NFL Player Props
As data points continue to accumulate, bettors and bookmakers get a better idea of snap counts, usage rates, and play-calling tendencies. However, every game is different and the expected game state isn’t always the one that we get. While the player prop numbers come together with all the technology that sportsbooks have at their disposal, that doesn’t mean that those are super sharp numbers.
The degree of variance with the star players should be lower than it is with the lesser-known or lesser-used guys. That’s why the prop markets present so much value. You can take a strong stance on a superstar, or you can think about which players may benefit from injuries, an opponents’ lack of depth, or an increasing confidence in his abilities as seen through targets, carries, snaps, or production.
I’ve got my First Touchdown Scorer picks here and now here’s a look at my favorite Week 6 NFL Player Props.
We also have some awesome tools here at VSiN to help with your prop betting picks, including our OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections, exclusively available to our Pro Subscribers. Whether you use them as confirmation of a play that you already like or scan through to find the biggest edges, it is just another weapon in your arsenal against the sportsbooks while trying to build up that bankroll.
As always, shop around for these Week 6 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 7:30 a.m. PT on Friday, October 16 and are from DraftKings.
Here are my favorite Week 6 NFL Player Prop Bets:
Aaron Rodgers (PIT) Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-113)
Don’t worry, a lesser-known player is coming, but this was a prop that I noted right away. Rodgers has gone Over this number in four of his five games thus far, even with 14 sacks taken. He did not go Over last week against the Colts in the 34-22 win, but that’s the first game this season where the Steelers have controlled the game state enough for him to not have to throw the ball a lot.
Maybe they will this week against Jalon Daniels and the Bucs, but the Tampa Bay defense ranks 25th in completion percentage against and 28th in Sack Percentage, with just six sacks on the season. The run defense remains rather stout, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry, which is third-best in the league.
While Pittsburgh’s ground game has improved significantly this season, Jaylen Warren also has 26 targets and Rico Dowdle even has seven. This could be the type of game where Mike McCarthy and OC Brian Angelichio use quick passes as an extension of the run to spread out Tampa’s front seven, especially with windy conditions in the forecast.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (JAX) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Last week was not a good data point for Rodriguez. He only had nine offensive snaps and two carries for five yards, plus a catch for six yards. He totally whiffed on a block on fourth down and also fumbled at the goal line. In spite of his mistakes, the Jaguars won, but LeQuint Allen, who still doesn’t have a carry this season, had 13 offensive snaps.
Rodriguez and Coen go way back to their days at Kentucky, so I don’t think that we’re going to see Coen completely abandon his guy, but Bhayshul Tuten keeps getting more snaps and now we saw Allen out-snap Rodriguez. Perhaps we see Coen deploy Rodriguez in short-yardage situations, like he has, but I don’t think he’ll get many totes where he can rack up yards.
Also, the Texans have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards this season and the third-fewest among teams with five games played.
Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) Under 46.5 Passing Yards 1st Quarter (-112)
In his three starts, Penix has gone 5-of-16 for 52 yards in the first quarter with a pick, one sack, and one rush attempt. Bijan Robinson has rushed for eight yards per carry in the first quarter on 25 attempts, so Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees have found success early on running the football.
The Bears have also really controlled first quarters this season. Chicago has run 83 plays in the first quarter, while opponents have only run 56. With Chicago off of last week’s total embarrassment against the Packers, I would expect them to look to come out fast and put together one of those long, sustained drives early on.
Also, Penix hurt his ribs last week and may be a little bit shy in the pocket. That could mean Stefanski is going to rely on the run even more and let his QB settle into the game.
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