Average Joe Contest
Picks are locked in for Week 6 of the Edge Boost/Average Joe Contest here at VSiN. With over 20,000 selections submitted again this week, we can get a pretty good idea of what the most popular public plays are. This contest includes both NFL and college football picks and has an 11 a.m. ET deadline on Saturday. That means I have time to write up the top NFL selections if you want to ride along with the “public” Average Joes or go against them.
Those who have an Edge Boost account funded with $100 or more are eligible to win $1,000 if they have the best score of the week. Sign up with the promo code VSiN to get started with Edge Boost. If you just want to play for fun, you can do that as well, as this contest does not have an entry fee.
We use lines from Circa Sports as of 1 p.m. ET on Fridays and all contestants pick from those numbers. You can read more about the contest rules here.
Keep in mind that you can still be eligible for prizes, even if you didn’t sign up in time for Week 6. You can do that here.
NFL Picks Week 6
Let’s look at the most popular spreads for NFL Week 6. These are the most popular games by consensus, so they may not be the most-picked sides by volume, but have the highest percentage of the spread picks on that particular game.
Getting a survey of what “Average Joes” are thinking on the NFL is always intriguing. Of course, you can also do that with our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits, but we’re here to look at what contest players are thinking.
Here are the most popular ATS Picks for Week 6:
Chargers +8 (74%) vs. Chiefs
This is one of many stunning takeaways from this week’s Average Joe selections. First, it is very rare in this contest for an underdog, especially one as unpalatable as the Chargers, to be the most popular pick. Second, a 74% consensus is very low for the most popular spread play of the week. Incredibly, this is the ONLY pick north of 70%. So, apparently there are tons of differences of opinion out there with this week’s NFL card. Usually this contest is pretty predictable. This week is not.
Of the 416 picks on this spread, 307 are on the Chargers.
Packers -1 (69%) vs. Cowboys
Sunday Night Football will make another appearance in the totals portion of the article, but the Packers were a popular pick this week among Joes. This was also the most popular game in total with 1,145 picks across the spread and the Over/Under. It would seem that last week’s results have shaped a lot of thoughts, with Dallas losing in primetime to Jalon Daniels and the Bucs and the Packers pushing around the Bears in a 34-7 dub.
Of the 725 picks on this spread, 498 are on the Packers.
Falcons PK (67%) vs. Bears
As mentioned, sports are a results-driven business, not only for the bottom line, but also for the court of public opinion. The Falcons have looked pretty good with Michael Penix Jr. and the Bears did not look good last week. Caleb Williams is questionable. What’s interesting here is that Circa, whose lines we use for the contest, had the Falcons at pick ‘em, while most of the market was Bears -1.5. That didn’t deter Joes from lining up on the host Falcons here.
Of the 458 picks on this spread, 308 are on the Falcons.
Here are the three most popular totals of Week 6:
Similarly, I’ll also be looking at the top totals each Saturday morning with a little bit of context mixed in.
Cowboys/Packers Over 53 (97%)
Back to our regularly-scheduled programming here with the Over in the Cowboys game as our most popular totals play. Nobody believes in the Dallas defense and Dak Prescott and his collection of skill guys are always expected to perform. Green Bay having so much success on offense last week has not only improved Joes’ confidence in backing them ATS, but also backing them to score points.
Of the 420 picks on this total, 408 are on the Over.
Bills/Raiders Over 53.5 (94%)
Another predictable pick here. Klint Kubiak has injected quite a bit of life into the Raiders offense and Buffalo has been racking up points and yards this season. We also just saw the Vegas defense get roasted by the Patriots and Buffalo play another Over on Monday Night Football. It’s pretty much as simple as that here. Also, the game is indoors, so weather is not a factor at all.
Of the 184 picks on this total, 173 are on the Over.
Cardinals/Rams Over 51.5 (87%)
I almost feel guilty including this one because of the low volume on the total, but we do see much lower volume on totals in this contest than we do on sides. The Joes are leaning towards a Rams bounce back effort here, as 64% of pickers took them to cover the spread. We also see the Over as a popular position. Again, that’s not a surprise. A lot of Cardinals Overs show up here and the Rams have been able to score, but the defense has been a disappointment thus far.
Of the 91 picks on this total, 79 are on the Over.
See all of the pick counts, including college football, on the Average Joe Contest Betting Splits page.
