NFL Week 6 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
For as much as I would love to have 57% ATS winning percentages each week of an NFL season, I have to look back at my Week 5 record of 4-3-1 ATS with a bit of disappointment. Not only did I start 2-0, but I really felt like I was dead on with my Under pick in the Sunday night game between Atlanta and Baltimore. The game was played at the pace I wanted, and only a defensive score and some bad clock management at the end by the Falcons cost a would-be win. If I could go back, I’d make the same bet over again. That said, it’s still a winning week and brings my season record to 29-15-2 ATS (65.9%).
At this point, I am very pleased with the start to the season, and I credit it all to the depth of information we’ve been able to develop on our weekly VSiN NFL Analytics Reports. The system expansion, the deeper coverage of the betting splits, and the exposure of the best ratings edges each week have really given me what I believe is a significant advantage. This week’s games feature our first Post-Bye Week Trends and Systems, and the smallest slate we’ve seen so far, 14 contests. After digging through the Analytics report for Week 6, I’ve landed on these games.
Thursday, October 15, 2026
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Denver Broncos
It isn’t often that you get two of the prior season’s “final four” teams battling in a relatively early-season Thursday night game and the line shows a road favorite. Moreover, the teams share identical 3-2 records. Why is Seattle favored, though? The Broncos already took down the Rams as home dogs a couple of weeks back, and the Rams were the supposed Super Bowl favorite. Well, let’s face it: at this point, the Seahawks are better than the Rams, and the Broncos’ offense is struggling after back-to-back underwhelming performances.
I personally don’t like a short week for a team whose offense is not clicking. Seattle’s offense is clicking, currently averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt. That gives the Seahawks a nice situational angle: Road teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous, 154-101 SU and 146-105-4 ATS (58.2%) since 2015. The defending champs come off a disappointing loss to the 49ers, a game that could have easily gone the other way. Seattle is 37-26-1 ATS (58.7%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015, and 26-18-3 ATS (59.1%) vs. AFC foes since 2015.
This game also has a rare phenomenon when all of the qualifying TNF angles go one way: 1) In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, TNF home teams have gone 32-26 SU but 21-35-2 ATS (37.5%) in the last 58. 2) Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 10-24 SU and 15-19 ATS (42.4%) in their last 34, scoring just 16.6 PPG. 3) There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 26-24 SU and 32-17-1 ATS (65.3%) record.
Denver has struggled in primetime games lately, with a 14-22 SU and 12-22-2 ATS record in their last 36. No worries either that Seattle is getting heavy 88% wagering action at DraftKings, since over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 73-51 ATS (58.9%) record for +16.9 units and an ROI of +13.6%!
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll start week 7 by backing Seattle -2.5 at Denver on TNF
Sunday, October 18, 2026
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Total 42.5)
Apparently, Houston’s problems are now in the rearview mirror after it beat Tennessee last Sunday and then added WR Marvin Harrison Jr. to the fold. I don’t think this Texans team has cleared its offensive hurdles, though, and I believe the last two games against below-average defenses have masked it. In fact, even with those games, they are scoring 3.4 points below what their typical opponent effectively allows. When you combine that with the fact that the Jaguars are holding teams 7.8 points below their usual scoring averages, the math works out that we should expect just over 12 points from Houston here. Now that might be a bit of an exaggeration, but 17 doesn’t seem unreasonable. In which case, I think we need to take a real close look at an overseas Under here. As it is, Houston’s head coach DeMeco Ryans is on 22-7 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record and QB CJ Stroud is 19-13 Under the total in the last 32 games with his team coming off a win.
With the Jaguars also heading into their bye week next, we’ll have a pretty nice pre-bye week total angle in play too: Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 40-17-2 since 2013, 70.2%, +21.3 Units, 37.4% ROI). Jacksonville is also on a 4-0 Under the total surge in pre-bye week games overseas, scoring 12.8 PPG and Under the total is 6-2 in the Texans-Jaguars AFC South rivalry the last four seasons.
Of course, I always like to check where the money is going for any NFL game at DraftKings, and besides the fact that we have 74% of the handle, 37% of the bets on Under, usually the former being sharper, it also means this angle is in play: When 56% or more of the number of bets has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last three seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 66-57 ATS (53.7%). This number for a “supermajority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll go with Under 42.5 in a tightly contested Houston-Jacksonville tilt
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)
A pretty obvious team tendency is forming for the Steelers already in 2026. They have been very good in three home games (3-0 SU and ATS). They have been pretty bad in two road games (0-2 SU and ATS), with the late comeback in Cleveland masking what was otherwise a flat performance. Here, head coach Mike McCarthy’s team is the road favorite against a team starting to find its footing after a 0-4 start.
