for an ROI of 1.5%.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+111 vs SEA)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 365-322 (53.1%) for +25.35 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+111 vs SEA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams that have won their last three games and are road favorites versus an opponent with a losing record have gone 117-47 (+34.96 units, ROI: 21.3%) in their last 164 tries.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-131 at SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5 games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 220-168 (+26.92 units, ROI: 6.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-131 at SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 168-172 (-75.88 units, ROI: -22.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-208 vs CIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 625-628 for +6.45 units, good for +0.5% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CINCINNATI +170 (+40 diff), KANSAS CITY +157 (+20), MIAMI +118 (+17), PITTSBURGH +130 (+14)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ARIZONA -131 (+47 diff), NY YANKEES -180 (+29), TORONTO -151 (+29), SAN DIEGO -131 (+20), ATLANTA -131 (+13)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (82-67) at (952) ATLANTA (88-61)
Trend: ATL is 51-26 (+13.73 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-131 vs PHI)
(953) LOS ANGELES-NL (90-58) at (954) MIAMI (73-76)
Trend: LAD is 58-83 (-30.80 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at MIA)
Trend: MIA is 10-13 (-5.53 units) against non-divisional league opponents with starter Eury Perez in the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+118 vs LAD)
(959) SAN DIEGO (80-68) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (62-87)
Trend: Under the total is 41-28-1 (+9.40 units) in SF night games with starter Logan Webb against opponents with a >= 0.500 win pct since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-SF (o/u at 7.5)
(961) KANSAS CITY (66-83) at (962) BOSTON (81-68)
Trend: KC is 27-47 (-15.32 units) in road games this season
Trend: KC 3-14 (-10.11 units) as a road underdog with starter Noah Cameron since the start of the 2025 season
Trends Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+157 at BOS)
(963) BALTIMORE (72-77) at (964) TORONTO (74-75)
Trend: Under the total is 26-19 (+5.75 units) with starter Trevor Rogers since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-TOR (o/u at 7)
Trend: Trevor Rogers’ teams are 22-43 (-15.76 units) when he starts as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+125 at TOR)
(965) HOUSTON (75-74) at (966) TAMPA BAY (89-59)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 17-4 (+11.26 units) when he starts as a favorite vs AL opponents since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-136 vs HOU)
(967) CLEVELAND (75-74) at (968) MINNESOTA (70-78)
Trend: Under the total is 13-4-1 (+8.75 units) when MIN is at home in the competitive line range of -126 to +130 with starter Joe Ryan since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-MIN (o/u at 8)
(969) SEATTLE (70-79) at (970) ATHLETICS (60-89)
Trend: ATH is 28-46 (-21.47 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+111 vs SEA)
(971) COLORADO (55-93) at (972) DETROIT (69-79)
Trend: Under the total is 41-28-4 (+10.20 units) in DET home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-DET (o/u at 9)
(975) NEW YORK-NL (69-79) at (976) NEW YORK-AL (85-63)
Trend: NYM is 7-9 (-3.09 units) on the road with starter Christian Scott in his career
Trend: NYY is 20-7 (+8.78 units) versus opponents with a losing record with starter Cam Schlittler in his career
Trends Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-180 vs NYM)
(979) TEXAS (73-76) at (980) ARIZONA (79-70)
Trend: TEX is 31-46 (-22.83 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+1.5 at AZ)
Trend: AZ is 16-5 (+10.97 units) in Eduardo Rodriguez’s last 21 home starts
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-131 vs TEX)
Top head-to-head series trends
Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Fri 9/11-Sun 9/13
Trend: PITTSBURGH is 13-27 (32.5%, -10.40 units) in their last 40 games at Wrigley Field
– The ROI on this trend is -26%
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+130 at CHC)
Series #32: Cleveland at Minnesota, Fri 9/11-Sun 9/13
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 41-21 (66.1%, +19.93 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 32.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+102 at MIN)
Series #33: Cincinnati at Milwaukee, Fri 9/11-Sun 9/13
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 41-16 (71.9%, +20.75 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play
– The ROI on this trend is 36.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-208 vs CIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, TORONTO, BOSTON, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, LA ANGELS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, NY YANKEES, LA ANGELS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-ATH
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, September 14)
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