Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Sunday December 24

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Merry Christmas Eve!

 

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Remember, you can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s NFL Week 16 slate.

 

1 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers (-4, 38.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Packers (6-8) have lost two straight and just fell to the Buccaneers 34-20, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Panthers (2-12) just snapped a 6-game losing skid with a 9-7 win over the Falcons, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. This line opened with the Packers listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. The public sees a "get right" spot for Green Bay and currently 86% of bets are laying the points with the Packers. However, despite this heavily lopsided betting we’ve seen Green Bay fall from -5.5 to -4. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Panthers, with pros grabbing the points with the unpopular home dog. Carolina is the top contrarian play of the day, receiving only 14% of bets. When two teams who both missed the playoffs the previous year face off, the dog who is +3.5 or more is 164-135 ATS (55%) since 2018. Conference dogs +6 or less are 328-250 ATS (57%) since 2019. Sharps have also leaned over, as the total has risen from 36 to 38.5. The over is receiving 49% of bets but 63% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. 

 

1 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 44.5)

The Colts (8-6) have won five of their last six games and just crushed the Steelers 30-13, easily covering as 1.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Falcons (6-8) has lost five of their last seven games and just fell to the Panthers 9-7, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick’em. The public sees an easy win and cover with the better team and currently 77% of backing Indianapolis. However, despite this lopsided support toward the Colts we’ve actually seen this line jump to Falcons -3. Why would the oddsmakers move the number so far toward Atlanta if the public is hammering Indianapolis? Because pros have gotten down hard on the Falcons, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home team. The Falcons are only receiving 23% of bets but 42% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. Atlanta matches the classic "Fade the Trendy Dog" system, as pros look to fade popular dogs. The Falcons also have value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is favored. Those looking to embrace the sharp move but wary of laying the points because it’s moved so much could instead target Atlanta on the moneyline -150. 

 

1 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions (-2.5, 47.5) at Minnesota Vikings 

The Lions (10-4) are 2-2 over their last four games but just crushed the Broncos 42-17, easily covering as 5.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Vikings have dropped three of their last four games and just fell to the Bengals 27-24 in overtime, pushing as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Lions listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public can’t believe this line is so low and currently 82% of bets are laying the points with Detroit. However, despite this lopsided support we’ve seen Detroit fall from -3 to -2.5. This indicates smart money grabbing the points at home with the contrarian dog Vikings. Minnesota is only receiving 18% of bets but 31% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. Divisional dogs, like the Vikings, are 195-161 ATS (55%) since 2020. Those who missed the Vikings at the key number of +3 could instead target Minnesota in a teaser (+2.5 to +8.5), passing through multiple key numbers. Pros have also hit the over, raising the total from 45.5 to 47.5. The over is receiving 57% of bets but 70% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split.