Last week’s upset win in Dallas saved the Bucs’ season, and their dominant play makes them a live dog here. Pittsburgh’s QB Aaron Rodgers is 11-16 SU and 7-20 ATS as a single-digit road favorite since 2021. This past week, I found a system showing that road favorites facing a great run defense (<= 100 RYAPG) haven’t been good bets in lower-total games (o/u <= 47), going just 80-73 SU but 59-89-5 ATS (39.9%) since the start of the 2015 season. Because Tampa Bay’s run defense has been so good, #2 in the league at 72.8 RYPG allowed, it could make things very difficult for Pittsburgh here.
You might think too that Rodgers should have a huge advantage over rookie QB Jalon Daniels, but Daniels looked dynamic against Dallas, and since 2021, or in their last 89 starts with their teams coming off outright wins, rookie QBs have thrived, going 48-41 SU and 53-33-3 ATS (61.6%). Also, since 2022, rookie QBs are 24-25 SU and 28-18-3 ATS (60.9%) versus non-conference foes.
A couple of indicators point to this one going against head coach Mike McCarthy in his first season with the Steelers: First, retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable as underdogs in their first season with a new franchise. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 108-72 SU but just 72-97-11 ATS, for 42.6%! Second, they have really struggled in non-conference games, going 40-58 ATS (40.8%) over the last decade, including 22-38 ATS (36.7%) over the last four seasons. With 64% of the handle on TB and only 30% of the bets as of Thursday AM, I see a spot for those in the know to like an upset.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Give me Tampa Bay +2.5 as the live home dog to Pittsburgh here
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns
Baltimore has had some tough games recently in Cleveland, with the pesky Browns always giving the Ravens fits, including last year, when the Ravens survived a 23-16 win-no-cover decision. Do I think this game has that potential, where rookie head coach Jesse Minter needs to have his team on upset alert? Yes, but not in the typical way of recent seasons. Cleveland is a real threat to Baltimore’s division supremacy, so I expect a complete, focused effort from the Ravens.
The line, of course, leads me to believe we will also be seeing the return of QB Lamar Jackson, making the Ravens’ offense its usual dynamic self. Currently, they are second in the league, behind Buffalo, at 9.0 yards per pass attempt. Road teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous, 154-101 SU and 146-105-4 ATS (58.2%) since 2015.
As it is, we have two obvious tendencies in place with Baltimore 50-27-1 ATS (64.9%) in road/neutral games since 2017, and Cleveland 26-41 ATS (38.8%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015. We also have 69% of the handle on the road Ravens, which in many cases would be a concern, except there are two systems saying it’s a good thing: 1) Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 73-51 ATS (58.9%) record for +16.9 units and a ROI of +13.6%! 2) The highlight of the 1-win separation games has been when bettors back the road team, as these majority groups have gone 87-61 ATS for 58.8% and +19.9 units of profit.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Give me Baltimore -4.5 at Cleveland if Jackson plays; pass if he doesn’t
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at New York Giants
Let’s see, 3-1-1 team hosts 1-4 squad and the road team is favored? Hmmm…that’s a head scratcher. Luckily, I have a solid system for this exact situation: Teams having a 10% win percentage or higher than their opponent but are playing as home underdogs are right to be priced this way, as they are 15-52 SU and 19-46-2 ATS (29.2%) since the start of the 2017 season. That is an ugly record. On top of that, here’s another nugget: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and face a team with more than a 50% winning percentage are 15-33 SU but 34-11-3 ATS (75.6%) in their last 48 tries. These are powerful angles and the exact reason readers have to subscribe to access them.
Overall, New Orleans is 44-26 ATS (62.9%) in road/neutral games since 2018. The Giants’ offense has some obvious concerns, and, on the surface, New Orleans has much more potential with its current personnel. In fact, in terms of effective numbers, the Saints are currently scoring 22.3 PPG, and the Giants 19.8. Low-scoring (< 22 PPG) NFL teams coming off back-to-back SU wins have been terrible as small underdogs (+3 or less) in the next game, going 13-46-1 SU and 14-43-3 ATS (24.6%) since the start of the 2015 season. After a three-game losing skid has put a season with high expectations in peril for head coach Kellen Moore’s team, I fully expect them to get a key win here against the heavy public sentiment at DraftKings the other way.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll go with the Saints -1.5 at New York
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
With the way the season is going so far, you would have to be crazy to be backing so many road favorites in a given NFL week, right? Well, for one, there are a higher percentage than usual this week, and for two, we have some pretty good offenses in that role. The Bills are one of them, coming off their huge win in Los Angeles on Monday and now hoping to head into their bye week with another big victory over a current playoff contender.
