The Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season features the Chicago Bears taking on the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 2 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!

 

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How To Watch Bears vs. Texans

When: Sunday, September 15th at 8:20 pm ET

Where: NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas

Channel: NBC/Peacock

Bears vs. Texans Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, September 13th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Texans -298, Bears +240

Spread: Texans -6.5 (-115), Bears +6.5 (-108)

Total: Over 45.5 (-108), Under 45.5 (-112)

Bears vs. Texans Analysis

What we saw from Caleb Williams, the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, last week was pretty concerning. Sure, there is a long history of No. 1 picks struggling in their first regular-season games — especially against the spread — but Williams stepped into one of the best situations we’ve ever seen for a rookie quarterback. He’s playing behind a rapidly-improving offensive line and has D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet as his pass-catching weapons — and a now-injured Rome Odunze. The backfield also consists of D’Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert, who have both been productive rushers in their careers. However, Williams looked flustered in his first taste of real NFL action.

In a fluky win over the Titans, Williams was just 14 for 29 for 93 yards. He didn’t have any turnovers in the game, which is obviously nice. But he also didn’t throw for any touchdowns. Now, it’ll be interesting to see how he responds against a Texans defense that should be quite good this season.

Last year, Houston was 16th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA and 14th in EPA per play allowed. Things should only get better in Year 2 under head coach DeMeco Ryans. The 40-year-old was great as a defensive coach with the 49ers, and the Texans are doing everything they can to give him more talent to work with.

Houston’s defense is especially tough against the run. Last year, the Texans were sixth in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed. They also gave up only 48 yards on 16 carries against Jonathan Taylor last week. So, Houston should be able to slow down Swift and the Chicago running game. That means that the pressure will be on Williams to make some throws over the top. Houston squeaked by in a 29-27 win over Indianapolis last week, and the reason it was so close was that Anthony Richardson made some absurd downfield throws. Will Williams be able to do the same? If you’re looking at the side in this one, you might want to bet against him doing so by backing the Texans -6.5.

Williams didn’t showcase his downfield throwing ability in Week 1, and we’re still not sure what this Chicago offense is going to look like with Shane Waldron calling the shots. And the Bears offense is going to have to keep up with C.J. Stroud and a loaded Texans offense — and they’ll be trying to do so in Houston’s home opener. The Texans are also coming off a no-cover. Last year, they were 6-2 straight-up and 5-3 against the spread when coming off an ATS loss.

The best approach to this game might be to bet on the Under. Rather than banking on the Texans to win by a touchdown or more, you can put some faith in two good defenses. Last year, Chicago was fifth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed from Week 9 on. That was when Montez Sweat, who the Bears acquired from the Commanders, played his first game with his new team. Matt Eberflus now has himself an elite defense, which is why Chicago ultimately won in Week 1. The only touchdowns the Bears scored in that game came on a punt block and an interception. On top of that, the Texans definitely want to be more of a ball-control team in 2024. Sure, they’ll win some shootouts because of Stroud’s arm, but Joe Mixon ran the ball 30 times in Week 1.

Bears vs. Texans Player Props

Ka’imi Fairbairn Over 7.5 Total Kicking Points (-130)

Last week, Fairbairn went 3 for 3 on field goals and converted both of his extra point attempts. One of those field goals was from 51 yards. All in all, Fairbairn cashed in 11 points in a shootout win against the Colts. I’m not expecting this game to have nearly as many points, which is why the Under is my favorite play in the game. However, the Texans should be able to get the ball into Bears territory a couple of times in this game. And if Chicago’s defense can come up with some big stops, that will set Fairbairn up for a good amount of field goal opportunities. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if he matches the three field goals he made in Week 1, and I can even see him being called upon for a fourth if this is a defensive battle. But either way, 7.5 feels like a very low total for Fairbairn’s total points. Last year, he went Over this mark in eight of the 12 regular-season games he played.

Bears vs. Texans Pick

I already mentioned that I’m pretty high on both of these defenses. When you combine that with the fact that the Bears are a little unproven offensively, and that the Texans want to run the football, we’re probably looking at a game that should be lower in scoring. That’s why I’m leaning Under here. I also like the fact that the Under is 5-3 in the eight games that the Bears have played as road underdogs of 7 or less under Eberflus. However, I should mention that I’m not personally playing this Under. If you do want something I’m actually betting in this game, check out my Week 2 NFL best bets. I have something for this game that includes the Monday Night Football meeting between the Falcons and Eagles.

Pick: Under 45.5 (-105)

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