Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Sunday November 12

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, LIVE from the DraftKings studio in Boston.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday’s NFL Week 10 slate.

 

9:30 a.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts (-2, 43) vs New England Patriots

This early morning showdown will be played in Germany as part of the NFL International Series. The Colts (4-5) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 27-13 win over the Panthers, covering as 1.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Patriots (2-7) have dropped five of their last six games and just fell to the Commanders 20-17, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with the Patriots listed as a short 1.5-point neutral site favorite. We’ve seen the line flip toward Indianapolis +1.5 to -2. In other words, the Colts are receiving sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. Indianapolis is currently taking in 69% of bets and 70% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Mac Jones is just 1-5 ATS as a dog this season and 4-14 ATS (22%) as a dog in his career. International favorites are 32-10 straight up (76%) and 28-15 ATS (65%). The Colts have a big advantage offensively, averaging 26 PPG (7th in the NFL) while the Patriots are averaging 15 PPG (31st). The Colts’ adjusted win total is 7.5 with the over juiced to -150 while the Patriots sit at 5.5 under -150.

 

1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 47)

The Texans (4-4) have won two of their last three games and just edged the Buccaneers 39-37 but failed to cover as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bengals (5-3) have won four straight games and just brushed aside the Bills 24-18, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Bengals listed as high an 8-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the red-hot Bengals. However, despite receiving 76% of bets we’ve seen Cincinnati fall from -8 to -6.5. Some shops are even down to -6. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Houston, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. Cincinnati is dealing with injuries, as WR Tee Higgins is out and WR Ja’Marr Chase is questionable. Houston is one of the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving only 24% of bets. Texans QB CJ Stroud is 4-1 ATS (80%) as a dog this season. 

 

4:05 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions (-3, 48.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

The Lions (6-2) have won five of their last six games and just took down the Raiders 26-14, covering as 7-point home favorites. Similarly, the Chargers (4-4) have won two straight and just beat the Jets 27-6, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a short 1-point home favorite. Smart money has gotten down hard on the Lions, steaming Detroit from +1 to -3, once again signaling sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. The Lions are receiving 73% of bets and 85% of money, indicating both public and wiseguy support. Detroit has a huge "rest vs tired" advantage as the Lions are coming off a bye while the Chargers are on a short week having played on Monday night. Road favorites off a bye are 64-37 ATS (63%) over the past 20 seasons. Detroit also has value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. Dan Campbell is 6-2 ATS this season and 29-13 ATS (69%) in his career. Those looking to back the Lions but wary of laying -3 could instead target Detroit -155 on the moneyline.