At this point in the season, Buffalo has the #1-rated pass offense in the league in terms of yards per attempt at a blistering 9.1. Road teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous, 154-101 SU and 146-105-4 ATS (58.2%) since 2015. The Bills are doing this in a season the experts are calling a slump for QB Josh Allen. His legs and innate ability to create big plays are making all the difference. In terms of positive team tendencies, Buffalo is 46-33 ATS (58.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017, 37-29 ATS (56.1%) in road/neutral games since 2019, and on a 7-3 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes, averaging 28.7 PPG in those contests.
After a 3-0 start, the Raiders have lost back-to-back games while allowing 75 points. In fact, go back three games, and they’ve allowed over 100. That is a huge concern against the Bills, since Buffalo tends to struggle against tough-minded defensive teams. In fact, using my effective numbers, with the Raiders allowing teams 3.7 PPG above their effective offensive averages, and Buffalo outscoring opponents’ defensive allowances by 9.7 PPG, my calculations peg the Bills for 36+ points here. I’ll take an NFL team projected to score 36 points every day and twice on Sunday.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Give me Buffalo -5.5 in Las Vegas
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (Total 42.5)
We have unbeaten versus winless in Kansas City this week, and unlike usual mismatch games, there aren’t many systematic angles based on team strength to back the Chargers. In fact, only one pops up on this week’s Analytics Report. Perhaps that’s because the Chargers are better than their record suggests, and the Chiefs aren’t as good as theirs. That said, I don’t really trust either of these teams that much to get the job done against this week’s point spread. Instead, I am going to focus on the total, which has much more evidence to support an Under.
First, Kansas City is coming off its bye week, and with experience in this, we know the Chiefs are 12-3-1 Under the total in their last 16 post-bye week games. The Chargers are heading into their bye week, and the systems suggest playing Under the total on any team entering their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent isn’t in the same situation. (Record: 40-17-2 since 2013, 70.2%, +21.3 Units, 37.4% ROI). The Chargers are 10-3 Under the total in their last 13 pre-bye week games, as well as 22-8 Under the total when playing on normal rest (7 days). The Chiefs have also been a huge Under tendency team in the head coach Andy Reid era, as his teams are 36-11 Under the total as a home favorite of 7 points or more since 2011. When we look at the recent head-to-head series between these teams, you will find that Under the total is 5-0 in their last five games at Arrowhead Stadium. The LA offense is struggling badly, and even though I think they can be competitive here, they’ll have to do it with defense, the run game, and by turning this into a field-goal battle.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Give me Under 42.5
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-1.5)
We have a really entertaining contest lined up for SNF, and like the TNF game a few days ago, we have the rare situation where all the posted SNF qualifying angles point one way: Green Bay. First, SNF home favorites of less than a TD have historically been solid, going 62-46-2 ATS (57.4%) in their last 110. Second, SNF teams coming off losses have proven they’re not ready for the big time, going just 17-33 SU and 20-30 ATS (40%) in their last 50 tries against teams off a win. Third, momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 18-27-1 SU and 20-25-1 ATS (44.4%) in their last 46, but those coming off a win are on a current 34-12 SU and 26-20 ATS (56.5%) surge.
If you didn’t know, Green Bay is 20-10-1 SU and 21-9-1 ATS in its last 31 prime time games. The Packers just posted their best effort of the year in a rout of Chicago and seem to have found their passing game again. That doesn’t figure to slow against a Cowboys defense that ranks 30th in yards per pass allowed. Overall, it doesn’t make sense to go against GB at Lambeau when they are playing well: Green Bay is 96-24 SU and 74-44 ATS as a home favorite since 2009. It also looks like a potential bad spot for Dallas, at least in terms of their tendencies in the QB Dak Prescott era: 24-32-1 SU and 19-38 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2016, and 6-15-1 SU and 8-13-1 ATS in the last 22 as a single-digit underdog. The money at DK also suggests a Packers play here, with only 35% of the bets but 62% of the handle, the sharper money, on them.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll lay the very short -1.5 points with what looks like a renewed Green Bay team
For more NFL Week 6 best bets, visit the NFL Week 6 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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