Well, that didn’t take long
The Bengals flipped from 1-point underdog vs. the Chiefs to 1-point favorite at 4:40 p.m. ET Monday at DraftKings. By Tuesday morning, the line was at -2.5 at DraftKings and across Las Vegas, although it then fell to -1.5 on Tuesday night.
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Because favorite flip is so unusual in a big game such as the AFC Championship, we posted the entire line history. This link shows every update (line, total, moneyline, % of bets, % of handle) from when the opening line was posted at 7:26 p.m. ET Sunday until 1:41 a.m. ET today.
Josh Appelbaum weighed in on the big line move.
“Pros and Joes seem to be united on Cincinnati," said VSiN’s betting market reporter. "Favorites have won straight up roughly 70% of the time in the Conference Championship game over the past 20 years. With Burrow 3-0 against KC and Mahomes limited with an ankle injury, it’s hard not to like the Bengals -120 on the moneyline. We’ve also seen some pro money hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 47. The under is receiving 31% bets but 48% money, a sharp under bet discrepancy.”
>More from Appelbaum here with Tim Murray and Shaun King on VSiN PrimeTime.
As for Mahomes, the official Monday word (well, two words) on his status came from coach Andy Reid: He’s “doing OK.”
In his new piece on Championship Round trends, VSiN’s Steve Makinen has one especially relevant data point now that the Bengals are favored:
There have been 10 road favorites in the last 26 years of the Conference Championship playoffs, and those teams are 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS. Most recently, Minnesota lost in 2018 to Philadelphia, 38-7 as a 3-point favorite.
