NFL First Touchdown
Our first opportunity to bet the NFL First Touchdown Scorer market has arrived for 2026! Normally I’ll have this article out on Thursdays because that’s when the week’s games begin, but we’ve got a Wednesday tilt here in Week 1, so I’ll get this one out a day earlier.
I’ll spare you the long intro and refer you to what I wrote last week about the results from the last two seasons and a positional breakdown of the first team TD. Those patterns are things that I’ll keep an eye on as the season goes along. It should also be noted, though, that team success doesn’t always guarantee scoring first. The AFC champion Patriots only scored the first TD in 9/21 games. The Colts missed the playoffs AND had a losing record, despite scoring the first TD in 15/17 games. The Panthers won the NFC South and scored first in 7/18 games. Most of the good teams did have above 50% success rates scoring first.
This is helpful info for the First Touchdown Scorer market, but also when betting first quarters and first halves. Some coaches are better with the scripted drive than others. Also, I track whether or not a team scored on its first possession in the First Touchdown Scorer spreadsheet, put together by our Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak, who did this article the first few seasons for us.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 15/17 (88.2%) |
| Seahawks | 15/20 (75%) |
| Jaguars | 13/18 (72.2%) |
| Eagles | 12/18 (66.7%) |
| Lions | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Packers | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Rams | 12/20 (60%) |
| Bucs | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Giants | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Broncos | 11/19 (57.9%) |
| Browns | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Cowboys | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Ravens | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| 49ers | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Bears | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Bills | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Texans | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Steelers | 9/18 (50%) |
| Bengals | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Dolphins | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Chargers | 8/18 (44.4%) |
| Chiefs | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Falcons | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Panthers | 7/18 (38.9%) |
| Cardinals | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Titans | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Vikings | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Commanders | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Raiders | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Jets | 3/17 (17.6%) |
| Saints | 3/17 (17.6%) |
The Bills scored a TD on 10 of their 19 opening possessions to lead the league. Keep in mind that last season’s OC, Joe Brady, is now the HC, so they could be very good in this department again.
The Rams, Eagles, and 49ers shared second, scoring eight touchdowns on their first possession of the game, though the Rams did it in 20 games, the 49ers in 19, and the Eagles in 18.
Also in last week’s article, I outlined the most frequent first TD scorers – Derrick Henry led the league with 9, followed by Kyren Williams with 7, and then Jahmyr Gibbs, De’Von Achane, Christian McCaffrey, and Courtland Sutton with 6.
All of the team schedules are in the spreadsheet and we’re ready to roll. For the first few weeks, I will include the 2025 percentages, as the 2026 sample size just isn’t really big enough to be significant. As we get more data, I’ll drop 2025 from this matchup section.
With that, let’s get to the Week 1 action and look at some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible
NFL Week 1 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Patriots (42.9%) at Seahawks (75%) – Wednesday, 8:20 p.m. ET
—
49ers (52.6%) vs. Rams (60%) – Thursday, 8:35 p.m. ET
—
Buccaneers (58.8%) at Bengals (47.1%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Saints (17.6%) at Lions (64.7%)
Jets (17.6%) at Titans (35.3%)
Ravens (52.9%) at Colts (88.2%)
Falcons (41.2%) at Steelers (50%)
Bears (52.6%) at Panthers (38.9%)
Browns (52.9%) at Jaguars (72.2%)
Bills (52.6%) at Texans (52.6%)
—
Dolphins (47.1%) at Raiders (29.4%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Packers (61.1%) at Vikings (35.3%)
Commanders (29.4%) at Eagles (66.7%)
Cardinals (35.3%) at Chargers (44.4%)
—
Cowboys (52.9%) at Giants (58.8%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
—
Broncos (57.9%) at Chiefs (41.2%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 1 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Cleveland Browns: Harold Fannin (+1700); Jacksonville Jaguars: Parker Washington (+850)
I promise that there is a method to the madness here. The Jaguars were extremely good in Year 1 under Liam Coen in this department, scoring the first TD at a 72.2% clip. Parker Washington led the team with four of them. Wide receivers had 10 of the first team TDs last season, so I believe Coen likes throwing inside the 10.
With the Browns, they were pretty decent in this department with Kevin Stefanski, but I’m banking on Todd Monken here. Monken has spent the last three seasons as the OC of the Ravens. In that span, the Ravens scored the first TD of the game in 40 of 55 games, which is a 73% clip. Last season was actually a down year for the Ravens at 52.9%, as they were 16-of-19 in 2024 and 15-of-19 in 2023. Monken has the chance to bring that success to the Browns, even though Deshaun Watson is objectively worse than Lamar Jackson and there is no Derrick Henry. Baltimore was definitely accustomed to using Mark Andrews in the red zone. I could see Monken having Fannin very involved.
Buffalo Bills: James Cook (+550); Dalton Kincaid (+1700)
Like I mentioned above, the Bills were good at scoring first and scoring on their first possession. Cook was the most frequent scorer with five of the team’s first TDs. Kincaid had three, including two of the first three weeks last season and three in the first eight games. We’ll see if Josh Allen has an early-season rapport with him once again. Cook has 13 first team TDs over the last two seasons, so he’s a good option at a good price given that the Bills are facing the Texans, who have an excellent defense.
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor (+400); Tyler Warren (+1400)
We’ll see if Shane Steichen and Daniel Jones can keep the magic going. Jones got hurt in Week 14. Up until that point, the Colts had scored the first TD in 11 of 13 games. Ironically, the Colts didn’t score first in Week 14. But, they were great at this last season and Taylor had five of the first team TDs and Warren had three. All three of Warren’s actually came in a row.
The Colts did only score on their first possession in five games, but they were pretty good defensively early in games. As I mentioned, the Ravens have been awesome in this department, but it’s a new coaching staff and a first-time play-caller in Declan Doyle. With the Bears last season, Doyle was part of a group that was 10-of-19 with scoring first and had four first-possession TDs. I’ll take my chances with the Colts getting a fast start.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season.
