3 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins (-9.5, 40.5) at New York Jets
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The Dolphins (7-3) have rotated wins and losses over their last four games and just edged the Raiders 20-13 but failed to cover as 14-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Jets (4-6) have lost three straight games and just fell to the Bills 32-6, failing to cover as 8.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with the Dolphins listed as low as a 6-point road favorite. The public is all over Miami, with 77% of bets and 67% of money laying the points with the Dolphins. This lopsided support, along with the Jets’ decision to switch from Zach Wilson to Tim Boyle, has forced oddsmakers to adjust Miami up from -6 to -9.5. The line briefly reached the key number of -10, at which point some Jets buyback dropped the line back down to 9.5.
The Jets have notable contrarian value, receiving only 23% of bets in a standalone, heavily bet Holiday matchup. New York is only receiving 23% of bets but 33% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more, like the Jets, are 9-5 ATS this season and 101-61 ATS (62%) since 2018. New York also has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Pros have steamed the under. dropping the total from 42.5 to 40.5. Currently 45% of bets and 58% of money is taking the under, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. When the total falls at least a half point, the under is 63-35 (64%) this season. Outdoor divisional unders are 98-68 (59%) since 2021. The forecast calls for mid 40s, cloudy skies and 10-12 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 124-67 (65%) since 2021.
