NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets:

The NFL Playoffs begin with a wide variety of lines. The home team is favored in four of the six games, as the top wild card team in each league is favored, but the four other wild card teams are in underdog roles. The weather doesn’t look too bad in the outdoor games, a blessing given the fact that we have games in Buffalo, Baltimore, and Philadelphia.

Of course, that could all change, but it looks like we should have some pretty straightforward handicaps for the first round of the postseason.

 

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Wild Card Weekend NFL bets:

Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 42.5) at Houston Texans

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

The 11-win Chargers hit the road to take on the 10-win Texans, as the spoils of being a division champion are on display. Houston was in a similar underdog spot last season against the Browns, who were 11-6 and went on the road to face the 10-7 hosts. The Texans won that game in blowout fashion, completely exploiting Cleveland’s secondary and harrassing Joe Flacco.

Will we see the Texans rise up in similar fashion here? I’m not sure that they will. CJ Stroud was 14th in Adjusted EPA/play during the regular season among quarterbacks with at least 288 plays. This season, he’s 29th of 36. Injuries at the wide receiver position haven’t helped, as he’s spent ample time without Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. The offensive line hasn’t helped either. But, neither has Stroud himself, whose interception total jumped from 5 to 12 this season and sack total went from 38 to 52, as he did play in two more games.

The Chargers offense ultimately finished the regular season 12th in EPA/play, but 18th in Dropback Success Rate and 27th in Rushing Success Rate. They were better as the season went along, especially with the pass, but they are largely a one-dimensional unit in my opinion. To beat up the Texans some more, it’s worth noting that they are 25th in EPA/play since Week 10.

So, I think the defenses win the day here. These two defenses were stout, with the Texans fifth in EPA/play and Chargers sixth. Jim Harbaugh’s team plays at a methodical pace and I don’t see we’ll see a ton of explosiveness from the Texans with Nico Collins as the only big-play WR. We’ll see some Joe Mixon against a stout Chargers front and I fully expect some negative plays with Stroud sacks.

Pick: Under 42.5

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 45.5)

Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET

The Packers and Eagles are both quality teams and it is a shame that they come together in the first round. One team is a better one, though, and it is the favorite. And I think that the group between the two teams is bigger than what the current market line is.

The Jalen Hurts concussion protocol situation probably had this line a little bit light at the outset and we’ve seen the move from 3.5 up to 4.5, but I think we should still be higher here. This Eagles team is No. 1 in the NFL in EPA/play on defense since Week 10. They’re also a top-five team by EPA/play. In both departments, the Eagles are three spots better than the Packers.

I just need the Packers to prove to me that they can beat a top-tier team. They lost to the Vikings and Lions twice. The Eagles have a better defense than the Lions and a better offense than the Vikings. Certainly there are little nuances and scheme changes between all the teams, but I’ll trust the Eagles and their collection of skill players alongside an elite defense.

Pick: Eagles -4.5

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