Merry Christmas! I hope Santa gives you all the gifts you’re hoping for today, including backdoor covers, winning tickets and zero bad beats!
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Remember, you can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits. In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s NFL Christmas Day games.
1 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 40.5)
The Raiders (6-8) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 63-21 blowout win over the Chargers, easily covering as 3-point road favorites. Similarly, the Chiefs (9-5) just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 27-17 win over the Patriots, pushing as 10-point road favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as an 11-point road favorite. The public is undecided and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even 50/50 bet split we’ve seen the Chiefs fall from -11 to -10.5, signaling some respected money grabbing the points with the road dog Raiders. Divisional dogs are 195-161 ATS (55%) since 2020. Patrick Mahomes is just 9-13 ATS (41%) as a double-digit favorite in his career. The Raiders also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Chiefs played on Sunday. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 42.5 to 40.5. This movement is notable because 82% of bets are taking the over yet the total fell, signaling contrarian reverse line movement on a lower scoring game. The forecast calls for low 40s with 10-15 MPH winds and possibly some rain. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 130-72 (64%) since 2021.
4:30 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-14, 43)
The Giants (5-9) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Saints 24-6 and failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Eagles (10-4) have dropped three straight games and just fell to the Seahawks 20-17, losing outright as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Eagles listed as a 10-point home favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Eagles, steaming Philadelphia up from -10 to -14. The movement has been totally one-sided in favor of Philadelphia without any buyback on the Giants. The Eagles are only receiving 54% of bets but 61% of money, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 44 to 43. When both teams made the postseason the previous year, as is the case here, the under is 30-16 (65%) this season. Outdoor divisional unders are 104-73 (59%) since 2021.
8:15 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (-6, 46.5)
The Ravens (11-3) have won four straight games and just brushed aside the Jaguars 23-7, covering as 4-point road favorites. Similarly, the 49ers (11-3) have won six straight games and just crushed the Cardinals 45-29, covering as 12.5-point road favorites. This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. Early in the week, pros laid the points with San Francisco, steaming the 49ers up from -4.5 to -6. Currently 45% of bets and 57% of money is backing the 49ers, a sharp contrarian bet split. However, now that we’ve reached the key number of +6, it provides a buy-low inflated line value play on the Ravens. Lamar Jackson is 11-1 ATS (92%) as a dog in his career. John Harbaugh is 45-30 ATS (60%) as a dog. Primetime dogs are 116-88 ATS (57%) since 2020. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 58% ATS to the road team historically. Sharps have also leaned over, raising the total from 45 to 46.5. Currently 74% of bets and 78% of money is taking the over, signaling both public and sharp support.
